Case study on health assessments related to a modal shift in transportation

Historically, the emphasis on environmental problems has been on visible pollution. However, as a result of the reduction in visible pollution in recent years, many people have become anxious about invisible dangers. The method for objectively evaluating these invisible dangers is risk assessment. Therefore, in the present study we propose and discuss a method for evaluating the influence of a modal shift in transportation on cancer risk using the technique of risk assessment. First, two representative transportation routes were selected for analysis. Subsequently, the level of airborne carcinogens from the exhaust of ships and trucks was determined. Next, the concentration of each carcinogen in locations across Japan was calculated. Finally, the number of people in Japan who will suffer from cancer related to these emissions was derived and the effects of the modal shift on health are discussed.