Simple Identification of Some Coastal Marine Habitats by Modeling with Sea-Chart Data

A simple numerical model was applied to distinguish permanently oxygenated marine sill basins from periodically anoxic basins in Nordland County, northern Norway. Input data are sill depth, width of the tidal channel, sea surface area, and tidal range. The model produces a Topography Tidal Factor (TTF) that seems to be an adequate index correlating with empirical field data when sills have saddle depths <30 m. The depth of the pycnocline, and the oxygen concentration of the basin water increases logarithmically with the calculated TTF value toward an asymptotic level. At TTF ≥0.02 basins are mostly well-oxygenated and have a permanent fauna of epibenthic and hyperbenthic animals. Basins with TTF <0.02 may become anoxic each autumn, which permanently prevents establishment of communities with multi-annual sessile benthos. Low oxygen concentration may also cause seasonal variation in the occurrence of motile species. In tidal channels, the abundance of bivalves and fish, as well as the biodiversity in general, probably increases with TTF. The applied method may be universally valid in regions shaped by glacial erosion but needs to be further developed by more detailed studies.     

Norwegian North Sea action programme: Analysis of measures to reduce nutrient inputs

According to the terms of the Ministerial Declaration on the Protection of the North Sea, input of the nutrients phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) to the coast from the Norwegian‐Swedish border to Lindesnes should be reduced by about 50% between 1985 and 1995. The State Pollution Control Authority (SFT) has analyzed how Norway can achieve this reduction in the most cost‐effective way and at the same time achieve the greatest possible improvement in water quality along the Norwegian coast and in its watercourses.

Two alternative sets of measures were analyzed, both of which would meet the requirements of the Declaration. The lowest‐cost alternative would have average annual costs of about NKr 930 million (U.S.S150 million), and investments of about NKr 4000 million (U.S. $643 million). However, this set of measures would not take account of local water quality, and measures would therefore not always be introduced where the need is most pressing. SFT proposed that an alternative set of measures be implemented, almost all of which would also help to achieve local goals for water quality. This alternative will have annual costs of about NKr 980 million (U.S.$158 million), and investments of about NKr 4100 million (U.S.$659 million).     

Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects

This paper investigates an issue largely ignored in the transport literature on cost overruns, namely, cost increases in the early project phase, long before the decision to build is made. This is the phase of project planning that is referred to as the front-end phase in the literature. The rationale of the study is that unless cost estimates during the front-end phase are relatively accurate, the wrong projects may be selected for further development. We first argue for why it is important to address cost escalation during the front-end phase of project planning. We then use Norwegian data to demonstrate the magnitude of cost escalations during the front-end phase of projects and in comparison to the implementation phase. We find that even in a sample of projects with relatively small cost overruns as in the case of Norway, there are substantial cost increases before the formal decision to build was made. This raises the issue of whether decisions and priorities taken at the early stages of project development are based on false information and whether this may lead to the wrong project concepts being selected.     

Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea

There is an increasing number of ecological models for the North Sea around. Skogen and Moll (2000) [Skogen, M.D., Moll, A. 2000. Interannual variability of the North Sea primary production: comparison from two model studies. Continental Shelf Research 20 (2), 129–151] compared the interannual variability of the North Sea primary production using two state-of-the-art ecological models, NORWECOM and ECOHAM1. Their conclusion was that the two models agreed on an annual mean primary production, its variability and the timing and size of the peak production. On the other hand, there was a low (even negative dependent of area) correlation in the production in different years between the two models.In the present work, these conclusions are brought further. To try to better understand the observed differences between the two models, the two ecological models are run in an identical physical setting. With such a set-up also the interannual variability between the two models is in agreement, and it is concluded that the single most important factor for a reliable modeling of phytoplankton and nutrient distributions and transports within the North Sea is a proper physical model.     

Yardsticks on the road: Regulatory contracts and cost efficiency in the Norwegian bus industry

In this paper a cost frontier model is estimated for an eleven-year panel of Norwegian bus companies (1136 company-year observations) using the methodology proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995). The main objective of the paper is to investigate to what extent different type of regulatory contracts affect company performance. The panel model proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995) allow for year/company specific efficiency measures to be estimated. Thus, unobservable network or other time invariant characteristic of the operating environment can be controlled for by analyzing the dynamics of measured productivity across time for firms regulated under different types of contracts, rather than relying solely on variations across companies during one time period. Therefore, the paper offers methodological and data advantages over previous work on this subject. The main and robust result of the paper is that the adoption of a more high-powered scheme based on a yardstick type of regulation significantly reduces operating costs. The results contained in this paper thus confirms theoretical predictions regarding the incentive properties of high powered incentive schemes and in particular the dynamic benefits of yardstick competition.     

Ex-Post Evaluations of Demand Forecast Accuracy: A Literature Review

Abstract

Travel demand forecasts play a crucial role in the preparation of decision support to policy-makers in the field of transport planning. The results feed directly into impact appraisals such as cost–benefit analyses and environmental impact assessments, which are mandatory for large public works projects in many countries. Over the last few decades, there has been increasing attention given to the lack of demand forecast accuracy. However, since data availability for comprehensive ex-post appraisals is problematic, such studies are still relatively rare. This study presents a review of the largest ex-post studies of demand forecast accuracy for transport infrastructure projects. The focus is threefold: to provide an overview of observed levels of demand forecast inaccuracy, to highlight key contextual and methodological differences between studies and to highlight key focus areas for future research in this field. The results show that inaccuracy remains problematic for road, rail and toll projects alike, but also how the lack of methodological clarity and consistency calls for a careful interpretation of these results. Mandatory, systematic ex-post evaluation programmes are suggested as a necessary tool to improve decision support, as data availability for ex-post studies is often remarkably poor even for internal audits.     

纤维光学提高了建模精度

新开发的安装在海底的永久性纤维光学地震监控系统,大大提高了近海石油行业海底建模精度,并加快了石油开采速度。     

Operating costs in Norwegian toll companies: a panel data analysis

The objective of this paper is to ease the planning of new toll projects by providing estimates of operating costs, and to help us make better informed decisions about the design of toll collection systems. To do so we use panel data for Norwegian toll companies to estimate average cost functions. The main results can be summarised as follows. We provide evidence of very important unexploited economies of scale. The estimated cost curves are very steep for traffic levels below the sample mean, and become almost entirely flat over a wide range above the sample mean. A higher share of vehicles using on board units will significantly reduce average costs. Competitive tendering will significantly reduce average operating costs by as much as 25%. Our results also suggest that increased number of lanes, higher debt and passenger charging will increase average operating costs whereas average operating costs are lower for toll cordons compared with other projects.