航班快速恢复建模与仿真研究

随着民用航空的发展与竞争,航班延误不仅影响航空飞行的安全与正常,更与航空公司的运营效率、运营成本及乘客利益息息相关。针对某一恶劣天气影响,对某公司受影响航班进行重新调配,考虑到航班的备降、盘旋等待、延误、取消等多种状态,以总成本最小为目标函数,建立航班快速恢复模型,通过MATLAB运用遗传算法设计航班恢复算法进行求解,得出最经济的航班恢复方案。     

轿车衣帽架钣金处声学包的优化设计

目前,汽车的NVH性能受到越来越多消费者的关注,而电动汽车的蓬勃发展也为NVH性能设计带来了新的挑战,尤其是高频噪声带来的挑战。因此,应对高频噪声的声学包的优化设计便尤为重要。文章通过对某三厢电动车进行路试评价,得到后排乘客抱怨来自衣帽架处的高频噪声的结论,进而进行了密封测试,传递函数测试以及对噪声路径进行分析优化设计。结果表明,若要降低来自衣帽架处的高频噪声,首先要密封住车内噪声传递路径上多余的孔洞,其次要减小必要的总开孔面积。最后在布置空调通风孔位置时,提出优化设计噪声路径,使噪声在吸音棉上的有效路径最长来达到优化声学包的目的。     

A maritime safety on-board decision support system to enhance emergency evacuation on ferryboats

Planning emergency evacuation operations in a proactive manner in public marine transportation systems is a critical success factor for passenger and crew safety. Despite the fact that there is a growing attention on safety issues for marine transportation systems, providing a real-time decision support for evacuation planning under different emergency conditions has not yet been addressed. In this context, this paper contributes to the related literature by providing a comprehensive methodology including simulation and statistical analysis along with a three-module decision support system (DSS) for ferryboat emergency evacuation. Emergency evacuation and fire environment are simulated via Maritime EXODUS V5.1 and SMARTFIRE V4.3, respectively. The methodology is applied to a real-life Ro-Ro ferry, and the results not only revealed significant factors on emergency evacuation performance, but also demonstrated the validity of the developed decision support system.     

基于多叉树的延误高速列车运行优化调整方法

高速列车高密度的运行模式，使列车运行对延误的敏感度非常高.因此，延误高速列车运行调整成为一个重要的研究问题.本文基于高速铁路列车运行特点，建立了高速铁路列车运行关系模型.在此基础上随机添加列车延误，设计区间加速、按图行车、减少停站时间、减少越行、增加越行、按最小间隔时间顺延及按延误时间运行等 7种列车运行调整方法.以各列车在各车站的总延误时间最小为优化目标，建立延误高速列车运行优化调整模型，并设计了基于分阶段多叉树的延误高速列车运行优化调整算法以实现延误后列车运行的调整，从而得到最优调整方案及列车在各车站的延误总时间.最后以京沪高速铁路实际运行图作为案例进行计算分析，证明该模型和算法的有效性和可行性.     

Effects of shadow evacuation on megaregion evacuations

Transportation systems serve important roles during emergencies, in particular for evacuations. However, efficient travel during these life-and-death scenarios can be adversely impacted by external conditions, such as unnecessary and unneeded travel. This research sought to enhance the understanding of the effects of these conditions by analyzing shadow evacuations, and their impact on regional traffic operations in megaregions, more broadly. The research was based on simulations of a range of hurricane evacuation threat scenarios in the Gulf of Mexico building upon prior study using TRANSIMS. These assessments are also targeted at what many assume could be worst case evacuation conditions and pushing the limits of current simulation modeling capability. Among the broader findings of this work was that shadow evacuation participation rates did not significantly impact the evacuation clearance times within mandatory evacuation areas of the megaregion as long as demand could be temporarily spread out. This finding does not, however, suggest that the shadow evacuations have no impact on evacuation processes. High rates of shadow evacuees can cause significant congestion if they are not able to exit critical routes before mandatory evacuees reach areas further away from the coast.     

基于时延特性建模的多断面短时交通流预测

针对现有交通流预测方法未充分考虑多断面车流演变规律，提出基于时延特性建模的时空相关性计算方法. 该方法采用对不同断面、不同时刻交通流的分布相似性度量，对输入的车辆到达数据序列进行切割构建时空相似度矩阵，得到相邻断面之间的时延参数. 基于时延特性建模，将多断面之间的流量信息进行融合，使用长短时记忆(LSTM)网络进行流量预测. 通过对实际路段数据的预测和结果分析，验证所提方法的有效性和实用性.     

Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew

This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.     

信号交叉口行人二次过街下右转车通行能力与延误估计模型

在充分分析典型四相位交叉口行人二次过街设置前、后的行人流与右转车流冲突的前提下，以行人过街时间占有率和行人群到达分布作为分析指标，利用可插车间隙理论得出行人单向通行和双向通行条件下的右转车通行能力计算公式；根据行人流随机消散和集中消散的不同特征，应用随机分布理论推导出右转车穿越行人流的延误模型；并通过算例对比分析行人二次过街设置前、后右转车通行能力和延误的变化值。结果表明，除了在少数行人流量比较大的情况下， 行人二次过街的设置会小幅度减少右转车的延误；在其他大多数情况下，行人二次过街设置后， 右转车的通行能力将受到限制，延误增大，其中，平均通行能力降低了16.68%，平均延误时间增大 了21%，所以，当右转车交通需求较大时，需同时考虑行人和右转车的交通运行状态，优化设计是否采用行人二次过街，避免右转车超出极限忍耐时间而增大与行人冲突的概率。     

带自由液面有限长圆柱绕流数值模拟

[目的]为了探究自由液面及自由端对典型钝体绕流问题的影响,对带自由液面的有限长圆柱绕流进行研究。[方法]基于延时分离涡模拟(DDES)技术和分段线性界面重构(PLIC)方法,利用自主开发的naoe-FOAM-SJTU求解器开展数值模拟。[结果]结果显示,自由液面和自由端的存在增大了局部位置的升、阻力,推迟了圆柱表面流动分离的发生;相较于深吃水位置,自由液面附近流向的速度"恢复"延缓,横向的速度呈向外运动的趋势;自由液面的变形产生了大量细碎的漩涡,自由端的卷拧状漩涡在一定程度上抑制了卡门涡街的发展。[结论]研究表明,目前采用的数值方法能够准确捕捉复杂流场,同时,自由液面和自由端的存在将显著改变流场沿吃水方向的分布。     

航班延误信息下旅客选择行为模型及实证

针对航班延误后旅客选择行为的不确定性，本文基于累积前景理论对不同延误情景下旅客的选择行为进行研究.首先，以期望出行时间作为旅客行为选择的参照点，构建航班延误信息下旅客选择行为模型，并指出在不同延误情景下参照点具有动态性特征；然后，利用调查问卷，得到准时到达敏感性、信息影响程度两个参数值及不同延误情景下旅客对出行时间的判断，计算得到期望出行时间；最后，以北京-上海航线为例，计算得到不同延误情景下旅客不同选择行为的累积前景值，从而得到旅客的最优选择行为.结果表明：随着航班延误规模的增大及延误时长的增加，旅客的期望出行时间随之增长，体现了参照点动态性的特点；在不同的延误情景下，旅客的最优选择行为有所差异；通过实际验证，理论模型能有效地描述旅客在不同延误情景下的选择行为.