局域轨道交通系统规划编制思路和方法探讨——以上海市宝山区为例

宝山区作为上海市北部门户,要积极加强对外辐射和对内联系,推动上海大都市圈一体化协同发展,客观上需要进一步强化交通功能,完善综合运输体系,形成上海北部枢纽。从轨道交通市域线、市区线、局域线三个层次,对区内轨道交通系统规划编制思路、客流预测、线网规模、布局方案等进行了探讨,以期对区域总体规划编制提供参考和借鉴。     

新建包海通道西安至安康高速铁路速度目标值研究

随着中西部高速铁路的建设发展,在地形复杂地区选择经济合理的速度目标值方案,对于工程投资、运输质量、路网意义等方面尤为重要。新建西安至安康高速铁路行经秦巴山区,为合理确定速度目标值方案,结合西安至安康高速铁路为西渝高铁组成部分的特点,首先对西渝高铁速度目标值进行统筹研究,在分析客流特征、时间目标值的基础上,采用综合分析法、比较法对不同方案进行论证分析,推荐符合功能定位、与路网协调统一、经济性最优的350 km/h方案;进而对西安至安康高速铁路速度目标值进行细化研究,推荐与西渝高铁一致的350 km/h方案。研究结论满足西安至安康高速铁路的运输需求,与区域路网相协调,工程规模及投资水平适中,综合效益最优;同时对西渝高铁安康至重庆段标准选择提供技术支撑。     

青岛至连云港铁路运输组织模式研究

研究目的:青连铁路是一条承担中长途旅客运输和港口集疏运功能的干线铁路,速度目标值为200km/h,其旅客运输组织模式既不同于传统的既有客货混跑模式,也有别于纯客运专线的运输组织模式。如何合理确定青连铁路的运输组织模式,是影响青连铁路经济效益和社会效益的关键。研究结论:从旅行时间节省、能力利用均衡和动车组购置费等方面,经比较分析各种运输组织模式的适应性后,确定青连铁路性质为是以客运为主的客货混跑铁路,旅客列车采用动车组与普速旅客列车相结合的运输组织模式。该模式充分发挥了青连铁路的线路能力,极大满足了不同的客流需求,也兼顾了部分货物列车。     

Socially and environmentally appropriate urban futures for the motor car

In its relatively short life, the automobile has provided a level of mobility unlikely to have been feasible with a reliance on conventional forms of land based public transport. It has contributed in both a positive and negative way to the quality of life, transforming our cities, our way of life, and giving us a greater command over time and space. Concern over the undesirable social and environmental impacts has increased over time, with calls for governments to take action to reduce the automobile's dominant role. New investment in fixed-track public transport and bus priority systems together with strategies to discourage travel have been proposed to improve accessibility and to aid in cleaning up the physical environment. This paper reviews some of the issues facing society as it works to identify policies to achieve an economically and environmentally sustainabie future. There is a need for a broader set of policies to facilitate alternative land use-transport lifestyles while facing appropriate pricing signals. Some of the key issues are adjustments in the relative prices of location and transport, spatial incentives to make public transport economically viable (i.e. changing urban densities, zoning/incentive changes to allow more infill), road pricing (i.e. charging cars the economic cost of using the roads), new information technology systems (e.g. IVHS) to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of transport infrastructure, major improvements in the fuel efficiency of fossil fuelled vehicles, and alternative-fuelled vehicles (clean-air vehicles).     

论轨道交通对珠三角区域经济一体化的促进作用

珠三角区域城市群的崛起扩大了区域内交通需求规模,改变了交通需求结构,需要尽快形成以轨道交通网为骨干的区域快速公交走廊。阐述了轨道交通的建设与发展对区域经济一体化发展具有的经济诱发、开发先导、区位再造和资源创造等四大功能。提出了加强规划协调、创新发展理念、优化体制机制和给予政策支持等四方面的措施建议,以充分发挥轨道交通对珠三角区域经济一体化的促进作用。     

基于期权理论的铁路货运定价模型

为了规避铁路运输企业和协议客户在市场价格波动情况下所面临的风险,在铁路货运的定价过程中引入期权的概念,利用二叉树模型为期权定价,在此基础上构建了基于铁路运输企业和协议客户收益最大条件下的铁路货运定价模型。研究结果表明:通过铁路运输企业和协议客户的最优定价决策可以求得铁路运输企业制定的协议价格和协议客户的期权购买量;协议价格与现货市场价格正相关,与铁路运输企业的长期准备成本正相关、短期准备成本负相关;随着期权价格和期权执行价格的升高,协议客户在契约市场所购买的期权数量逐渐减少。     

Total cost analysis: An alternative to benefit-cost analysis in evaluating transportation alternatives

This paper explains the theory in support of total cost analysis (TCA) to compare transportation system alternatives. The full costs of each alternative are first aggregated, including travel time costs and monetizable environmental and social costs. Many costs which are considered on the benefits side of the equation in benefit-cost analysis (BCA) as "cost savings" are brought over to the costs side. Total cost differences among alternatives are then traded off against their estimated non-monetized benefits or impacts, just as a consumer trades off product quality against cost before deciding which product he or she will buy. One advantage of TCA over traditional BCA is that the concept of "total cost" is more easily understood by the public and by political decision-makers than BCA concepts such as "net present worth", "benefit-cost ratio" and "internal rate of return". A second advantage is that there is no suggestion that all "benefits" have been considered; decision-makers are free to use their own value judgements to trade off total cost against non-monetizable social, environmental and economic impacts, just as they trade off quality and convenience against cost when purchasing goods and services in their roles as consumers. The TCA approach is demonstrated in this paper through a case study of two systemwide alternatives for the Baltimore, MD urban area.     

Introduction: Habitual travel choice

In this introduction to the special issue on habitual travel choice, we provide a brief account of the role of habit in travel behaviour, discuss more generally what habitual choice is, and briefly review the issues addressed in the solicited papers. These issues include how habitual travel behaviour should be measured, how to model the learning process that makes travel choice habitual, and how to break and replace car-use habits.     

运用经济杠杆长效治理超载超限运输

分析了经济利益贯穿的货主—运输业户—车辆生产、改装厂家的超载超限运输链条的成因、现状和危害;提出了要从以核定载质量为依据转而以货车实际总重和轴载限额为依据对货车实施计重收费的思路,通过区别对待,体现公平,分步推进,累积治理,实现运用经济杠杆,达到长效治理超载超限运输的目的;阐述了江苏、河南、青海等省份实行计重收费所产生的积极效果以及他们推广的安排;提出在计重收费方法以及低速动态轴载称重设备精度、可靠度和价格方面还需要进一步探讨。     

公路交通经济增长中的制度因素分析

在总结传统的经济增长理论(资本决定论、技术进步论、人力资本论、专业化的人力资本和特殊知识积累论)的基础上,采用新制度经济学的分析方法,对建国以来中国公路交通的制度变迁和经济绩效及其相互关系进行了实证分析,指出了制度在公路交通发展中的极端重要性;提出了"生产要素的制度性边界"这一概念,指出制度边界具有随经济、技术等因素变化而不断变化的特性,在此基础上建立了新的经济增长分析框架和模型;为打破制度的"低度均衡",扩展生产要素的制度边界,最后提出了关于加快制度创新的建议。