Assessing the representativeness of a smartphone-based household travel survey in Dar es Salaam,Tanzania

The household travel survey (HTS) finds itself in the midst of rapid technological change. Traditional methods are increasingly being sidelined by digital devices and computational power—for tracking movements, automatically detecting modes and activities, facilitating data collection, etc.. Smartphones have recently emerged as the latest technological enhancement. FMS is a smartphone-based prompted-recall HTS platform, consisting of an app for sensor data collection, a backend for data processing and inference, and a user interface for verification of inferences (e.g., modes, activities, times, etc.). FMS, has been deployed in several cities of the global north, including Singapore. This paper assesses the first use of FMS in a city of the global south, Dar es Salaam. FMS in Dar was implemented over a 1-month period, among 581 adults chosen from 300 randomly selected households. Individuals were provided phones with data plans and the FMS app preloaded. Verification of the collected data occurred every 3 days, via a phone interview. The experiment reveals various social and technical challenges. Models of individual likelihood to participate suggest little bias. Several socioeconomic and demographic characteristics apparently do influence, however, the number of days fully verified per individual. Similar apparent biases emerge when predicting the likelihood of a given day being verified. Some risk of non-random, non-response is, thus, evident.     

Evaluation of forced flows on freeways with single‐loop detectors

This paper documents the development of a simple method for identifying and/or predicting freeway congestion using single loop detection systems. The proposed algorithm is simple and easy to incorporate into most freeway management systems. The Washington State Department of Transportation's Traffic Systems Management Center (TSMC) sponsored the original study. The investigation also led to a recommendation to replace the original TSMC definition of congestion or forced flow conditions with a more reliable indicator. Although, the TSMC has recently implemented a more advanced prediction system based on fuzzy set theory and neural networks to further identify patterns and rules for ramp metering strategies, the findings presented here continue to be constructive to freeway managers looking for quick and easy analyses that rely solely on single‐loop detection systems. The Seattle Area freeway study section used for the original study was the portion of mainline 1–5 northbound starting at the downtown Seattle Station 108 and ending at the Mountlake Terrace Station 193. Several days' worth of volume and lane‐occupancy data were collected for the afternoon time period from 2:30 p.m. to 6:30 p.m. Time intervals of 20 seconds were chosen for each data collection period. Important products of this research include the following:

• simple, and more reliable criterion for the definition of “bottleneck” or forced flow conditions than that originally used by the TSMC.
• simple, and reliable criterion for predicting impending “bottlenecks” or forced flow conditions.
• A proposed variable for improved selection of the appropriate metering rate. (Further analysis of the use of this variable for determining metering rates is recommended for future studies.

The proposed criteria are simple and easy to incorporate into current freeway management computer systems. Further investigation of freeway performance measurement using volume and occupancy data obtained from single‐loop systems is currently being performed.     

Simulated responses of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia to variations in climate and anthropogenic nutrient loading

A mathematical model was used to simulate monthly responses of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxia to variations in climate and anthropogenic nutrient loading over a 45-year period. We examined six hypothetical future scenarios that are based on observed and projected changes in the Mississippi River discharge, Mississippi River nitrate concentrations, and ambient water temperatures. In particular, we investigated the implications of a 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrogen flux, which was recently proposed by the Mississippi River Watershed/Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force as a measure to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone. Model simulations suggest that the frequency of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico is highly sensitive to variations in riverine nitrate flux, but also to variations in freshwater discharge and ambient water temperatures. A 30% decrease in the Mississippi River nitrate flux, for example, would reduce the frequency of hypoxia by 37%. Nevertheless, a 20% increase the Mississippi River discharge, which may occur under some climate change scenarios, would produce an increase in the frequency of hypoxia of the same magnitude. Thus, if the potential climatic variations are taken into account, a 30% decrease in the nitrogen flux of the Mississippi River may not be sufficient to accomplish the proposed hypoxia management goal.     

Investigating the link between cyclist volumes and air pollution along bicycle facilities in a dense urban core

In this paper we explore the air pollution levels along types of bicycle facilities using a NO₂ land use model previously developed for Montreal. We explore potential associations between bicycle volumes through signalized intersections and pollution levels at those intersections. We further investigate this relationship through the comparison of over thirty cycling corridors as well as an evaluation of the potential exposure of cyclists to air pollution along five routes. We observe NO₂ concentrations to be positively correlated with bicycle flows at the intersection level. We also observe that corridors with either a bicycle path or cycle track generally rank higher in terms of bicycle volume and also have higher NO₂ concentrations than corridors without bicycle facilities. This indicates that intersections and bicycle facilities with a large number of cyclists are also those characterized with the highest air pollution levels.     

Measuring the completeness of complete streets

A tool for measuring the “completeness” of a complete street has applications in developing policy, prioritising areas for infrastructure investment for a network, and solving the right-of-way allocation problem for individual streets. A literature review was conducted on the state-of-art in the assessment complete street designs. Complete streets assessment requires a context-sensitive approach, thus context-sensitive standards of “completeness” must first be established by combining a street classification system with sets of priorities and target performance levels for the different types of streets. Performance standards should address a street’s fulfilment of the movement, environmental, and place functions, and be flexible enough to account for the many ways that these functions of a street can be fulfilled. Most frameworks reviewed are unsuitable for evaluating complete streets because, with few exceptions, they guide street design by specifying the design elements for inclusion on the street. Secondly, the performance of a street can be assessed according to transportation, environmental, and place criteria, and compared to the target performance levels specified by the street’s classification. As there are many different impacts to consider on a street, additional work is required to define the priorities and performance objectives for different types of streets.     

ISM Code implementation: an investigation of safety issues in the shipping industry

Acknowledging that shipping safety continues to be a major topic of interest in the maritime community, the present study attempts to identify the critical factors of International Safety Management (ISM) Code implementation, to identify the dimensions that describe whether the ISM Code has fulfilled its intended purpose as well as to assess their interrelationships. Moreover, the present study aims to explore whether the fulfillment of the Code’s intended purpose is associated with accident reduction. Evidence was drawn from a sample of 63 masters and chief officers who have hands-on onboard experience on ISM Code implementation and data were analyzed through the use of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), correlation analysis, and binomial logistic regression. Findings indicate that the critical factors of ISM Code implementation can be categorized in the crew-related and the company-related dimensions. Also, the fulfillment of the intended purpose of the ISM Code consists of the factors of safety management system efficiency and increased safety, which were also found to be significantly associated with the crew-related dimension of ISM Code implementation. Finally, results showed that both safety management system efficiency and increased safety increase the probability of accident reduction at the highest level.     

Use of the box and Jenkins time series technique in traffic forecasting

This paper explores the use of recently developed time series techniques for short term traffic volume forecasts. A data set containing monthly volumes on a freeway segment for the years 1968 through 1976 is used to fit a time series model. The resulting model is used to forecast volumes for the year 1977. The forecast volumes are then compared to actual volumes in 1977. The results of this study indicate that time series techniques can be used to develop highly accurate and inexpensive short term forecasts. A discussion of the ways in which such models can be used to evaluate the effects of policy changes or other outside impacts is included.     

Lancaster sound regional study: Coastal and marine resource planning in the Canadian high arctic

Abstract

The Lancaster Sound Regional Study serves as a pilot project for regional planning in the Arctic. Probably the most biologically productive area of all arctic regions, Lancaster Sound represents a unique Canadian heritage. And since it occupies the strategic eastern entrance to the Northwest Passage, the Sound has long been a summer shipping route. Now, proposals are under review that would permit year‐round shipping of oil and gas from the Beaufort Sea by means of ice‐breaking tankers. Also proposed are the exploration and development of possible hydrocarbon reservoirs within the Sound. Actual decisions for the area's use must respect the interests of the native Inuit who have lived there for centuries as well as the preservation of the environment. This paper describes the preliminary phase of the regional planning for the region: the preparation of a public discussion paper to elicit informed comment and opinion on future uses of the Sound. It is a first step toward recommending suitable management and use options for the region.     

A planning model for multiple‐mode transportation system operations

The problem of generating a set of “good” transportation alternatives during the early and intermediate stages of transportation planning is addressed in this paper. A linear programming model of a multi‐modal transportation system is developed. The model is run interactively to determine optimal operating levels for all modes for various transport policy decisions. The model described is a component of a composite network generation model incorporating dynamic changes. The linear programming component determines optimal operating policies for given points in time. The composite model incorporates these in a dynamic programming framework to determine optimal staged investment policies over several time periods.     

Investigating Information Requirements for Evaluating Effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas—Indonesian Case Studies

Identifying the information needs of managers and other stakeholders is an important first step in designing an evaluation of management effectiveness for marine protected areas (MPAs) that will be relevant to local circumstances and useful for improving management practices. Information requirements for evaluating effectiveness were investigated at two MPAs in Indonesia. Results show that, despite similar management objectives, information needs for evaluation differ between sites and those differences reflect the unique context within which management operates in each case. The scope of information needs at each site covers a broad range of issues including context, planning, resources, processes, outputs, and outcomes. Relevant components of a variety of different evaluation tools will need to be used to satisfy information needs at these sites. Evaluation tools that are based primarily on stated management objectives or the expressed views of a few key stakeholders are unlikely to be very useful for improving management in these cases.