An application of a rank ordered probit modeling approach to understanding level of interest in autonomous vehicles

Surveys of behavior could benefit from information about people’s relative ranking of choice alternatives. Rank ordered data are often collected in stated preference surveys where respondents are asked to rank hypothetical alternatives (rather than choose a single alternative) to better understand their relative preferences. Despite the widespread interest in collecting data on and modeling people’s preferences for choice alternatives, rank-ordered data are rarely collected in travel surveys and very little progress has been made in the ability to rigorously model such data and obtain reliable parameter estimates. This paper presents a rank ordered probit modeling approach that overcomes limitations associated with prior approaches in analyzing rank ordered data. The efficacy of the rank ordered probit modeling methodology is demonstrated through an application of the model to understand preferences for alternative configurations of autonomous vehicles (AV) using the 2015 Puget Sound Regional Travel Study survey data set. The methodology offers behaviorally intuitive model results with a variety of socio-economic and demographic characteristics, including age, gender, household income, education, employment and household structure, significantly influencing preference for alternative configurations of AV adoption, ownership, and shared usage. The ability to estimate rank ordered probit models offers a pathway for better utilizing rank ordered data to understand preferences and recognize that choices may not be absolute in many instances.     

Differences in single heavy vehicle crashes at intersections and midblocks

The objective of this research is to identify the factors differentiating between single heavy vehicle collisions at intersections and midblocks by using a binary logit model. Our results show that single vehicle crashes involving heavy vehicle at intersections are more likely to occur on main roads and highways, whereas crashes at midblocks are more likely to occur on divided two‐way roads, roads with special facilities or features (e.g. bridge) and roads with a higher percentage of heavy vehicle traffic. Intersection crashes are also more likely to involve vehicles that are turning left or right, resulting in angle crashes and vehicle overturn, whereas midblock crashes are more likely to involve vehicles on higher posted speed roads. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factors Influencing Behavior in a Boating Speed Zone

The greatest source of human-related mortality for endangered Florida manatees is collisions with watercraft. Regulation of boat speeds is the principal management tool to minimize this threat. Demands on law enforcement limit their ability to monitor boater behavior and managers seek alternative strategies to increase compliance. The purposes of this study were to: (1) explore the effectiveness of an on-site sign to enhance boater compliance in a boating speed zone, and (2) examine the environmental and boating characteristics that influence the probability of compliance. Signs designed to increase compliance were posted halfway through the 18-week study period. The signs were not related to compliance level. Logistic regression models showed that only time of day and boat type were significantly related to compliance. Results suggest that passive methods of persuasion may not be an effective means of influencing boater behavior.     

A human factors systems approach to examining oil spills in tankbarge operations: analysis and reappraisal of management policies

An important problem in the US maritime industry is the large number of oil spills that occur as a result of oil transfer operations involving tankbarges. Recently, the US Coast Guard initiated a new programme entitled Prevention Through People that represents a concerted effort towards preventing human errors leading to casualities and oil spills. The purpose of the study reported in this paper was to explore tankbarge oil transfer operations from the standpoint of regulatory, management, and operational perspectives in order to determine the likelihood that this new initiative will indeed result in a better understanding of the causal basis for human error in these operations and, more generally, in the maritime industry. The results of this novel study are discussed and summarized in terms of four broad classes of recommendations.     

Sustainability perspectives when crop use is implemented in different sectors: A life cycle assessment approach

The present study aims to provide a preliminary overview of the sustainability concept when biomasses conceived for food goals become the raw materials upon which different sectors, such as plastic or energy industry, can develop innovative strategies, according to a so called ??greener?? competitiveness. In the results hereafter presented, the definition of sustainability perspectives, according to the use of a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, will be described for maize use as raw material in different sectors. The current biopolymer industry and conventional biofuel technologies, the so called first-generation biofuels, are the more and more in competition with the food sector. The presented environmental evaluation, in terms of air emissions, energy and water consumption, is useful in order to understand the sustainability of a bio-sourced product, in comparison with the equivalent item produced by fossil fuels.     

Past,present, and future of the satellite-based automatic identification system: areas of applications (2004–2016)

In 2016, the world shipping fleet grew by 3.5%. Even if the annual growth rate remains at its lowest since 2013, the global situation is still in overcapacity (UNCTAD 2016). Ninety percent of global trade, by volume, is done by sea. Monitoring this fleet helps with vessel navigation, informing to help avoid critical situations such as collisions, accidents leading to oil pollution, grounding, or ships in distress, but also because traffic management in congested areas is essential. For system wide management, in regions such as MPAs (marine protected areas), conservation is the key factor, and movements can be monitored and analyzed in order to determine illegal or suspicious activities, or in order to limit and/or divert traffic, to mitigate the risks to species subject to protection. It is among these efforts that the automatic identification system (AIS) can play a key role. Since 2004, this VHF transceiver-based reporting system, imposed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), has shifted from a traditional vessel identification device to a tool used in a wide variety of applications. The most common uses are safety and security; these issues are quite visible in the media and may touch more people on a global scale (e.g., piracy, oil spills). Over the years, AIS has become, especially with the emergence of the satellite-based capture of the signal in 2011, a widely used tool for developing applications such as fisheries monitoring, marine conservation, air pollution forecasting and modeling, ballast water monitoring, invasive species transport, and many more. In this paper, we propose to review the peer-reviewed publications related to the uses and applications of the AIS.     

Multi-level forces and differential effects affecting birth cohorts that stimulate mobility change*

This paper presents a dynamic model at three levels to understand changing mobility trends at the population level. A multi-level framework is proposed that enables existing research and analysis to be considered in a more holistic sense. This framework assists in identifying predictions and transition pathways for different birth cohorts, particularly as they reach older age. This has the aim of bringing about a greater understanding of the socio-demographic influence on mobility trends, with a focus on the cultural transitions that affect birth cohorts differently in terms of their travel behaviour. The framework presented here captures the multi-level forces and structural effects that impact mobility. The paper examines how these forces and effects interact at different levels to influence the changing mobility of birth cohorts at different points in time. Examining the simultaneous operation of these levels is of conceptual importance to assist in the interpretation of mobility trends, as well as understanding future mobility implications, of future generations.     

Nautical training systems and the occupational behaviour of seamen: the Israeli experience

One of the most serious and persisting problems confronting the shipping companies of all the developed maritime nations is the retention of seafarers who will yield long periods of service at sea. Turnover and wastage involves considerable expenses in recruiting and training of new seafarers. One of the means for the recruitment and retention of seafarers is the vocational nautical school system. In contrast to general education, where the objectives are diffuse, vocational institutions have very specific functions. Their achievements are therefore generally measured by means of the relative number of graduates who enter and remain in the industry for which they were trained. The present study examines the problem of the commitment to the maritime occupation of graduates of nautical schools in Israel in recent years, and it attempts to evaluate nautical education by examining the proportion of graduates who actually entered the maritime occupation and the extent of their stability at sea. No attempt is made to evaluate the economic efficiency of the nautical training system.     

Residual stress distributions in ship hull specimens

This paper provides an in-depth study of residual stress distributions found in stiffened steel plate structures, such as those typically used in ship hulls. The effect of stiffener spacing on the distribution of residual stress components was studied. The welding heat input was also varied between high and moderate to study the effect of heat input level on residual stress distributions. Four specimens, resembling typical stiffened steel plate structures used in ship hulls were built and tested. Steel plates of 9.5 mm thickness were stiffened by welding L127 × 76 × 9.5 steel angles. The test was completed using the neutron diffraction method. The three normal components of residual stress were obtained in this study. It was found that a lower heat input results in higher tensile residual stress and that there exists a critical stiffener spacing somewhere beyond 250 mm that creates a maximum tensile residual stress value near the welded connection.     

Efficient Transit Schedule Design of timing points: A comparison of Ant Colony and Genetic Algorithms

This work defines Transit Schedule Design (TSD) as an optimization problem to construct the transit schedule with the decision variables of the location of timing points and the amount of slack time associated with each timing point. Two heuristic procedures, Ant Colony and Genetic Algorithms, are developed for constructing optimal schedules for a fixed bus route. The paper presents a comparison of the fundamental features of the two algorithms. They are then calibrated based on data generated from micro-simulation of a bus route in Melbourne, Australia, to give rise to (near) optimal schedule designs. The algorithms are compared in terms of their accuracy and efficiency in providing the minimum cost solution. Although both procedures prove the ability to find the optimal solution, the Ant Colony procedure demonstrates a higher efficiency by evaluating less schedule designs to arrive at a ‘good’ solution. Potential benefits of the developed algorithms in bus route planning are also discussed.