Modelling inter-urban transport flows in Italy: A comparison between neural network analysis and logit analysis

In the present paper a modal split problem is analysed by means of two competing statistical models, the traditional logit model and the new technique for information processing, viz. the feedforward neural network model. This study aims to explore the modal split between rail and road transport modes in Italy in relation to the introduction of a new technological innovation, the new High-Speed Train. The paper is sub-divided into two major parts. The first part offers some general considerations on the use of neural networks in the light of the increasing number of empirical applications in the specific area of transport economics. The second part describes the Italian case study by using the two above mentioned statistical models. The results highlights the fact that the two adopted models, although methodologically different, are both able to provide a reasonable spatial forecasting of the phenomenon studied. In particular, the neural network model turns out to have a slightly better performance, even though there are still critical problems inherent in its application.     

European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios

Environmental issues have received a prominent place in transport policies of most European countries. The coordination of such policies however, is fraught with many difficulties. The increasing freight flows after the European integration are a source of concern, but have not yet led to straightforward and effective environmental strategies.The paper focuses on the Trans Alpine freight transport systems in the light of the future integration of single national transport systems into the European transport network. The environmental, social and institutional peculiarities of this ‘region’ have favoured—in the past—the development of strong nationally-oriented policies, partly in contrast with the goals promoted by the European Union. The present analysis aims to highlight opportunities, and limits inherent, in the implementation of various infrastructure projects oriented towards a drastic change of the Alpine transport systems structure. The Alpine countries, viz. Austria and Switzerland, play a central role in the promotion of environmental benign modes of transport of goods, with a clear focus on rail. The route choice and modal split of freight flows in Europe are taking place simultaneously. In this paper the results of European freight flow models (based on logit analysis and neural networks) will be presented. An important exercise is then to assess the consequences of various types of eco-taxes on road transport in Europe. In this context, several policy scenarios will be dealt with.     

Understanding bikeability: a methodology to assess urban networks

Transportation - A fully separated bicycle network from vehicular traffic is not realistic even for the most bicycle-friendly cities. Thus, all around the world urban cycling entails switching...     

Resilience and accessibility of Swedish and Dutch municipalities

Recent years have shown a rising popularity of the concept of resilience—both theoretically and empirically—in complex systems analysis. There is also a rising literature on resilience in the transport and spatial-economic field. The pluriform interpretation of resilience (e.g., engineering vs. ecological resilience) is related to methodological differences (e.g., stability in dynamics vs. evolutionary adaptivity). But in all cases the fundamental question is whether a complex system that is subjected to an external shock is able to recover, and if so, to which extent. The present paper [Based on presentation from cluster 6 (Accessibility) of the Nectar 2015 conference in Ann Arbour, USA.] aims to add a new dimension to resilience analysis in spatial systems, by addressing in particular the relationship between spatial accessibility at a municipality level and the resilience outcomes of the spatial system concerned. It does so by investigating to which extent accessibility of Swedish and Dutch municipalities has mitigated the local shock absorption from the recent economic recession. In our study the shock absorption capacity of municipal accessibility is estimated by analysing the relevant resilience indicators for the period concerned. In this context, conventional resilience indicators based on either multivariate complex data (in particular, the Foster Resilience Capacity Index) or employment data (in particular, the Martin Resilience-Employment Index) are confronted with spatial connectivity data based on local accessibility measures, so that geographical mobility may be regarded as one of the shock-mitigating factors. The empirical analysis is carried out for two countries which have both proven to be rather shock-resistant during the recent economic crisis, viz. Sweden and The Netherlands. Clearly, the geographical structure of these countries forms a sharp mutual contrast, viz. a spatially dispersed economy with a few distinct urban concentrations versus a spatially dense economy with one major metropolitan centre (the Randstad), respectively. Our experiments are carried out for the 290 municipalities in Sweden and 40 COROPs in The Netherlands. Our research findings show relevant and new insights into differences in the local recovery potential in Sweden and The Netherlands.