A three-stage evacuation decision-making and behavior model for the onset of an attack

Pedestrian behavior models have successfully reproduced human movement in many situations. However, few studies focus on modeling human behavior in the context of terrorist attacks. Terrorist attacks commonly occur in crowded public areas and result in a large number of casualties. This paper proposes a three-stage model to reproduce a series of complex behaviors and decision-making processes at the onset of an attack, when pedestrians generally do not have clear targets and have to deal with fuzzy information from the attack. The first stage of the model builds a Bayesian belief network to represent the pedestrians’ initial judgment of the threat and their evacuation decisions. The second stage focuses on pedestrians’ global assessment of the situation through an analogy with diffusion processes. The third stage uses a cost function to reproduce the trade-offs of distance, safety, and emotional impact when considering a path to take. The model is validated using a video from the November 2015 Paris attack. The behavioral characteristics and trajectories of three pedestrians extracted from the video are reproduced by the simulation results based on the model. The research can be used to set rules when performing risk analysis and strategic defensive resource allocation of terrorist attacks using agent-based simulation methods.     

基于交通大数据的移动模式分析综述

交通大数据可为揭示交通主体显性出行行为背后的深层规律（即移动模式）提供重要基础。精确掌握大数据驱动下交通主体的移动模式，可为需求预测、客流组织、土地利用、事件管理等应用提供理论依据。交通大数据主体繁多、时空多态、关联性复杂的特性迫使小数据时代下的移动模式分析方法转型和升级，但仍可能遇到移动模式一致性表达难、异常类型检测难、复杂关联性表达难、时空多态性建模难、一体可视化分析难等普遍问题。针对这些问题，利用科学知识图谱，对2010~2020年期间3 747篇文献的热点关键词分布、发表趋势分布、出版刊物分布等特点进行归纳总结，结合常见的移动模式分析数据集，系统综述现有研究在移动模式常态分析、非常态分析、关联分析、预测分析和可视化分析方向上的阶段性进展。其中，移动模式常态分析综述了个体活动特性分析、出行类别划分、特定群体分析等应用的研究进展。移动模式非常态分析综述了基于模板匹配和数据驱动的非常态事件检测方法的发展脉络。移动模式关联分析综述了面向不同数据源的关联特性检测方法的发展近况。移动模式预测分析综述了基于数理统计和数据驱动的交通属性预测方法的发展状况。移动模式可视化分析综述了用户交互设计、移动模式宏观可视化、微观可视化和整体可视化的发展近况。最后，系统总结各个分支方向面临的主要问题与挑战，并从数据整合、模型创新、机制变革等角度提炼移动模式分析研究的未来发展趋势，期望为后续研究采用新理论技术开展移动模式分析提供参考。     

Beyond “Peak Car”: A reflection on the evolution of public sentiment about the role of cars in cities

In this volume, Jones has made a persuasive case for considering recently observed reductions in car use (and sometimes car ownership) in a number of major northern cities as part of an evolutionary process, rather than the consequence of transient conditions such as the economic downturn of 2008 and its relatively slow recovery. In an era bringing new service models for mobility and communications that have important implications for safety, security, the environment and well-being, he points to the role of public attitudes and sentiments that may underlie changing policy priorities and an associated culture change with respect to transport in cities and the reclamation of street space. This paper briefly explores the role of public sentiments and reflects on the apparent emergence of a popular subculture that favors living, if possible, without owning or using cars, in contrast to older subcultures embracing more extreme sentiments that are either Car-centered or emphatically anti-car.     

Walking-distance introduced queueing model for pedestrian queueing system: Theoretical analysis and experimental verification

We have introduced the effect of delay in walking from the head of a queue to the service windows in the queueing model and obtain a suitable type of queueing system under various conditions by both computational simulation and theoretical analysis. When there are multiple service windows, the queueing theory indicates that mean waiting time in a fork-type queueing system (Fork), which collects pedestrians into a single queue, is smaller than that in a parallel-type queueing system (Parallel), i.e., queues for each service window. However, in our walking-distance introduced queueing model, we have examined that mean waiting time in Parallel becomes smaller when both the arrival probability of pedestrians and the effect of walking distance are large. Moreover, enhanced Forks, which shorten waiting time by reducing the effect of walking distance, are considered, and parts of our results are also verified by real queueing experiments.     

城市公共交通无障碍设施一体化实施对策研究

公共交通无障碍设施的建设是以人为本、公交优先的具体体现,亦是城市功能和品质提升的必然要求。论文探讨了公共交通与可持续机动性的关系,并在分析公共交通无障碍建设的服务对象和内涵的基础上,针对我国城市公共交通无障碍设施的建设现状,从设施配置、工程设计、运营管理等方面提出公共交通无障碍设施一体化的实施对策。     

基于有效点导纳的机械设备激励特性的转换关系研究

针对机械设备安装到位后的振动预估问题,提出了一种基于有效点导纳的机械设备激励特性的转换方法。首先通过有效点导纳法将多点安装设备简化为多个单点安装设备,简化各个机脚之间的耦合作用;然后用自由速度作为设备的激励特性参数,建立不同安装基座的机械设备激励特性的转换关系;最后用弹性安装的电机进行了实验验证,将转换后基座振速的估算值与测量值进行对比分析。结果显示频率在20~1 000 Hz之间时,估算值总级的误差小于3 dB,表明该转换关系能够有效预估机械设备安装到位后的振动。     

Social influences on household location, mobility and activity choice in integrated micro-simulation models

Agent-based approaches to simulating long-term location and mobility decisions and short-term activity and travel decisions of households and individuals are receiving increasing attention in land-use and transportation interaction (LUTI) models to predict land-use changes and travel behaviour in mutual interaction. Social interactions between households and between individuals potentially have an influence on a wide range of the long-term and short-term choices involved in these systems. In this paper we identify the areas in which social interactions play a role and address the question how these influences can be modelled in the context of agent-based LUTI models. We distinguish impacts on activity participation (joint activity participation, support-and-help activities) and impacts on decision making (information exchange, social adaptation of preferences and aspirations) as the two main areas of social influence. A prototype of a LUTI model is proposed that accounts for impacts of the social network on longer-term mobility decision making through information exchange and social adaptation of preferences and aspirations. The model is demonstrated in a numerical simulation.     

汽车行人保护开发与研究进展

行人保护是汽车安全技术领域的前沿和热点问题。随着各国立法的推进,各汽车厂商面临的行人保护压力将越来越大。现行主要法规有EEVC系列、GTR、Euro NCAP等。文中综述了国内外行人保护研究的最新方法和技术,展望了行人保护技术的发展趋势和方向。面向行人保护的被动安全技术核心在于碰撞能量的吸收,主要的技术路线包括新材料的应用和安全结构的改进。而能避免事故发生的主动安全技术将逐渐成为汽车安全领域研究的新趋势。     

机械设备隔振系统的子结构建模方法研究

基于频响函数(FRF)的子结构方法是分析复杂组合结构的有效方法之一,其基本原理是使用单个非耦合的分量FRF通过阻抗或导纳方程构成总的系统响应。通过采用自由速度描述机械设备的激励特性,采用四端参数描述隔振器的阻抗特性,建立了机械设备隔振系统完整的子结构模型。经实测,获得了设备机脚的自由速度以及基座等结构的导纳矩阵,计算获得设备弹性安装后机脚和基座安装点的响应,并与测试结果进行了比较。分析表明,结果吻合较好,计算值与测试值的偏差基本在3 dB以内,能够满足工程要求。     

Fostering partnerships towards sustainable urban mobility from the national to local level: Matsuyama,Japan and Yogyakarta,Indonesia

This paper analyzes the implementation of Japan's and Indonesia's national frameworks aiming to promote sustainable urban mobility by placing transport policy coordination as pre-requisites under the decentralization regime. It takes two cities, Matsuyama and Yogyakarta, as the case studies. The analytical framework developed here highlights multi-level government coordination, coordination among local stakeholders, and regulator–operator coordination. The analysis is based on policy documents review, field observation, hearing and a questionnaire survey. The study shows some good practices as well as drawbacks of the schemes and produces lessons-learned from Japan's ‘omnibus town scheme’ to improve Indonesia's public transport program and for other cities in developing countries.