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ABSTRACTThe purpose of maritime accident prediction is to reasonably forecast an accident occurring in the future. In determining the level of maritime traffic management safety, it is important to analyze development trends of existing traffic conditions. Common prediction methods for maritime accidents include regression analysis, grey system models (GM) and exponential smoothing. In this study, a brief introduction is provided that discusses the aforementioned prediction models, including the associated methods and characteristics of each analysis, which form the basis for an attempt to apply a residual error correction model designed to optimize the grey system model. Based on the results, in which the model is verified using two different types of maritime accident data (linear smooth type and random-fluctuation type, respectively), the prediction accuracy and the applicability were validated. A discussion is then presented on how to apply the Markov model as a way to optimize the grey system model. This method, which proved to be correct in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, is explored through empirical analysis. Although the accuracy of the residual error correction model is usually higher than the accuracy of the original GM (1,1), the effect of the Markov correction model is not always superior to the original GM (1,1). In addition, the accuracy of the former model depends on the characteristics of the original data, the status partition and the determination method for the status transition matrix. 相似文献
984.
Encouraging the use of public transport is a key policy goal in many countries. Therefore, public transport should offer the level of quality that accommodates the demands of current users, and importantly, the desires of potential users. This study investigates the influence of the perceived quality of bus service on the perception of both current and potential users. The study draws upon data from 512 questionnaires distributed across Belfast City in the UK. The study utilises a binary logistic regression model to quantify the relationships between the perceived quality of 29 bus indicators (independent) and the perceptions of users towards the overall bus service (dependent). Eleven significant indicators are reported to have significant influence on the perception of users. These indicators are utilised to propose scenarios for optimising the quality of bus service with the perceptions of current and potential users. 相似文献
985.
There are factors that impact car usage in urban areas, such as density, diversity and design, but there have been few studies that examine the relationship between street network factors and car usage at the city level (macro level). This paper focuses on this relationship by introducing urban street network variables, such as blocks per area, nodes per block and length of roads and motorways, as independent variables and the percentage of daily trips by private motorized modes as the dependent variable. The street network in this study includes interconnecting lines and points that present streets, roads, motorways, intersections and blocks. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using multiple linear regression. The findings of this research indicate that an increase in car usage is correlated with an increasing number of blocks per area, number of nodes per block and length of motorways. In addition, because the urban street network is the result of macro-scale planning decisions, considering this relationship can lead to better planning decisions. 相似文献
986.
反分析方法与计算机技术的结合使其功能越来越强,在实际工程中得到越来越多的应用与研究。采用反分析法确定边坡岩土体抗剪强度参数从而得出对滑坡治理的设计参数。基于简化Bishop法建立反分析极限平衡方程,并采用计算剖面多组单参数反演与统计比较分析相结合的方法,优化反算岩土抗剪强度参数值。该方法应用于某均值路堑滑坡治理工程并得以论证,表明了反分析法应用于滑坡治理的可行性与正确性。 相似文献
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济广高速公路平远(粤赣界)至兴宁段南山隧道位于广东省最大的采煤矿区境内。煤系层发育,开采预留的巷道、采空区交错分布。隧道具有小间距,浅埋、偏压、围岩软弱、采空区分布等特点,因此地质情况及隧道特点给施工带来了较大难度。隧道掘进中通过采空区时出现地表开裂、初支变形、侵限二衬、掌子面流塌等隐患,为了防止初支再次出现变形,针对采空区段采用短台阶留核心土开挖、超前小导管强支护,加大预留沉降量,工艺改进,加强监测等措施克服了采空区不良地质,缩短了掘进工期,保证了工程质量,确保了施工安全。 相似文献
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中面层在沥青面层中承担的荷载最大,是提高路面抗车辙能力的关键层。纤维沥青混合料具有良好的路用性能,日益受到工程界的关注,并在一些工程中得到应用。通过室内试验,对掺聚酯纤维沥青混合料的路用性能进行研究,并提出掺聚酯纤维沥青混合料的施工技术要点。 相似文献