A random heaping model of annual vehicle kilometres travelled considering heterogeneous approximation in reporting

Transportation - Annual vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) is a long used index of car use. Usually, the annual VKT, as reported by respondents, is used for the analysis. But the reported values...     

Women’s mode and trip structure choices in daily activity-travel: a developing country perspective

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we analyze the travel patterns of Iranian women, where typical patriarchal views and specific social and cultural norms may differ from the patterns of those in western societies. In addition to inherent psycho-physical gender differences, women in Iran can face special constraints forcing them not to be involved in all activity-travel patterns that people in developed countries usually undertake. We pay special attention to the role of marital and employment status on women’s activity-travel patterns. To this end, we develop a joint mode and daily activity pattern (DAP) discrete choice model, which is a two-level mixed nested Logit. The upper nest of the proposed model embodies women’s DAP choices, and the lower nest belongs to the mode choices. In this paper, we try to show how different factors in a patriarchal Muslim society like Iran affect or restrict women’s type and structure of activity-travel patterns.     

Part 2. Beyond single-outcome models: Decompositions of aggregate and disaggregate road safety risk

The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.     

Distributional effects of road pricing: Assessment of nine scenarios for Paris

The starting point of this paper is to consider that there is no general answer to the question of the equity of urban road pricing. We therefore simulate and compare the distributional effects on commuters of nine toll scenarios for Paris, assuming that utility is nonlinear in income. We show that the distributional pattern across income groups depends crucially on the level of traffic reduction induced by tolling. Stringent tolls are more favourable to low-income motorists. Equity effects also vary with toll design. Compared to a reference scenario which uniformly charges all motorists driving within Paris, an inbound cordon toll is detrimental to low-incomes. Conversely, granting a rebate to low CO₂ emission cars slightly improves their situation while an exemption for Paris residents is neutral. Surprisingly, it matters little for social equity whether toll revenues are allocated to all commuters or solely to public transport users.     

Part 1. National road safety performance: Data,the emergence of two single-outcome modeling streams and public health

This first part of the state-of-the art focuses on the origins of road safety modeling, covering data, early models and the public health context of model formulation and use.     

Part 3. Multivariate road safety models: Future research orientations and current use to forecast performance

The third part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the future of road safety modeling and on conjectures concerning the evolution of national safety indicators. In the absence of econometric developments specific to road safety modeling, the research future must rely on pre-existing statistical procedures of econometrics applied to discrete/count and to aggregate data. In terms of contents, growing interest in the heterogeneity of road accident outcomes by category of victims could lead to treatments of this issue across research streams, say by top-down and bottom-up developments, but this speculation does not rest on extant adequate formulations of the issue of road user class and victim analysis. But understanding the time profile of aggregate national performance indicators is quite another matter.     

Dynamic threshold policy for delaying and breaking commitments in transportation auctions

In this paper we consider a transportation procurement auction consisting of shippers and carriers. Shippers offer time sensitive pickup and delivery jobs and carriers bid on these jobs. We focus on revenue maximizing strategies for the shippers in sequential auctions. For this purpose we propose two strategies, namely delaying and breaking commitments. The idea of delaying commitments is that a shipper will not agree with the best bid whenever it is above a certain reserve price. The idea of breaking commitments is that the shipper allows the carriers to break commitments against certain penalties. We evaluate the benefits of both strategies with simulation. In addition, we provide insight into the distribution of the lowest bid which is estimated by the shippers.     

Operational route choice methodologies for practical applications

This paper focuses on the application of tractable route choice models and presents a set of methods for deriving relevant disaggregate and aggregate route choice indicators, namely link and route flows. Tractability is achieved at the disaggregate level by the recursive logit model and at the aggregate level by the mental representation item (\(\mathrm {MRI}\)) approach. These two approaches are analyzed here, and extensions of the \({\mathrm {MRI}}\) approach are presented. The analysis elaborates on the features of each model and allows to draw insights into the use of a specific model, depending on the needs of the application and the data availability. The performance of the two models is tested on real data. The results demonstrate the validity of the \({\mathrm {MRI}}\) model that is intended for aggregate analysis.

     

On the distribution of dissolved lead in the Loire estuary and the North Biscay continental shelf, France

The dissolved lead was studied in the whole salinity gradient of the system composed of the Loire estuary and the North Biscay continental shelf. About 130 samples were collected in winter 2001 and spring 2002 during Nutrigas and Gasprod campaigns (Programme PNEC-Golfe de Gascogne, RV Thalassa) and metal measurements were conducted on board by Potentiometric Stripping Analysis. In the Loire estuary, levels of dissolved lead ranged from 0.15 to 0.24 nM and from 0.04 to 0.26 nM in winter and spring, respectively. Compared to the concentrations reported in 1987 and 1990 (0.4–1.7 nM; Boutier, B., Chiffoleau, J.F., Auger, D., Truquet, I., 1993. Influence of the Loire river on dissolved lead and cadmium concentrations in coastal waters of Brittany. Estuar. Coast. Shelf S., 36:133–143, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 36, 133–143) our study indicated much lower values. The fall in concentration in the estuary could be attributed to the stopping of activity of Octel, a big manufacturer of tetra alkyl lead. Discharge in dissolved metal to the continental shelf by the Loire river was assessed as 7.5 and 1.9 kg day^− 1 for winter and spring, respectively. On the continental shelf, levels of dissolved lead varied within 0.06 and 0.27 nM in winter (0.15 ± 0.06 nM, sd = 1.96, n = 49), whereas concentrations measured in spring were in the range 0.06–0.17 nM (0.09 ± 0.03 nM, sd = 1.96, n = 60). This difference in metal concentration was related to the amounts of rainfall that have fallen over the continental shelf: estimations of inputs by this way (74 and 32 kg day^− 1 in winter and spring, respectively) appeared to be significantly higher than inputs from the Loire river (7.5 and 1.9 kg day^− 1 in winter and spring, respectively). The distributions of dissolved metal in the surface waters highlighted the role of suspended particular matter (SPM) for a rapid “trapping” of lead near the mouth of the estuary. The vertical distributions showed, in the stratified area, a biological transfer of lead between winter and spring from surface waters to the halocline.     

Analyzing time sensitivity to discomfort in the Paris subway: an interval data model approach

We analyze individual travel discomfort-time tradeoffs in the Paris subway using stated choice experiments. The survey design allows to set up in a willingness-to-pay space to estimate the distributions of elasticities of values of travel time to crowd density and time multipliers. Several formulations of a generalized travel cost function are tested. Accounting for heterogeneity in preferences, the econometric models all take the form of an ordered probit with known bounds. We derive several estimates that could be used for fine-tuning of traffic simulation systems and more general transportation policy analysis.