Analysis of velocity fluctuations and their intermittency properties in the surf zone using empirical mode decomposition

We consider here surf zone turbulence measurements, recorded in the Eastern English Channel using a sonic anemometer. In order to characterize the intermittent properties of their fluctuations at many time scales, we analyze the experimental time series using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method. The series is decomposed into a sum of modes, each one narrow-banded, and we show that some modes are associated with the energy containing wave breaking scales, and other modes are associated with small-scale intermittent fluctuations. We use the EMD approach in association with a newly developed method based on Hilbert spectral analysis, representing the probability density function in an amplitude–frequency space. We then characterize the fluctuations in a stochastic framework using a cumulant generating function for all scales, and compare the results obtained from direct and classical structure function analysis, to EMD–Hilbert spectral analysis results, showing that the former method saturates at large scales, whereas the latter method is more precise in its scale approach. These results show the strength of the new EMD–Hilbert spectral analysis method for data presenting a strong forcing such as found in shallow water, wave dominated situations.     

不断创新中的医疗技术

在2003年，全球医疗技术市场容量超过了2200亿美元（合人民币17500亿元）。欧洲的医疗技术市场仅次于美国的950亿美元（合人民币7650亿元）而以估计为650亿美元1合人民币5250亿元）的容量居于全球第二。德国仍然是全球第三大，并且是目前欧洲最大的医疗仪器市场。     

Local organization of transportation planning activities in the United States

This study provided an examination of the alternative means used by Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to carry out transportation planning activities in different areas of the U.S.A. This has been done by first developing a general profile of the nature and functions of the MPOs in the 100 largest regions in the U.S. and by an in‐depth analysis of seven regions. The purpose of these activities was to examine similarities and differences between MPOs and to identify factors that appear to lead to the effectiveness or non‐effectiveness of MPOs in different areas. From the analysis, it is evident that there are wide differences between MPOs in their organization, function, and degree of effectiveness in carrying out transportation planning. These differences do not appear to be related to any structural characteristics of MPOs, but rather are the result of past history and the attitudes of people involved.     

Intermittent turbulence and copepod dynamics: Increase in encounter rates through preferential concentration

Turbulence has a strong influence on plankton contact rate, which is a crucial parameter for plankton ecology. In the field of particle-turbulence interactions, it is now well known that fully developed turbulence does not always homogenise particle distributions, but instead creates, in some well-defined conditions, preferential concentrations of heavy particles. Many studies have considered the influence of this type of preferential concentration on particle contact rate. We consider here the possible application of these results to copepods, assuming that some results obtained for heavy particles are still valid for light particles. Using parameter values representative of copepod species in coastal waters and open ocean, we numerically estimate the possible enhancement of copepod contact rates due to the preferential concentration by turbulence. The assessment is done by using data from a laboratory experiment: we find from the trajectory analysis of small neutrally buoyant particles, that the preferential concentration effect increases the contact rate up to 140%. We argue that this effect may be more pronounced for higher Reynolds numbers, and may have important ecological applications.     

Strategies for customer service level protection under multi-echelon supply chain disruption risk

We model a multi-echelon system where disruptions can occur at any stage and evaluate multiple strategies for protecting customer service if a disruption should occur. The strategies considered take advantage of the network itself and include satisfying demand from an alternate location in the network, procuring material or transportation from an alternate source or route, and holding strategic inventory reserves throughout the network. Unmet demand is modeled using a mix of backordering and lost sales. We conduct numerical analysis and provide recommendations on selecting strategic mitigation methods to diminish the impact of disruptions on customer service. We demonstrate that the greatest service level improvements can be made by providing both proactive inventory placement to cover short disruptions or the start of long disruptions, and reactive back-up methods to help the supply chain recover after long or permanent disruptions.     

The changing accuracy of traffic forecasts

Researchers have improved travel demand forecasting methods in recent decades but invested relatively little to understand their accuracy. A major barrier has been the lack of necessary data. We compiled the largest known database of traffic forecast accuracy, composed of forecast traffic, post-opening counts and project attributes for 1291 road projects in the United States and Europe. We compared measured versus forecast traffic and identified the factors associated with accuracy. We found measured traffic is on average 6% lower than forecast volumes, with a mean absolute deviation of 17% from the forecast. Higher volume roads, higher functional classes, shorter time spans, and the use of travel models all improved accuracy. Unemployment rates also affected accuracy—traffic would be 1% greater than forecast on average, rather than 6% lower, if we adjust for higher unemployment during the post-recession years (2008 to 2014). Forecast accuracy was not consistent over time: more recent forecasts were more accurate, and the mean deviation changed direction. Traffic on projects that opened from the 1980s through early 2000s was higher on average than forecast, while traffic on more recent projects was lower on average than forecast. This research provides insight into the degree of confidence that planners and policy makers can expect from traffic forecasts and suggests that we should view forecasts as a range of possible outcomes rather than a single expected outcome.

     

Learning to use transit services: adapting to unfamiliar transit travel

Transportation - Travel behavior change has become an area of interest in many cities around the world, particularly to encourage people to change from car use to transit use. Previous research...     

A household-level activity pattern generation model with an application for Southern California

This paper develops and estimates a multiple discrete continuous extreme value model of household activity generation that jointly predicts the activity participation decisions of all individuals in a household by activity purpose and the precise combination of individuals participating. The model is estimated on a sample obtained from the post census regional household travel survey conducted by the South California Association of Governments in the year 2000. A host of household, individual, and residential neighborhood accessibility measures are used as explanatory variables. The results reveal that, in addition to household and individual demographics, the built environment of the home zone also impacts the activity participation levels and durations of households. A validation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed model to predict participation levels and durations. In addition to providing richness in behavioral detail, the model can be easily embedded in an activity-based microsimulation framework and is computationally efficient as it obviates the need for several hierarchical sub-models typically used in extant activity-based systems to generate activity patterns.     

Symbolic dynamics and entropies of copepod behaviour under non-turbulent and turbulent conditions

We consider here behavioural activity of copepods as a succession of symbols associated with swimming states: slow swimming, fast swimming, break and grooming. We characterise these symbolic sequences using tools from symbolic dynamics: probability density function of the residence times in each state; transition probability at each time step; Shannon entropy and dynamic entropy. This approach is applied to the swimming behaviour of Centropages hamatus which we have analyzed as an example of application, in order to stress the differences associated with turbulent and non-turbulent conditions. We characterise in this theoretical framework the behavioural changes exhibited by the copepod under turbulent conditions.