A local model for the simulation of two–dimensional spilling breaking waves

A numerical model for the simulation of two dimensional spilling breaking waves is described. It is derived from a previous model which, in turn, takes its underlying ideas from the Cointe and Tulin theory of steady breakers. With respect to the former model, the present one is local, i.e., the inception, extension, and geometry of the breakers are determined through the local shape of the water surface. The model has been implemented in a RANSE code, which was developed for the simulation of ship flows, through a modification in the boundary conditions. This yields a simple and effective way to reproduce the breakers influence on the underlying flow. The resulting code has been used to simulate the flow past a submerged hydrofoil. The numerical results are compared with those of the previous model and with the experimental data obtained by Duncan.     

A risk model for the operation of container vessels

Commercial shipping of containerized goods involves certain risks for human safety and environment. In order to actively manage these risks, they must be identified, analyzed, modeled, and quantified. This requires a systematical analysis of design and operation of container vessels. Within the EU-funded research project SAFEDOR, a Formal Safety Assessment has been applied to establish the current safety level of generic container ships and to identify potential cost-effective risk control options. This paper describes a structured approach to develop the underlying high-level risk model. It is structured as risk contribution tree consisting of a series of fault trees and event trees for the major accident categories. Statistical analysis of casualty data is used to estimate the probability of occurrence. Finally, the summation overall individual risk contributions yields the current risk pro file for the operation of container vessels is presented as FN-curve.     

Dominance among alternatives in random utility models

In many discrete choice contexts the actual choice set, including the alternatives effectively perceived and considered by the decision maker, may substantially differ from the universal choice set, including all available alternatives: one of the most relevant examples within transport demand simulation is probably the choice of destination, wherein the universal choice set normally includes hundreds of traffic zones. In these cases, proper simulation of the choice set is crucial for correct simulation of the choice context.In this regard, our paper has two main objectives. The first is to give a general contribution to choice set modelling by extending and applying the concept of dominance among alternatives to the framework of random utility theory. The main result is the definition of a methodology for the generation of new dominance attributes, which can be used in choice set modelling. The second aim is to make a specific contribution to destination choice modelling: dominance attributes are defined from the above methodology and introduced into this choice context, and new spatial variables reproducing better knowledge of zones with a privileged spatial position are also proposed. Methodology and attributes are tested both on synthetic and on real data.     

统计学在近代中国的演变——从社会统计到数理统计

从19世纪末期至20世纪初期,统计学在中国完成了从传入到发展的第一个进程.在近半个世纪的时间里,中国统计学的发展浓缩了西方统计学近两百年的发展历程,较之其他的西学知识在近代中国的传播和发展,统计学的历史则表现出了其自身的独特性,这种发展受到当时的社会政治、经济、文化等方面的影响甚大.这是由当时中国的社会背景以及统计学这门学科知识的特殊性质所决定的.     

Natural and anthropogenic hydrocarbons in the water column of the Ross Sea (Antarctica)

In the framework of the Italian Research Programme in Antarctica (PNRA) an oceanographic cruise was carried out between December 2000 and February 2001 in the Western Ross Sea. n-Alkanes and PAHs concentrations were analysed in sea-water samples collected at different depths at four sites (D, B, CA2, and CA). Vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, salinity and fluorescence were also performed in order to distinguish the water masses present in the sampling areas. n-Alkanes concentrations were consistent with those found in the same area during previous expeditions and showed higher values in the particulate due to the low temperatures. n-Alkanes profiles exhibited different features in the dissolved and particulate phases. The dissolved phase was characterised by a bimodal distribution with two maxima at C16 and C24 and prevalent compounds in the range C15–C32 whereas particulate was strongly dominated by long chain n-alkanes C23–C34 with C24 (Site B, CA and CA2) or C32 (Site B) as Cmax. CPI values and Pr/Ph ratios suggested a prevalent biogenic origin for aliphatic hydrocarbons. n-Alkanes vertical distributions were affected by the dynamic of the pack-ice melting and phytoplankton activity as well by the chemical–physical properties of water masses. Higher n-alkanes values were found in the High Salinity Shelf Waters (HSSW), lower n-alkanes values were found in the Antarctic Surface Waters (AASW) and Modified Circumpolar Deep Water (MCDW).The low PAHs concentration levels confirmed the still pristine character of the Antarctic environment. Neither particular trend in total PAHs concentrations along the water column and nor correlations with the most characteristic water masses of the investigated area of the Ross Sea were observed, except that total PAH higher concentrations were generally observed in correspondence of HSSW.     

Evaluation of green wave policy in real-time railway traffic management

In order to face the expected growth of transport demand in the next years, several new traffic control policies have been proposed and analyzed both to generate timetables and to effectively manage the traffic in real-time. In this paper, a detailed optimization model is used to analyze one such policy, called green wave, which consists in letting trains wait at the stations to avoid speed profile modifications in open corridors. Such policy is expected to be especially effective when the corridors are the bottleneck of the network. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies on the real-time effects of using this policy. To this end, this work shows a comparison of the delays obtained when trains are allowed or not to change their speed profile in open corridors. An extensive computational study is described for two practical dispatching areas of the Dutch railway network.     

建成环境对步行和自行车出行的影响--以波哥大为例

哥伦比亚波哥大以可持续的城市交通系统闻名,包括其密集的自行车道网络以及Ciclovía系统——为骑车者和行人预留的道路空间,可在星期日和节假日休闲出行使用。探讨此类设施以及建成环境的其他属性——城市密度、混合用地、可达性以及与公共交通车站的距离——如何影响步行和自行车出行行为以及Ciclovía的使用。结果表明,道路设施设计要素例如道路密度、连通性、与Ciclovía车道的距离,与体力活动相关;而建成环境的其他属性如密度和用地混合程度,对体力活动影响甚微。这可能是由于波哥大建成区的大部分街区均在非机动交通出行占绝对优势的时期演变发展——紧凑、用地混合、交通可达性水平相似。由此可见,影响非机动交通出行的因素是设施设计而非一般的街区用地属性。