Reliability-based calibration of fatigue design guidelines for ship structures

A simple reliability-based framework is applied to calibrate a new set of fatigue design guidelines. This new guideline considers two different approaches for the assessment of both loads, stresses and local stress raising effects, and partial safety factors must be given for any combination of these approaches. For the calibration, the lognormal reliability format is adopted because the hereby-derived partial safety factors can be combined arbitrarily. This means that with a few basic partial safety factors, the combination of partial safety factors to be applied together with any combination of calculation approaches can be determined easily. In the present paper both the adopted reliability format, the applied modeling of uncertainties and the selected target safety index are explained. Based on this, a new guideline is calibrated and the derived partial safety factors are presented. Finally, the new guideline is applied through a numerical example in order to show the applicability of the calibrated partial safety factors, and satisfactory results are found.     

Market structures in coastal shipping: what to expect in Canada following the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement with the European Union?

After several years of negotiation between Canada and the European Union, the Comprehensive and Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) was ratified in early 2017. The regime set out by the Canadian Coasting Trade Act that reserves shipments of cargo between Canadian ports to Canadian vessels remains mostly untouched under CETA. Minor, yet potentially significant, changes to the regime are introduced by the trade agreement. Provisions are made to liberalize the repositioning of empty containers within Canada. The liberalization of public markets now allows European firms to compete in the Canadian dredging market. Finally, EU vessels can undertake some transshipment activity in Canada but this is limited to international cargo on the specific Montreal-Halifax route. The paper attempts to highlight some possible CETA’s consequences for domestic Canadian shipping markets. It uses industrial economics analytical tools drawn from a Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) paradigm. From a literature review, it reconstructs different cases of deregulation that occurred internationally. The observed transformations are then characterized in terms of the SCP model. The paper identifies some common impacts which occurred in different transportation industries after a deregulation process. Using these findings, it concludes by discussing potential impacts for domestic shipping markets in Canada.     

Supply and demand for the Eastern Canadian Arctic Sealift

The annual sealift of cargo to the Canadian Arctic has long been an essential part of the livelihood of Inuit communities. Over the past two decades, many structural changes were brought to this service and the demand has grown substantially. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of these changes by analysing demand and supply for Eastern Canadian Arctic sealift services. This analysis is based on Canadian Coast Guard vessel movement data and Statistics Canada port traffic data. It reveals that between 1987 and 2010, continuous and extreme variations in demand made it quite difficult for ship operators to adjust carrying capacity and optimise productivity. Yet, the recent industrial and population growth in the region has enabled them to reach significant gains in fleet utilisation levels.     

Actors and Their Representations in Shipping Policy: Developing the European Maritime Safety Agency

This paper discusses the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). Through a chronological reconstruction, the study looks at the events that lead to the official birth of the Agency in 2003 and how it developed to its current state. The conceptual framework draws from cognitive policy analysis, a French political science perspective related to new institutionalisms. This approach emphasizes the role of the actors' own representations of their sector and the ways they fit within the socioeconomic system as a whole. This highlights the evolution of the stakeholders' positions and influence throughout the development process. Findings suggest that although considerable discrepancies between European representatives and those of the shipping industry were present in the context leading to EMSA's creation, the Agency has now established a working consensus confirming a greater implication of European authorities in the regulation of international shipping. The work also suggests that a greater attention to plays of power among stakeholders and how they translate in their representations could be pertinent to strengthen research in shipping policy.     

Shared ride services in North America: definitions,impacts, and the future of pooling

ABSTRACT

Shared ride services allow riders to share a ride to a common destination. They include ridesharing (carpooling and vanpooling); ridesplitting (a pooled version of ridesourcing/transportation network companies); taxi sharing; and microtransit. In recent years, growth of Internet-enabled wireless technologies, global satellite systems, and cloud computing - coupled with data sharing – are causing people to increase their use of mobile applications to share a ride. Some shared ride services, such as carpooling and vanpooling, can provide transportation, infrastructure, environmental, and social benefits. This paper reviews common shared ride service models, definitions, and summarises existing North American impact studies. Additionally, we explore the convergence of shared mobility; electrification; and automation, including the potential impacts of shared automated vehicle (SAV) systems. While SAV impacts remain uncertain, many practitioners and academic research predict higher efficiency, affordability, and lower greenhouse gas emissions. The impacts of SAVs will likely depend on the number of personally owned automated vehicles; types of sharing (concurrent or sequential); and the future modal split among public transit, shared fleets, and pooled rides. We conclude the paper with recommendations for local governments and public agencies to help in managing the transition to highly automated vehicles and encouraging higher occupancy modes.     

Decadal sea level trends in the Bay of Biscay from tide gauges, GPS and TOPEX

Sea level time series derived from TOPEX altimeter and from tide gauge measurements in the Bay of Biscay (Eastern North Atlantic Ocean) are used to investigate the regional sea level rise. Altimetry sea level anomalies are computed from TOPEX measurements and resampled into fixed along track bins in order to obtain consistent records and to approach as close as possible to the coast. Tidal corrections are critical in the estimation of sea level trends; therefore an additional analysis has been carried out in order to identify and correct for residual tidal signals. The obtained mean sea level rise in the region is + 3.09 ± 0.21 mm/year over the period 1993–2002. Tide gauges have been corrected for vertical land motions by means of collocated GPS measurements. GPS-corrected tide gauges and nearby altimetry trends are found to be statistically consistent. The relationship with the atmospheric forcing is also investigated revealing that 15% of this sea level rise is attributed to the atmospheric pressure effects.     

九世纪初连结中国与波斯湾的外销瓷:勿里洞沉船的例证

公元8-9世纪亚洲商业贸易非常活跃.中国与西亚之间不仅通过陆上丝绸之路进行贸易往来,而且开辟了海路新航线.通过海上和陆上丝绸之路,中国与西亚各国不断进行双向交流.沉没于印尼海域的勿里洞阿拉伯沉船,首次以大量生动的艺术品证据,印证这一时期中国与波斯湾之间活跃的商业往来和文化交流.勿里洞阿拉伯沉船上出土的文物有60 000多件,其中98%是陶瓷.这些陶瓷烧造于中国各窑口,但器物上的装饰具有明显的伊斯兰元素,是以伊斯兰工艺品为模板,为迎合伊斯兰市场制作的.它们得自进口的伊斯兰艺术品灵感,被复制于陶瓷上,又出口回波斯湾,完成了艺术制作上一个有趣的循环.     

Evaluating long‐distance travel patterns in Israel by tracking cellular phone positions

Long‐distance trips are generally under‐reported in typical household surveys, because of relative low frequency of these trips. This paper proposes to utilize location data from cellular phone systems in order to study long‐distance travel patterns. The proposed approach allows passive data collection on many travelers over a long period of time at low costs. The paper presents the results of a study that applies cellular phone technology to assess trips at the national level. The method was specifically designed to capture long distance trips, as part of the development of a national demand model conducted for the Economics and Planning Department of the Israel Ministry of Transport. The method allows the construction of origin–destination tables directly from the cellular phone positions. The paper presents selected results to illustrate the potential of the method for transportation planning and analysis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Automated vehicles: exploring possible consequences of government (non)intervention for congestion and accessibility

ABSTRACT

Academic research on automated vehicles (AVs) has to date been dominated by the fields of engineering and computer science. Questions of how this potentially transformative technology should be governed remain under-researched and tend to concentrate on governing the technology’s early development. We respond in this paper by exploring the possible longer-term effect of government (lack of) intervention.

The paper tests the hypothesis that a “laissez-faire” governance approach is likely to produce less desirable outcomes in a scenario of mass uptake of AVs than would a well-planned set of government interventions. This is done using two prominent themes in transport policy – traffic flow and accessibility – in a scenario of high market penetration of Level-5 automated vehicles in capitalist market economies. The evidence used is drawn from a literature review and from the findings of a set of workshops with stakeholders.

We suggest that a laissez-faire approach will lead to an increase in traffic volume as a result of a growing population of “drivers” and a probable increase in kilometres driven per passenger. At the same time, the hoped-for increases in network efficiency commonly claimed are not guaranteed to come about without appropriate government intervention. The likely consequence is an increase in congestion. And, with respect to accessibility, it is likely that the benefits of AVs will be enjoyed by wealthier individuals and that the wider impacts of AV use (including sprawl) may lead to a deterioration in accessibility for those who depend on walking, cycling or collective transport.

We consider the range of possible government intervention in five categories: Planning/land-use; Regulation/policy; Infrastructure/technology; Service provision; and Economic instruments. For each category, we set out a series of interventions that might be used by governments (at city, region or state level) to manage congestion or protect accessibility in the AV scenario described. Many of these (e.g. road pricing) are already part of the policy mix but some (e.g. ban empty running of AVs) would be new. We find that all interventions applicable to the management of traffic flow would also be expected to contribute to the management of accessibility; we define a small number of additional interventions aimed at protecting the accessibility of priority groups.

Our general finding is that the adoption of a package of these interventions could be expected to lead to better performance against generic traffic-flow and accessibility objectives than would a laissez-faire approach, though questions of extent of application remain.

In our conclusions, we contrast laissez-faire with both anticipatory governance and “precautionary” governance and acknowledge the political difficulty associated with acting in the context of uncertainty. We point out that AVs do not represent the first emerging technology to offer both opportunities and risks and challenge governments at all levels to acknowledge the extent of their potential influence and, in particular, to examine methodically the options available to them and the potential consequences of pursuing them.     

A new,non-canonical Poisson regression model for the prediction of crashes on low-volume rural roads

The purpose of the study was to compare the prediction power of a simplified non-canonical Poisson crash-prediction model to other model types. The model, fitted to serious and fatal crash data from 86 two-lane low-volume rural highway segments, showed a good fit, which was not significantly different from that of a negative binomial model. The application of the present model uses the linear form of the non-canonical Poisson model. Hence the simplification of the model versus other models results from the finding that the expected number of crashes per 1 km is directly proportional to the daily volume, unlike logarithmic functions in other models. In the non-canonical model, it is necessary to estimate only one parameter, whereas estimations of more parameters are needed in the negative binomial model.