The role of intention as mediator between latent effects and behavior: application of a hybrid choice model to study departure time choices

Transportation - An increasing number of papers are focusing on integrating psychological aspects into the typical discrete choice models. The majority of these studies account for several latent...     

Generating synthetic baseline populations from register data

The paper presents a population synthesiser based on the method of Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) algorithm developed for the new Danish national transport model system. The synthesiser is designed for large population matrices and allows target variables to be represented in several target constraints. As a result, constraints for the IPF are cross-linked, which makes it difficult to ensure consistency of targets in a forecast perspective. The paper proposes a new solution strategy to ensure internal consistency of the population targets in order to guarantee proper convergence of the IPF algorithm. The solution strategy consists in establishing a harmonisation process for the population targets, which combined with a linear programming approach, is applied to generate a consistent target representation. The model approach is implemented and tested on Danish administrative register data. A test on historical census data shows that a 2006 population could be predicted by a 1994 population with an overall percentage deviation of 5-6% given that targets were known. It is also indicated that the deviation is approximately a linear function of the length of the forecast period.     

Introducing synthetic pseudo panels: application to transport behaviour dynamics

Transportation - In this paper, a method to study travel behaviour dynamics by constructing detailed synthetic pseudo panels from repeated cross-sectional data is presented. The method is based on...     

基于PLPS调研方法的步行和自行车交通规划设计评估

开展系统性的步行、自行车交通调研和实证分析,对于弥补城市相关基础数据不足、梳理现状问题、指导规划设计、评估实施效果等有重要意义,有助于改善城市步行和自行车出行环境、引导市民绿色出行.首先介绍了PLPS调研的目的及具体方法,包括公共生活和公共空间两部分调研.以重庆市渝中半岛步行交通示范项目实践为例,探讨PLPS方法在项目...     

Autonomous vehicles in mixed motorway traffic: capacity utilisation,impact and policy implications

In upcoming years, the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) will reshape the transport system. The transition from a regular to an autonomous transport system, however, will take place over many years and lead to a long period with a mixed driving environment where AVs and regular vehicles (RVs) operate side by side. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the utilisation of the road capacity degrades as a function of heterogeneity in congested motorways. The analysis is based on a dedicated traffic simulator, which enables the investigation of complex dynamic spillback from congestion while allowing for different degrees of heterogeneity. The representation of autonomous vehicles is based on a modified intelligent driver model (IIDM) presented by Treiber et al. (Phys Rev E 62(2):1805–1824, 2000) and Treiber and Kesting (Traffic flow dynamics, Springer, Heidelberg, 2013), while the behaviour of drivers of RVs relies on a stochastic version of the IIDM. Three main conclusions stand out. Firstly, it is shown that in an idealised environment in which AVs operate alone, a substantially improved capacity utilisation can be attained. Secondly, when drivers of RVs are mixed with AVs, capacity utilisation degrades very fast as a function of the share of RVs. Thirdly, it is shown that the improved capacity utilisation of AVs comes in the form of reduced travel time and increased throughput, with indications that travel time reductions are the most important. From a strategical planning perspective, the results underline that dedicated lanes are preferable to attain the positive effects of AVs. Specifically, we compare a stylised situation with three lanes with a share of 33% AVs to a situation with two regular lanes and a single dedicated AV lane. The latter represents a tripling in consumer surplus all other things being equal.

     

Cost damping and functional form in transport models

Transport models allowing for cost damping are characterised by marginally decreasing cost sensitivities in demand. As a result, cost damping is a model extension of the simple linear-in-cost model requiring an appropriate non-linear link function between utility and cost. The link function may take different forms and be represented as a non-linear-in-parameter form such as the well-known Box–Cox function. However, it could also be specified as non-linear-in-cost but linear-in-parameter forms, which are easier to estimate and improve model fit without increasing the number of parameters. The specific contributions of the paper are as follows. Firstly, we discuss the phenomenon of cost damping in details and specifically why it occurs. Secondly, we provide a test of damping and an easy assessment of the (linear) damping rate for any variable by estimating two auxiliary linear models. This turns out to be an important guidance as the damping rate largely dictates which link functions are appropriate for the data. Thirdly, inspired by the Box–Cox function, we propose alternative linear-in-parameter link functions, some of which are based on interpolation of approximate Box–Cox end points, and others which are inspired by Taylor Expansions. The different functions are tested in simulation experiments and subsequently in a large-scale demand model based on more than 22,000 revealed preference observations. It is concluded that the use of properly specified linear-in-parameter functions gives good data fit and sometimes even outperforms the Box–Cox functions without increasing the number of parameters.     

世界级城市街道重建策略研究——以上海市黄浦区为例

长期以来受以车为主导的规划建设理念影响,中国许多城市新建、改建道路存在尺度失衡、品质降低、活力不足等问题。首先介绍纽约、伦敦、哥本哈根、莫斯科、墨尔本等世界级城市街道重建实践经验。以上海市黄浦区为例,采用公共生活—公共空间(PLPS)调研方法,对34处地点进行行人流量调查,并针对5个公共空间进行停留活动统计。由此分析黄浦区现状街道网络的主要问题与诉求,进而提出街道重建的规划设计策略及措施推进时序。以南京东路为示范项目,探讨其现存问题并提出具体改造方案。