京津冀一体化轨道交通协调发展研究和展望

京津冀协同发展上升为国家战略,需要区域轨道交通协调发展来支撑和服务于区域一体化发展。从京津冀协同发展空间布局及产业转移的角度出发,提出各种轨道交通的层次及服务功能,在此基础上对轨道交通协调发展研究提出应抓住规划,处理好既有轨道交通与新增轨道交通、客货运主要通道与交通引导(TOD)、各种轨道交通间协调衔接等方面关系;加快投融资改革,实施同步建设;创新体制,实现管理协调发展;加大政策扶持,达到轨道交通可持续发展等方面进行研究,同时对区域轨道交通进行展望,对京津冀一体化轨道交通协调发展研究方向、研究领域和空间进行了浅议。     

Spatial fisheries ecology: Recent progress and future prospects

We review recent progresses made in the study of fish distribution and survival over space — i.e., fisheries spatial ecology. This is achieved by first surveying the most common statistical approaches and relative challenges associated with the analysis of fisheries spatial data, loosely grouped in geostatistical and regression approaches. Then we review a selected number of case-studies implementing the discussed techniques. We conclude by proposing new areas of statistical and ecological research to further our understanding of how fish distribute and survive in space. This review serves a dual purpose by emphasizing the scientific importance of studying spatial interactions to better understand the temporal dynamics of fish abundance, and by promoting the development of new analytical and ecological approaches for the analysis of spatial data. Through our survey we cover different statistical techniques, marine ecosystems and life stages. This analytical, geographic and ontogenetic variety is also purposely selected to highlight the importance of comparative and multidisciplinary studies across diverging ecological disciplines, ecosystems and life stages. Besides having a general ecological relevance this review also bears a more applied significance, owing to the increasing need for protecting renewable marine resources along with their primary habitat.     

Hydrographic conditions affecting two fishing grounds of Mallorca island (Western Mediterranean): during the IDEA Project (2003–2004)

This paper describes the hydrographic conditions observed during six surveys carried out during 2003 and 2004, in the framework of the “IDEA Project” (acronym for “Influence of oceanographic structure and dynamics on demersal populations in waters of the Balearic Islands”). The surveys were developed on the shelf and slope of Mallorca Island, in particular in two fishing grounds at the north and south of the Mallorca channel. Periodic movements of the fishing fleet between these two areas have been regularly reported, suggesting a seasonal variability of the resources which could be in turn associated with the hydrodynamic variability. With this motivation, water masses affecting these grounds have been identified and their seasonal variability has been studied. Different oceanographic and environmental conditions have been found between the two fishing grounds. These differences are related to the presence of mesoscale structures, associated with the Western Mediterranean Intermediate Water (WIW) at the north of the Ibiza channel and big gyres detached from the Algerian Current. The former has been shown to have influence on the regional oceanic circulation and the latter could affect the progress of fresh Atlantic Water (AW) towards the channels and make possible the presence of high salinity values at intermediate waters at the south of Mallorca Island. Historical data from other oceanographic cruises carried out in the region are finally used to discuss the interannual variability of these mesoscale structures.     

预处理技术对 RAP 组成与性能的影响

基于现场取样和室内试验，分析了铣刨方式对RAP组成与性能的影响，分析了铣刨速度、破碎处理与否对RAP级配组成的影响。结果表明:分层铣刨回收显著降低了RAP组成变异性；铣刨速度宜控制在6~8 m/min；破碎处理工艺有利于提高RAP的再生利用率。     

土性参数变异性对路堤稳定风险率影响分析

将有限元模拟、蒙特卡罗法与径向基理论相结合,建立了一个可用于评价土性参数变异性对路堤稳定风险影响的随机模型。以佛山"一环"南线K13+340为研究背景,分析了软土层粘聚力、摩擦角的变异性对路堤稳定风险率的影响,结果表明,软土层力学指标的变异性对路堤稳定风险影响显著,摩擦角的随机变异性对路堤稳定的平均影响大于粘聚力。     

高速公路沥青路面压实度控制现状及措施

压实度对高速公路沥青路面的路用性能和使用寿命有重要影响。依托重庆某高速公路工程的实际情况,开展沥青路面压实度分析研究。根据工程实测数据,分析高速公路沥青路面施工过程中压实度的质量控制现状,并由此提出提高压实度及减小压实度变异性的施工控制措施,对以后的高速公路沥青路面施工质量控制具有参考价值。     

Estimation of road profile variability from measured vehicle responses

When assessing the statistical variability of fatigue loads acting throughout the life of a vehicle, the question of the variability of road roughness naturally arises, as both quantities are strongly related. For car manufacturers, gathering information on the environment in which vehicles evolve is a long and costly but necessary process to adapt their products to durability requirements. In the present paper, a data processing algorithm is proposed in order to estimate the road profiles covered by a given vehicle, from the dynamic responses measured on this vehicle. The algorithm based on Kalman filtering theory aims at solving a so-called inverse problem, in a stochastic framework. It is validated using experimental data obtained from simulations and real measurements. The proposed method is subsequently applied to extract valuable statistical information on road roughness from an existing load characterisation campaign carried out by Renault within one of its markets.     

Quantifying travel time variability at a single bottleneck based on stochastic capacity and demand distributions

Travel time reliability, an essential factor in traveler route and departure time decisions, serves as an important quality of service measure for dynamic transportation systems. This article investigates a fundamental problem of quantifying travel time variability from its root sources: stochastic capacity and demand variations that follow commonly used log-normal distributions. A volume-to-capacity ratio-based travel time function and a point queue model are used to demonstrate how day-to-day travel time variability can be explained from the underlying demand and capacity variations. One important finding is that closed-form solutions can be derived to formulate travel time variations as a function of random demand/capacity distributions, but there are certain cases in which a closed-form expression does not exist and numerical approximation methods are required. This article also uses probabilistic capacity reduction information to estimate time-dependent travel time variability distributions under conditions of non-recurring traffic congestion. The proposed models provide theoretically rigorous and practically useful tools for understanding the causes of travel time unreliability and evaluating the system-wide benefit of reducing demand and capacity variability.     

Simulated responses of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia to variations in climate and anthropogenic nutrient loading

A mathematical model was used to simulate monthly responses of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia to variations in climate and anthropogenic nutrient loading over a 45-year period. We examined six hypothetical future scenarios that are based on observed and projected changes in the Mississippi River discharge, Mississippi River nitrate concentrations, and ambient water temperatures. In particular, we investigated the implications of a 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrogen flux, which was recently proposed by the Mississippi River Watershed/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force as a measure to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone. Model simulations suggest that the frequency of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico is highly sensitive to variations in riverine nitrate flux, but also to variations in freshwater discharge and ambient water temperatures. A 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrate flux, for example, would reduce the frequency of hypoxia by 37%. Nevertheless, a 20% increase the Mississippi River discharge, which may occur under some climate change scenarios, would produce an increase in the frequency of hypoxia of the same magnitude. Thus, if the potential climatic variations are taken into account, a 30% decrease in the nitrogen flux of the Mississippi River may not be sufficient to accomplish the proposed hypoxia management goal.