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From the moment e-shopping emerged, there have been speculations about its impact on personal mobility. A fair amount of research has already been carried out on Internet shopping itself as well as on its consequences for mobility. Most studies focus on the overall impact of online shopping on personal mobility. However, little is known about how personal shopping mobility can be characterised when differentiating its constituent stages, being browsing/orienting, comparing, selecting and purchasing products, and how this is affected by e-shopping. This will be the main topic of this paper. We will investigate this using recently collected data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel [in Dutch: MobiliteitsPanel Nederland (MPN)]. It is the unique combination of reported shopping trips in the three-day travel diary, the large amount of personal and household characteristics combined with the detailed information from the e-shopping questionnaire that enables us to perform this research. Using factor analysis, we explore the underlying factors related to the browsing and selection behaviour prior to the purchase of a product. Using these factors as a starting point, we apply cluster analysis resulting in three homogeneous groups of shoppers with different pre-purchase shopping behaviour. The groups differ clearly with respect to personal and household characteristics, in the frequency with which they buy and sell products online and in their perception of (dis-)advantages of online shopping. Once relevant groups have been distinguished and characterised, differences in shopping-related mobility between them are studied in two different ways. Firstly, we analyse statements from shoppers on how their shopping-related mobility has changed. Secondly, we analyse shopping trips reported in the three-day travel diary. Only one group, which consists of shoppers that rely on the Internet to search for product information, compare prices and get new product ideas, states that their shopping-related travel behaviour has changed since they started shopping online. Approximately 50% of all shoppers experienced no difference in their shopping mobility. The analysis of actual shopping mobility using the travel diary data showed only minor differences in shopping-related travel behaviour between the identified groups. Finally, we fit a multi-variate linear regression model of shopping trip distance to determine if (e)-shopping characteristics influence trip distances. The frequency with which people shop online as well as some stated changes in shopping-related travel behaviour (shopping in a similar manner and shopping longer) turn out to influence non-grocery shopping trip distance. No significant influence could be found of shopping cluster membership on shopping trip distances.

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This paper reports the results of a scenario-based simulation study to explore mobility effects of an aging society in the Netherlands. Four accumulative behavioral scenario variants, embedded in an economic and demographic scenario are used to simulate possible future activity-travel patterns, using the Albatross system as the simulator. The variants account for likely differences in activity-travel behavior between elderly today and elderly in the future. Trends ongoing over the last decade in the Netherlands suggest that future elderly need to work longer, change their activity pattern with most growth occurring in the social/leisure activity category, will try to avoid morning peak hours by rescheduling their activities and may introduce more spatial diversity in terms of their residence location. Results show that these behavioral and spatial changes lead to a significant increase in travel demands as well as temporal, spatial and modal shifts in mobility patterns. We discuss possible policy implications of these predictions and evaluate the specific strength of activity-based models for studies of this kind.
Theo ArentzeEmail:

Theo Arentze   received a Ph.D. in Decision Support Systems for urban planning from the Eindhoven University of Technology. He is now an Associate Professor at the Urban Planning Group at the same university. His main fields of expertise and current research interests are activity-based modeling, discrete choice modeling, knowledge discovery and learning-based systems, and decision support systems with applications in urban and transport planning. Harry Timmermans   (1952) holds a Ph.D. degree in Geography/Urban and Regional Planning. He studied at the Catholic University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands. Since 1976 he is affiliated with the Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning of the Eindhoven University of Technology, The Netherlands. First as an assistant professor of Quantitative and Urban Geography, later as an associate professor of Urban Planning Research. In 1986 he was appointed chaired professor of Urban Planning at the same institute. In 1992 he founded the European Institute of Retailing and Services Studies (EIRASS) in Eindhoven, the Netherlands (a sister-institute of the Canadian Institute of Retailing and Services Studies). His main research interests concern the study of human judgement and choice processes, mathematical modelling of urban systems and spatial interaction and choice patterns and the development of decision support and expert systems for application in urban planning. He has published several books and many articles in journals in the fields of Marketing, Urban Planning, Architecture and Urban Design, Geography, Environmental Psychology, Transportation Research, Urban and Regional Economics, Urban Sociology, Leisure Sciences and Computer Science. Peter Jorritsma   graduated in 1981 as a Traffic Engineer and in 1987 as MSc in Economic Geography at the University of Groningen. After a 2-year period as researcher at the Faculty of Spatial Sciences of the University of Groningen he started in 1989 a career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Planning and Water Management. Within the Ministry, Peter Jorritsma worked within different research departments. The focus of his research work was on (inter)national public transport issues, spatial planning in relation to transport, travel behaviour in common and travel behaviour of different groups in society (elderly, immigrants, women). Since 2006 Peter Jorritsma is working for the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, a scientific research institute within the Ministry of Transport. Marie-José Olde Kalter   graduated in 1997 as MSc in Traffic and Transport Engineering at the University of Twente. She started her career at Goudappel Coffeng BV, a traffic and transport consultant for public and private parties. Within Goudappel Coffeng, Marie-José was the first 3 years concerned with developing transport models to forecast the future use of infrastructure given different scenario’s and policy measures. After this period she specialized in qualitative and quantitative research methods. In 2005 she continued her career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Strategic Modeling and Forecasting. Since 2006 is Marie-José working for the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis, a scientific research institute within the Ministry of Transport. She is mainly involved in qualitative and quantitative research related to travel behaviour. Arnout Schoemakers   graduated in 1998 as MSc in Environmental and Infrastructure Planning at the University of Groningen. He started his career at AGV, a traffic and transport consultant for public and private parties. Within AGV, Arnout was concerned with developing land-use and transportation models to forecast the future use of infrastructure and land-use given different scenario’s and policy measures. In 2002 he continued his career at the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Strategic Modeling and Forecasting. At this Ministry Arnout was project manager of the new developed LUTI model TIGRIS XL and the activity based model ALBATROSS. Since 2008 Arnout is working at Oranjewoud, a stock-noted leading consultancy and engineering firm. He is mainly involved developing and using transport models, and in designing processes how to use these model systems in the Dutch planning system.  相似文献   
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