Reducing the cost of peak hour transit service through contracting out service

Transit service contracting has responded to fiscal and financial woes of public transit agencies as the most uniquely attractive cost‐saving strategy at present. Most transit service contracting, however, has been in the traditional provision of entire fixed route bus service or commuter express bus service, and exclusive demand responsive service for the general public or for special disadvantaged population groups such as the elderly and/or the handicapped. This paper presents a new module in transit service contracting whereby the public and private operators jointly provide the peak service on the same route and at the same time. While the public agency provides the base demand of the service, the private provider provides the excess demand, both following the same schedules and similar service arrangements. In this paper, proposed service arrangements, costing and contracting procedures are discussed. It is also reported that substantial cost savings ranging from 32 to 57% with an average savings of 48% can be achieved if the excess peak hour bus transit service on highly peaked routes in public transit agencies is contracted to competing private operator(s).     

Preoperational ocean forecasting in the southeastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and evaluation of the models and selection of the atmospheric forcing

Within the framework of several local and international programs, a quasi-operational ocean-forecasting system for the Southeastern Mediterranean Sea has been established and evaluated through a series of preoperational tests. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) is used for simulating and predicting the hydrodynamics while the Wave Model (WAM) is used for predicting surface waves. Both models were set up to allow varying resolution and multiple nesting. In addition, POM was set up to be easily relocatable to allow rapid deployment of the model for any region of interest within the Mediterranean Sea. A common requirement for both models is the need for atmospheric forcing. Both models require time varying wind or wind stress. In addition, the hydrodynamic model requires initial conditions as well as time dependent surface heat fluxes, fresh water flux, and lateral boundary conditions at the open boundaries. Several sources of atmospheric forcing have been assessed based on their availability and their impact on the quality of the ocean models' forecasts. The various sources include operational forecast centers, other research centers, as well as running an in-house regional atmospheric model. For surface waves, higher spatial and temporal resolution of the winds plays a central role in improving the forecasts in terms of significant wave height and the timing of various high wave events. For the hydrodynamics, using the predicted wind stress and heat fluxes directly from an atmospheric model can potentially produce short range ocean forecasts that are nearly as good as hindcasts forced with gridded atmospheric analyses. Finally, a high-resolution, nested version of the model has shown to be stable under a variety of forcing conditions and time scales, thus indicating the robustness of the selected nesting strategy. For the southeastern corner of the Mediterranean, at forecast lead times of up to 4 days the high-resolution model shows improved skill over the coarser resolution driving model when compared to satellite derived sea surface temperatures. Most of the error appears to be due to the analysis error inherent in the initial conditions.     

Temporal variations of water flow between the Venetian lagoon and the open sea

Long-term measurements of the water flow at three Venice Lagoon inlets with the bottom-mounted ADCPs show that the main part of the variance (>90%) is associated with the tidal variability. Semi-diurnal constituents (mainly M2 and S2) are responsible for about 80% of the flow variance. Phase-lag between the axial current and sea-level is on the order of 2 h for M2 and 4 h for the K1, the maximum inflow leading the sea-level maximum. Phase-difference of tidal flows between inlets shows that Chioggia leads both Malamocco and Lido, suggesting that tidal signal progresses northward, thus in the opposite direction of both the semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal signals in the open Adriatic currents. The sea-level slope between the open sea and the lagoon interior controls the inlet flow, which is due to the time lag being constant for all tidal constituents. It was shown that tidal oscillations at Punta Salute (lagoon interior) lag those in Lido by about 45 min. The pressure gradient due to the sea-level slope generates the flow acceleration. Only for large current speeds (>0.5 m/s), the bottom friction term becomes equally important as the local acceleration and the horizontal pressure gradient terms. Wind effects manifest as a remote forcing through Adriatic seiches at semi-diurnal and diurnal scales, and as a local forcing at very long time scales on the order of a month. This latter mechanism is limited to a winter period (November–January). Seiches are present over the entire year, being however, more energetic and frequent during autumn and winter.     

An actuary method for the estimation and comparison of urban bus transit cost of services

This paper presents a new cost allocation method developed for estimating the fully-allocated costs of the excess peak hour bus transit service provided by two public transit systems. The estimates were produced for the explicit purpose of carrying out a realistic comparison of these costs and the costs of the potential provision of the same service by private operators. The method utilizes the same service data for the analysis. The pragmatic estimation of the fully allocated costs of service by the public and private sectors enables a more accurate estimation of potential cost savings. Sensitivity analysis was also performed using the same costing procedure to determine the range of cost savings that are feasible in a competitive contract arrangement of private sector providers. The new method separates costs of the direct provision of service from other indirect costs and thus facilitates the identification of each cost item and its significance in comparative cost estimates.