Twenty First Century Transportation System Solutions - a New Type of Small, Relatively Tall and Narrow Active Tilting Commuter Vehicle

There are many problems that face transportation systems as the twenty-first century approaches, and many solutions will be required. Mass transportation systems are one large area of research that will provide some solutions. This paper presents another possible solution at the other end of the spectrum, small relatively tall and narrow tilting commuter vehicles for individual transportation. A historical overview of the various types of tilting vehicles built or proposed over the last forty years is shown and the results of these studies are discussed. If one considers a relatively tall and narrow vehicle, (under 1.0 meters or 40“ wide), to maintain high speed performance in cornering it becomes necessary to bank the vehicle into a corner to prevent overturning. The design of a modem active tilting suspension and control law for a small narrow, one-half width, commuter vehicles is presented. Analysis of the static and dynamic tipping limits illustrates which vehicles are considered tall and narrow requiring active tilting. The performance of such vehicles as they enter a steady corner is considered and how tilt dynamics may feel to passengers is discussed.     

Incomplete cost – incomplete benefit analysis in transport appraisal

This paper examines the current application of transport appraisal in the UK, in particular exploring the partiality of cost–benefit analysis (CBA) within the wider multi-criteria analysis (MCA) process. It argues that applying a quantitative assessment of the varied impacts of complex transport projects can only be partial within the CBA. Analysis can overlook social, human life, environmental and built environment impacts, and projects can be inconsistent with the planning strategy for an area. The application of CBA is critically reviewed using two case studies: the proposed upgrade of the South Fylde railway line and the Heysham-M6 Link Road, both from North West England. A participatory MCA process is suggested to help improve the process of transport appraisal, as part of an improved public debate on transport investment priorities.     

A dense water outflow from the Ross Sea, Antarctica: Mixing and the contribution of tides

We use hydrographic, current, and microstructure measurements, and tide-forced ocean models, to estimate benthic and interfacial mixing impacting the evolution of a bottom-trapped outflow of dense shelf water from the Drygalski Trough in the northwestern Ross Sea. During summer 2003 an energetic outflow was observed from the outer shelf ( 500 m isobath) to the  1600 m isobath on the continental slope. Outflow thickness was as great as  200 m, and mean speeds were  0.6 m s^− 1 relative to background currents exceeding  1 m s^− 1 that were primarily tidal in origin. No outflow was detected on the slope in winter 2004, although a thin layer of dense shelf water was present on the outer shelf. When the outflow was well-developed, the estimated benthic stress was of order one Pascal and the bulk Froude number over the upper slope exceeded one. Diapycnal scalar diffusivity (K_z) values in the transition region at the top of the outflow, estimated from Thorpe-scale analysis of potential density and measurements of microscale temperature gradient from sensors attached to the CTD rosette, were of order 10^− 3−10^− 2 m² s^− 1. For two cases where the upper outflow boundary was particularly sharply defined, entrainment rate w_e was estimated from K_z and bulk outflow parameters to be  10^− 3 m s^− 1 ( 100 m day^− 1). A tide-forced, three-dimensional primitive equation ocean model with Mellor-Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme for diapycnal mixing yields results consistent with a significant tidal role in mixing associated with benthic stress and shear within the stratified ocean interior.     

A utility-based bicycle speed choice model with time and energy factors

Transportation - This paper presents a utility-based behavioral model of bicycle speed choice. A mathematical framework is developed with travel time, energy expenditure, and control factors....     

Calibrating a transit assignment model using smart card data in a large-scale multi-modal transit network

This paper describes a practical automated procedure to calibrate and validate a transit assignment model. An optimization method based on particle swarm algorithm is adopted to minimize a defined error term. This error term which is based on the percentage of root mean square error and the mean absolute percent error encompasses deviation of model outputs from observations considering both segment level as well as the mode level and can be applied to a large scale network. This study is based on the frequency-based assignment model using the concept of optimal strategy while any transit assignment model can be used in the proposed methodological framework. Lastly, the model is validated using another weekday data. The proposed methodology uses automatic fare collection (AFC) data to estimate the origin–destination matrix. This study combines data from three sources: the general transit feed specification, AFC, and a strategic transport model from a large-scale multimodal public transport network. The South-East Queensland (SEQ) network in Australia is used as a case study. The AFC system in SEQ has voluminous and high quality data on passenger boardings and alightings across bus, rail and ferry modes. The results indicate that the proposed procedure can successfully develop a multi-modal transit assignment model at a large scale. Higher dispersions are seen for the bus mode, in contrast to rail and ferry modes. Furthermore, a comparison is made between the strategies used by passengers and the generated strategies by the model between each origin and destination to get more insights about the detailed behaviour of the model. Overall, the analysis indicates that the AFC data is a valuable and rich source in calibrating and validating a transit assignment model.

     

A note on the calculation and calibration of doubly constrained trip distribution models

The use of growth factor models for trip distribution has given way in the past to the use of more complex synthetic models. Nevertheless growth factor models are still used, for example in modelling external trips, in small area studies, in input-output analysis, and in category analysis. In this article a particular growth factor model, the Furness, is examined. Its application and functional form are described together with the method of iteration used in its operation. The expected information statistic is described and interpreted and it is shown that the Furness model predicts a trip distribution which, when compared with observed trips, has the minimum expected information subject to origin and destination constraints. An equivalent entropy maximising derivation is described and the two methods compared to show how the Furness iteration can be used in gravity models with specified deterrence functions. A trip distribution model explicitly incorporating information from observed trips, is then derived.It is suggested that if consistency is to be maintained between iteration, calibration, and the derivation of gravity models, then expected information should be used as the calibration statistic to measure goodness of fit. The importance of consistency in this respect is often overlooked.Lastly, the limitations of the models are discussed and it is suggested that it may be better to use the Furness iteration rather than any other, since it is more fully understood. In particular its ease of calculation makes it suitable for use in small models computed by hand.     

Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA

Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO₂ emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO₂ transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term - incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) - to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives.The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO₂ aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures.     

Household type and structure, time-use pattern, and trip-chaining behavior

In order to examine time allocation patterns within household-level trip-chaining, simultaneous doubly-censored Tobit models are applied to model time-use behavior within the context of household activity participation. Using the entire sample and a sub-sample of worker households from Tucson’s Household Travel Survey, two sets of models are developed to better understand the phenomena of trip-chaining behavior among five types of households: single non-worker households, single worker households, couple non-worker households, couple one-worker households, and couple two-worker households. Durations of out-of-home subsistence, maintenance, and discretionary activities within trip chains are examined. Factors found to be associated with trip-chaining behavior include intra-household interactions with the household types and their structure and household head attributes.