Circulation features in the Japan/East Sea related to statistically obtained wind patterns in the warm season

A response of the circulation in the Japan/East Sea (JES) to different kinds of wind forcing is studied, with the emphasis on the warm season, using a primitive equation oceanic model. Wind forcing is based on typical patterns obtained from complex empirical orthogonal functions of 1°-gridded NCEP/NCAR 6 h winds for 1998–2005. These patterns are distinguished by a prevailing wind direction. Northwestern wind and strong cyclonic (C) curl prevail in winter, while a variety of patterns occur in the warm season, differing in the wind direction and curl. Three model runs are performed to examine the circulation in response to a prevailing C wind stress curl or an alternating C and anticyclonic (AC) curl or a strong C curl in the warm season. The simulated features are consistent with the observational evidence, in particular with thermal fronts and frequent eddy locations derived from multi-year infrared satellite imagery. The simulated C circulation intensifies and the subarctic region extends southward with the strengthening of a summer C wind stress curl over the JES. Variability of Subarctic Front (SF) in the western JES (between 130°E and 133°E) is strongly affected by summer wind stress curl. Forcing by an AC curl tends to shift SF northward, while SF shifts to the south under the forcing by a C curl, reaching the southern Ulleung Basin in the case of the strong C curl. In the northwestern JES (off Peter the Great Bay, Russia, and North Korea), the SF northwestern branch (NWSF) is simulated. It is a known feature in autumn and early winter and can also occur in the warm season. The simulation results suggest an AC wind stress curl as the forcing of the formation of the NWSF in the warm season. The Siberia Seamount and sharply bending coastline near Peter the Great Bay facilitate partial separation of the Primorye (Liman) Current from the coast. The wind stress curl can be an additional forcing of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) branching off the Korea Strait to the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) and the offshore branch (OB). In the warm season, the simulated TWC bifurcation occurs farther north, the EKWC is strong, and the OB is weak under the forcing of the AC wind stress curl. The EKWC is weak and the OB is strong under the forcing of the strong C wind stress curl.     

A note on the consistent aggregation of nested logit demand functions

The present paper derives a set of rules allowing for the consistent aggregation of nested logit travel demand functions across origin and destination zones. Presented aggregation rules are derived for the case when the mode choice is performed conditional on destination choice. The derivation is based on the principles of consistency between aggregate and disaggregate travel demand models introduced by Sweet as well as upon the sampling theory.     

建成环境对步行和自行车出行的影响--以波哥大为例

哥伦比亚波哥大以可持续的城市交通系统闻名,包括其密集的自行车道网络以及Ciclovía系统——为骑车者和行人预留的道路空间,可在星期日和节假日休闲出行使用。探讨此类设施以及建成环境的其他属性——城市密度、混合用地、可达性以及与公共交通车站的距离——如何影响步行和自行车出行行为以及Ciclovía的使用。结果表明,道路设施设计要素例如道路密度、连通性、与Ciclovía车道的距离,与体力活动相关;而建成环境的其他属性如密度和用地混合程度,对体力活动影响甚微。这可能是由于波哥大建成区的大部分街区均在非机动交通出行占绝对优势的时期演变发展——紧凑、用地混合、交通可达性水平相似。由此可见,影响非机动交通出行的因素是设施设计而非一般的街区用地属性。     

Measuring uncertainty in discrete choice travel demand forecasting models

In transportation projects, uncertainty related to the difference between forecast and actual demand is of major interest for the decision-maker, as it can have a substantial influence on the viability of a project. This paper identifies and quantifies discrete choice model uncertainty, which is present in the model parameters and attributes, and determines its impact on risk taking for decision-making applied to a case study of the High-Speed Rail project in Portugal. The methodology includes bootstrapping for the parameter variation, a postulated triangular distribution for the mode-specific input and a probabilistic graphical model for the socio-economic input variation. In comparison to point estimates, the findings for mode shift results in a wider swing in the system, which constitutes valuable information for decision-makers. The methodology, findings and conclusions presented in this study can be generalized to projects involving similar models.