Past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is one of many aquatic ecosystems that show long-term declines in dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations due to anthropogenic alteration of the biogeochemical Si cycle. Reductions in DSi in aquatic ecosystems have been coupled to hydrological regulation reducing inputs, but also with eutrophication, although the relative significance of both processes remains unknown for the observed reductions in DSi concentrations. Here we combine present and historical data on water column DSi concentrations, together with estimates of present river DSi loads to the Baltic, the load prior to damming together with estimates of the long-term accumulation of BSi in sediments. In addition, a model has been used to evaluate the past, present and future state of the biogeochemical Si cycle in the Baltic Sea. The present day DSi load to the Baltic Sea is 855 ktons y^− 1. Hydrological regulation and eutrophication of inland waters can account for a reduction of 420 ktons y^− 1 less riverine DSi entering the Baltic Sea today. Using published data on basin-wide accumulation rates we estimate that 1074 ktons y^− 1 of biogenic silica (BSi) is accumulating in the sediments, which is 36% higher than earlier estimates from the literature (791 ktons y^− 1). The difference is largely due to the high reported sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Sea and the Bothnian Bay. Using river DSi loads and estimated BSi accumulation, our model was not able to estimate water column DSi concentrations as burial estimates exceeded DSi inputs. The model was then used to estimate the BSi burial from measured DSi concentrations and DSi load. The model estimate for the total burial of BSi in all three basins was 620 ktons y^− 1, 74% less than estimated from sedimentation rates and sediment BSi concentrations. The model predicted 20% less BSi accumulation in the Baltic Proper and 10% less in the Bothnian Bay than estimated, but with significantly less BSi accumulation in the Bothnian Sea by a factor of 3. The model suggests there is an overestimation of basin-wide sedimentation rates in the Bothnian Bay and the Bothnian Sea. In the Baltic Proper, modelling shows that historical DSi concentrations were 2.6 times higher at the turn of the last century (ca. 1900) than at present. Although the DSi decrease has leveled out and at present there are only restricted areas of the Baltic Sea with limiting DSi concentrations, further declines in DSi concentrations will lead to widespread DSi limitation of diatoms with severe implications for the food web.     

Alterations in nutrient limitations — Scenarios of a changing Baltic Sea

Previous trend studies have shown increasing nitrogen and phosphorus as well as decreasing silica concentrations in the water mass of the Baltic Sea. This has had an impact on the amount of primary production, but also on the quality and succession of plankton species. Present study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of potential nutrient limitations in the Baltic Sea for the time period 1970–2000. Generally, low concentrations of DSi can limit the diatom blooms and such conditions are found in the Gulf of Riga and Gulf of Finland during spring and summer. Nutrient ratios, DSi:DIN, DSi:DIP and DIN:DIP, are often used to determine which nutrient may limit the primary production. Annual long-term temporal trends of silica to inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus respectively show consistent decreasing patterns. The largest slopes are detected during spring and summer for DSi:DIN and during spring for DSi:DIP ratios. For the DIN:DIP ratio significant slopes are only found in a few locations despite increasing levels for both nutrients, displaying a large variation in trends. In the open Baltic Proper the present trends are positive during winter and negative during spring and autumn. Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga are areas where both DSi:DIP and DSi:DIN ratios are found close to the Redfield ratios for diatoms. Together with the evaluated trends these suggest that the Gulfs may become silica limited in a relatively near future. These findings give some implications on the development and impact of changing nutrient concentrations.