Focusing on the influence of childcare on women’s time use behaviour, this paper develops an integrated model of activity
participation and time allocation, where the former is represented based on a scobit model and the latter based on a multi-linear
utility function under the utility-maximizing principle. The integration of the scobit model with the time allocation model
is done by applying Lee’s transformation. Especially, the scobit model is adopted to relax the assumption, made in the Logit
or Probit model, that individuals having indifferent preferences over participation and non-participation are most sensitive
to changes in explanatory variables. Using a large-scale time use data (66,839 persons) collected in Japan, the effectiveness
of the proposed integrated model is empirically confirmed. It is revealed that the probabilities of participating in compulsory-contracted
activities and discretionary activities with the highest sensitivity to changes in explanatory variables are 65 and 81%, respectively.
Variances of social childcare variables explain about half of the total variance of the time use for discretionary activities;
however, for compulsory-contracted activities, social childcare variables explain only less than 1% of the total variance
of activity participation and less than 10% of total variable of time allocation. 相似文献
This paper presents an integrated model system for mobility maximization based on a quantified specification of environmental capacity, and evaluates policy interaction and effectiveness by simulating a number of policy scenarios. The system is designed to specify the maximum level of car ownership and number of trips by private and public modes subject to an environmental capacity constraint defined as the frontier emission under maximum system efficiency. Four types of hypothetical policies (population change, urban sprawl, land-use pattern and network improvement) are designed and the effects of 13 policy scenarios are simulated using data of Dalian City, China. Results reveal that the integrated model system reacts sensitively to policy interventions. The urban sprawl reflected in a changing residential distribution from central to suburban areas is most instrumental from the perspective of pollution alleviation. If the goal is to simultaneously reduce emissions while accommodating mobility, two combinational policy scenarios outperform all others. 相似文献
With the objective of deriving useful insights into measures against traffic congestion at service areas (SAs) and parking areas (PAs) on expressways and ensuring efficient use of SAs/PAs, this study investigated the decisions on where a truck is parked (i.e., choice of an SA or a PA), how long it is parked (i.e., parking time), and their influential factors. To this end, this study used the trajectory data of 1600 trucks recorded in 6-min intervals by in-vehicle digital tachographs on the Sanyo and Chugoku Expressways in Japan from October 2013 to March 2014. First, the aspect of repeated choice of each truck (i.e., habitual behavior) toward a specific SA/PA was clarified. Next, a multilevel discrete–continuous model (Type II Tobit model) was developed to reveal the factors affecting the above decisions. The modeling results confirmed the existence of habitual behavior and showed that trucks were more likely to be parked a longer time at an SA/PA when it is closer to the destination. It appears that truck drivers may adjust their time at the SA/PA close to the destination to comply with the arrival time, which is often predetermined by the owner of the transported goods. Furthermore, the availability of restaurants and shops, and the number of parking spaces available for trucks and trailers are important determinants of parking time, whereas the existence of a convenience store is important to the choice of the SA/PA. Parking experience has an extremely strong positive effect on the parking choice and use. Moreover, increasing the number of parking lots may induce its longer use.
Transport planners often need to forecast the influence of the transport policies on travel demand, e.g., construction of a new transport alternative, changing public transit fares, or imposing road pricing schemes. Stated preference (SP) surveys are frequently adopted by transport planners for the analysis of the impact of transport policies on travel demand. However, evidence suggests that preferences derived from SP surveys are contingent on context, which indicates that trip makers may show asymmetric preferences for different levels of services. The objective of this article is to propose an alternative conceptual framework for travel demand analysis. It is expected that travel behavior may be heterogeneous across trip makers; response (or parameter of) to the level of service is defined as a function of the attributes of the trip makers. It is also aimed to propose some urban transportation policies based on a new type of discrete choice model. In an empirical demonstration, the panel data obtained from commuters in Lanzhou, China, are used, and support is obtained for several predictions on why behavioral intentions are, or are not, implemented. 相似文献