Workshop report - Beyond competitive tendering

Most countries contemplating the introduction of competition-based organizational forms did not perceive the British deregulated bus regime to be the way forward. A deeper analysis of facts and an international coverage of the local successes of that regime remained marginal and, as a result, the reputation of deregulated regimes remained bad or - at best - a contentious issue. The rush for competitive tendering was further stimulated by the European Commission’s endeavour to enact a Regulation that put forward competitive tendering of exclusive contracts as the preferred way to organise local public transport markets. Yet, as discussed in this workshop, deregulation in various guises may well play a growing role in local and regional transport. This is already visible in long-distance coach transport and in (international) European railway markets as from 2010. The workshop paper discusses whether such competition-based institutional alternatives to competitive tendering can provide efficiency and service improvements, how such competition-based alternatives should be ‘regulated’ and, alternatively, how a non-competitive direct award could perhaps still guarantee good performance.     

Evidence of convective instability in congested traffic flow: A systematic empirical and theoretical investigation

An extended open system such as traffic flow is said to be convectively unstable if perturbations of the stationary state grow but propagate in only one direction, so they eventually leave the system. By means of data analysis, simulations, and analytical calculations, we give evidence that this concept is relevant for instabilities of congested traffic flow. We analyze detector data from several hundred traffic jams and propose estimates for the linear growth rate, the wavelength, the propagation velocity, and the severity of the associated bottleneck that can be evaluated semi-automatically. Scatter plots of these quantities reveal systematic dependencies. On the theoretical side, we derive, for a wide class of microscopic and macroscopic traffic models, analytical criteria for convective and absolute linear instabilities. Based on the relative positions of the stability limits in the fundamental diagram, we divide these models into five stability classes which uniquely determine the set of possible elementary spatiotemporal patterns in open systems with a bottleneck. Only two classes, both dominated by convective instabilities, are compatible with observations. By means of approximate solutions of convectively unstable systems with sustained localized noise, we show that the observed spatiotemporal phenomena can also be described analytically. The parameters of the analytical expressions can be inferred from observations, and also (analytically) derived from the model equations.     

International comparison of market risks across shipping-related industries

This paper compares the behaviour of shipping and shipping-related company stock returns to reveal whether systematic risk differs from the average in the market and across sub-sectors of the maritime industry. Following an extensive collection of information through a postal questionnaire survey, 108 publicly listed shipping and shipping-related companies, across stock exchanges of the world, are classified by sector according to their core business activity. The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is employed for the period 1996-1999 to model stock returns and measure sector βs (systematic risk). Stock returns over the period are mostly negative. The systematic risks of the Drilling and Offshore sectors are significantly higher than those of all other sectors, but are not different from each other. There is no significant difference between the systematic risks of the Bulk, Tanker, Container and Ferry sectors. The systematic risk of the Cruise sector lies somewhere between these two groups. There is no difference in the systematic risk of companies that diversified within shipping or shipping-related industries when compared to companies that diversified in other areas. Over all companies in the sample, βis lower than the market average, and so are the βs of the Ferry, Tanker, Bulk, Container and Yard sectors. Only the βof the Drilling sector is statistically higher than one, while the Cruise, Diversified and Offshore sectors are statistically one.     

Commercial public bus transport services in Germany: How a market in motion struggles with its regulatory framework

After decades of stagnation, the competitive market for commercial public bus transport services in Germany is beginning to move. Nevertheless, compared to the total market volume, the number of cases where competition is observable remains small. An empirical analysis of competition in the commercial services market as compared to competition in the non-commercial services market confirms that entry barriers do exist. These barriers clearly impede competitive developments in this embryonic market, which relies on the market initiatives of operators to develop. The paper identifies a key entry barrier in the institutional framework: for potential market entrants, the overall uncertainty regarding competitive procedures for commercial services is significantly higher than usual in tendering procedures. This high uncertainty poses the main disadvantage for newcomers as compared to incumbents.     

Stated preference modelling of intra-household decisions: Can you more easily approximate the preference space?

While the study of choices focuses primarily on the individual decision maker, there is growing interest in the examination of the choices made by groups. Much of the research into the choices of multiple decision makers has revealed that they differ significantly to those of individuals. In this study of household vehicle choice we similarly compare individual choices to group choices and support this finding. Consequently any research into choices that involve groups should acquire data from those groups. In this paper we show how this may be done via an interactive agency choice experiment which makes the individual preferences endogenous to the choice of the group. This method and many like it, however, involve significant time, incentive and administrative costs that often make such studies prohibitive. In this paper we also compare another class of model, minimum information group inference, which is designed to provide an overview of the likely group choice and while not having the specificity of detail as other methods, has the advantage of being much easier and cheaper to implement and is perhaps the only methodology that can be employed when it is not feasible for respondents to interact. We find that this method is a good approximation of group choice, mapping the preference space over which group choice is likely to be located.

     

Behavioural responses to vehicle emissions charging

Road pricing as an economic construct is not a new phenomenon in transportation research. Whilst fuel taxation and tolling of roads are common ways of raising revenue in many countries, these initiatives are primarily aimed at road infrastructure financing. Worldwide there has been growing interest in pricing structures designed to also manage the growing levels of traffic congestion and, in recent times, an increasing focus on generating reductions in carbon emissions from vehicle ownership and use. This paper presents a stated choice experiment undertaken in response to the increasing interest in the environmental externalities of travel behaviour. The aim of this choice experiment is to identify the potential to switch to more fuel efficient cars that emit lower emissions, under differing pricing and technology scenarios. Results indicate that annual and variable emissions surcharges targeted very specifically to vehicle emission rates have a noticeable role in modifying vehicle purchasing decisions.     

I can’t believe your attitude: a joint estimation of best worst attitudes and electric vehicle choice

The number of conventionally fuelled motor vehicles in use is increasing worldwide despite warnings about finite fossil fuel and the detrimental impacts of burning such fuels. While electric vehicles, the subject of much research, generate far less emissions and offer the potential for power from renewable sources, they are yet to significantly penetrate the market. Tangible barriers such as price and vehicle range still exist, but consumer attitudes also drive behaviour. This paper examines attributes in a framework relatively new to transportation and energy policy; best–worst scaling. This method is widely considered an improvement over traditional methods of eliciting attitudes and beliefs, where respondents select attitudes they find best or worst from a set of attitudinal statements. To avoid potential endogeneity bias, we jointly model attitudes and choice for the first time with best–worst data. It is found that energy crisis, air quality and climate change concerns influence behaviour with respect to vehicle range and that travel behaviour change and forms of government incentives are needed influences on behaviour with respect to vehicle emissions. It is argued that correctly modelling attitudes reduces the error term of the vehicle choice model and provides policy makers with an improved lens for assessing behaviour. Additionally, the methods described within can easily be adapted to other policy scenarios.     

Three-phase traffic theory and two-phase models with a fundamental diagram in the light of empirical stylized facts

Despite the availability of large empirical data sets and the long history of traffic modeling, the theory of traffic congestion on freeways is still highly controversial. In this contribution, we compare Kerner’s three-phase traffic theory with the phase diagram approach for traffic models with a fundamental diagram. We discuss the inconsistent use of the term “traffic phase” and show that patterns demanded by three-phase traffic theory can be reproduced with simple two-phase models, if the model parameters are suitably specified and factors characteristic for real traffic flows are considered, such as effects of noise or heterogeneity or the actual freeway design (e.g. combinations of off- and on-ramps). Conversely, we demonstrate that models created to reproduce three-phase traffic theory create similar spatiotemporal traffic states and associated phase diagrams, no matter whether the parameters imply a fundamental diagram in equilibrium or non-unique flow-density relationships. In conclusion, there are different ways of reproducing the empirical stylized facts of spatiotemporal congestion patterns summarized in this contribution, and it appears possible to overcome the controversy by a more precise definition of the scientific terms and a more careful comparison of models and data, considering effects of the measurement process and the right level of detail in the traffic model used.     

Experiences with Competitive Tendering of Bus Services in Germany

Abstract

After a long transition period with only a few isolated procedures for competitive tendering, the market for German public transport bus services has seen numerous such tenders in recent years. The results are complex. From the public transport authorities’ point of view, the main effects are a decrease in subsidy payments, with relatively low expenses relating to the tendering process (allocation, contract management). The overall level of competition is high, with five to seven bidders on average, although this has been declining in recent years. Entry barriers have been identified at significant levels for several parameters, especially with respect to the volume tendered and the revenue risk to be borne by the operator out of net‐cost contracts. Demonstrably small‐ and medium‐sized transport operators have been able to increase their market share in the starting phase of introducing tendering, with diminishing success rates in recent years. Due to the increased quality requirements in competitive tendering, the quality of public transport available has improved considerably, and environmental standards have been better implemented and sustained. As far as employees are concerned, a trend towards wages below the wage rate of private operators cannot be observed. However, their level is well below the level of public incumbent operators.