Transport policy scenario-building

Long-term planning decisions must be as robust as possible to withstand such changes in the policy-making environment. This calls for a new approach for identifying how policies might fare under different types of conditions and for identifying robust no-regrets strategies. This paper outlines a systematic and logical framework for the development of policy scenarios and shows how scenarios can be used in the analysis of future policy options. The article discusses how scenario analysis can be used to identify, anticipate and assess policy options for the future in an environment of uncertainty, mainly using examples of transport policy in Europe.     

Perspectives on the commercial development of landing gear health monitoring systems

The development of health monitoring technologies for aerospace systems creates a number of challenges for the community of engineers and technical specialists as they seek to integrate the technology into well defined working practices. These challenges do not just extend to the technical, but require a number of commercial questions to be addressed. It is of vital importance, that there is a clearly identified need for aerospace health monitoring, both from a technological and commercial viewpoint. If these needs cannot be identified, then any attempt for marketing health monitoring as a necessary future technological requirement is doomed for failure. Health monitoring technology will need to either deliver significant cost saving benefits to the aircraft operator or demonstrated increases in aircraft safety. The objective of the paper is to provide an assessment of the commercial benefits and development of aircraft landing gear health monitoring. The commercial need and challenges for health monitoring systems are explored in this paper within the context of a changing aerospace maintenance industry and the role in which new systems technology will play. The key findings of the research study are that within the aerospace industry there is a desired paradigm shift within aircraft maintenance towards offering maintenance systems with predictive capabilities. This maintenance revolution will not just incorporate new technologies, but will result in aircraft maintenance packages tailored towards individual customer requirements. The study illustrates the state-of-the-art in health monitoring currently restricts aerospace integration and a number of key technical and commercial issues need to be addressed. Predictive health monitoring offers a variety of commercial benefits for maintenance providers, aircraft operators and manufacturers. However, in order for these benefits to be realised increased transparency in maintenance related information is required between these key players.     

Long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks on land-use change: an international review of empirical studies

Improvements in geographical information systems, the wider availability of high-resolution digital data and more sophisticated econometric techniques have all contributed to increasing academic interest and activity in long-term impacts of transport infrastructure networks (TINs) on land use (LU). This paper provides a systematic review of recent empirical evidence from the USA, Europe and East Asia, classified regarding the type of transport infrastructure (road or rail), LU indicator (land cover, population or employment density, development type) and outcome (significance, relationship’s direction) as well as influential exogenous factors. Proximity to the rail network is generally associated with population growth (particularly soon after the development of railway infrastructure), conversion to residential uses and the development of higher residential densities. Meanwhile, proximity to the road network is frequently associated with increases in employment densities as well as the conversion of land to a variety of urban uses including commercial and industrial development. Compared with road infrastructure, the impact of rail infrastructure is often less significant for land cover or population and employment density change. The extent of TINs’ impact on LU over time can be explained by the saturation in TIN-related accessibility and LU development.