Fueling for contingencies: The hidden cost of unpredictability in the air transportation system

The aviation community is increasing its attention on the concept of predictability when conducting aviation service quality assessments. Reduced fuel consumption and the related cost is one of the various benefits that could be achieved through improved flight predictability. A lack of predictability may cause airline dispatchers to load more fuel onto aircraft before they depart; the flights would then in turn consume extra fuel just to carry excess fuel loaded. In this study, we employ a large dataset with flight-level fuel loading and consumption information from a major US airline. With these data, we estimate the relationship between the amount of loaded fuel and flight predictability performance using a statistical model. The impact of loaded fuel is translated into fuel consumption and, ultimately, fuel cost and environmental impact for US domestic operations. We find that a one-minute increase in the standard deviation of airborne time leads to a 0.88 min increase in loaded contingency fuel and 1.66 min in loaded contingency and alternate fuel. If there were no unpredictability in the aviation system, captured in our model by eliminating standard deviation in flight time, the reduction in the loaded fuel would between 6.12 and 11.28 min per flight. Given a range of fuel prices, this ultimately would translate into cost savings for US domestic airlines on the order of $120–$452 million per year.     

效用函数在工程成本风险预测中的构建

分析风险预测准确程度进行评价的意义,提出了将风险可预测性作为风险预测准确程度的评价指标,并以效应理论为基础构造风险可预测性效用函数,实现了风险预测结果的评价,验证了风险预测的准确性和可靠性.     

顺层边坡失稳分析及预测研究

关于边坡失稳的预测预报,已有半个多世纪的研究进程,到目前为止仍处于探索阶段。边坡的失稳演化过程中与其内部结构和外界因素的影响密切相关。通过对摩擦定律的状态分析,研究了边坡失稳的内在机制,并论证了边坡失稳预测的充要条件,探讨了中长期预测预报失效的原因。     

效用函数在工程成本风险预测中的构建

分析风险预测准确程度进行评价的意义,提出了将风险可预测性作为风险预测准确程度的评价指标,并以效应理论为基础构造风险可预测性效用函数,实现了风险预测结果的评价,验证了风险预测的准确性和可靠性.     

交通强国背景下智慧交通发展趋势展望

交通强国建设是新时代做好交通工作的总抓手。“人民满意、保障有力、世界前列”的交通强国建设，对智慧交通的发展提出了新的要求。为更好地对接《交通强国建设纲要》，明确智慧交通发展方向，在进一步理解把握交通强国建设要求的基础上，研究智慧交通的技术、业务及效果特征变化；对支撑智慧交通的大数据、互联网、人工智能、区块链、超级计算等新技术的发展趋势进行综述，分析并指出新兴技术与智慧交通行业需求深度融合的发展趋势；结合研究团队的技术积累和研究方向，介绍了建筑信息建模、虚拟现实、数字孪生、人工智能等信息新技术在智慧交通中的应用探索；对交通强国背景下智慧交通的发展趋势进行展望。研究指出，新时代智慧交通的发展应强化前沿关键科技研发，打造富有活力的交通科技创新体系，推动交通发展由依靠传统要素驱动向更加注重创新驱动转变，全面支撑交通强国建设。     

基于非线性时间序列分析的短时交通流特性分析

利用非线性时间序列分析方法对从时间一维角度出发对短时交通流的特性进行定性、定量分析。首先简要介绍了递归图和定量递归分析方法,以1min为间隔的实测交通流量数据为例,选取1d中不同的4部分,用递归图从定性方面可视化其动力学特性,然后用定量递归分析得到各部分的量化特征值,并对结果做出分析。结果表明短时交通流时间序列具有非线性、非平稳的特性,在不同的时段内分别具有随机性、混沌性和确定性。这一研究结果对短时交通流的预测具有一定的理论价值和实际意义。     

Theoretical Explanation of Return Predictability Based on Stock Price Formulation

To find out which factors determine stock return and to give rational explanation of return predictability, according to the principle of stock price formulation, the trend of stock price is obtained by use of option pricing method. The trend of stock price is put into reconstructing CAPM （capital asset pricing model） beta; it is concluded that the firm-specific biases and the scale biases potentiaUy induce return predictabih＇ty. In addition, through the relation between the biases structure and the intrinsic value, an appropriate theoretic explanation is supplied for three-factor pricing model proposed by Fama and French.     

基于安全的公路功能分类探讨

公路功能分类和通行能力直接相关,干线公路要保证大通行能力,地方公路要便利,集散公路既要有一定的通行能力又要有一定的便利性,不同功能的公路的设计特征因此而有所不同。不同公路功能分类的公路设计特征、交通特征不同,其安全性也必然不同。我国公路考虑安全如何进行功能分类?本文通过归纳、总结国内外在公路功能分类、公路设计、公路安全计划等方面的实践经验以及相关研究成果,初步分析了我国公路分类存在的问题,探讨了公路功能分类和安全的关系,提出我国考虑交通安全的理想的公路功能分类,以及相关的研究、工作的建议。     

Future aspects in marine ecosystem modelling

Existing ecosystem models are briefly presented and summarised. The problem of coupling physical and biological models as well as aspects of prediction and predictability are discussed. The general perception that marine ecosystems are inherently unpredictable due to non-linearity becomes questionable if the response of climate variability in marine ecosystems is analysed. Many authors have shown correlations between climate variability and the variability of abundance or biomass of marine organisms such as phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos or fish recruitment in different parts of the world ocean. In the northern hemisphere, certain species show a linear response to climate variability mainly during winter and spring. However, the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Often, a phase lag can be observed between climate variability and the reaction of organisms. The identification of a plausible mediator between climate and biology is difficult, since all possible physicochemical mechanisms having a direct or indirect influence on the variability of abundance or biomass of marine organisms have to be considered as mediator.The understanding of the reason of the phase lag, which possibly implies a “biological memory”, and the identification of all possible mediators are necessary to predict the response of marine organisms to climate variability. The identification of mediators will result in an improvement of coupled models, a deeper understanding of physical–biological interaction and the improvement of predictive capability of marine ecosystem models.     

交通流可预测性分析

交通流的可预测性是进行短期交通流预测的基础。本文首先判别了短期交通流的混沌特性，求解出表征交通流“蝴蝶效应”的最大Lyapunov特征指数，在此基础上按照交通流动力系统运动轨道的演化特点求解出最大可预测时间，但是交通流系统是开放的复杂巨系统，最大可预测时间涉及到的影响因素很多，论文分析了交通流历史数据样本的大小和数据中含有的噪声对交通流可预测性的影响和随着预测步长的增加，交通流可预测性的衰减特征，得出交通流可预测性是一个综合指标，不能仅仅以最大Lyapunov指数的倒数来确定，应综合分析考虑。论文得到的结果在实际的交通流数据中得到了验证。