海运教育与培训以及操船模拟器的国际展望

着重对操船模拟器的作用、技术条件、质量保证进行了专业分析，同时阐述了其在海运教育与培训中的作用，以及这两个领域的国际协作前景。     

Model uncertainty and the management of a system of infrastructure facilities

The network-level infrastructure management problem involves selecting and scheduling maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation (MR&R) activities on networks of infrastructure facilities so as to maintain the level of service provided by the network in a cost-effective manner. This problem is frequently formulated as a Markov decision problem (MDP) solved via linear programming (LP). The conditions of facilities are represented by elements of discrete condition rating sets, and transition probabilities are employed to describe deterioration processes. Epistemic and parametric uncertainties not considered within the standard MDP/LP framework are associated with the transition probabilities used in infrastructure management optimization routines. This paper contrasts the expected costs incurred when model uncertainty is ignored with those incurred when this uncertainty is explicitly considered using robust optimization. A case study involving a network-level pavement management MDP/LP problem demonstrates how explicitly considering uncertainty may limit worst-case MR&R expenditures. The methods and results can also be used to identify the costs of uncertainty in transition probability matrices used in infrastructure management systems.     

A bottom-up solution for the multi-facility optimal pavement resurfacing problem

Transportation infrastructure management has been a subject of growing economic importance in recent years due to the magnitude of agency expenditures. Increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to model pavement deterioration and solve for optimal management strategies. However, it is unclear whether these more complex methods are providing more useful results. This paper presents a simple approach for optimizing the frequency and intensity of resurfacing for multiple highway facilities. It builds upon existing optimization methods for the single-facility, continuous-state, continuous-time problem and corresponding results, which include a threshold structure for optimal solutions. This threshold structure allows for mathematical simplifications and for a straightforward optimization approach to be applied to the multi-facility case. The approach is bottom-up rather than top-down, preserving facility-specific features to develop informative budget allocation results. Application of the approach in a case study indicates that solutions are likely to be robust to deterioration model uncertainty, which is consistent with previous facility-level findings. In addition, the methodology is shown to be robust to the form of the deterioration model.     

Incorporating inspection decisions in pavement management

Pavement management systems need to address not only maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) decisions, but also facility inspection decisions. The state of the art in pavement management is lacking of any consistent methodology for making such decisions on a cost-effectiveness basis. Such a methodology must recognize the presence of interactions between M&R and inspection decisions. These interactions argue for a joint decision-making approach, where the sum of inspection and M&R costs is minimized. This paper reviews different possible mathematical formulations to such a joint decision-making model, having various levels of restriction and computational complexity. These formulations are then compared and the effect of the forecast uncertainty on the minimum expected costs produced by each of them is investigated empirically. It is concluded that optimizing inspection decisions jointly with M&R decisions can lead to substantial cost savings, especially for high precisions of forecasting.     

Unintended environmental impacts of nighttime freight logistics activities

In recent years, the reduction of freight vehicle trips during peak hours has been a common policy goal. To this end, policies have been implemented to shift logistics operations to nighttime hours. The purpose of such policies has generally been to mitigate congestion and environmental impacts. However, the atmospheric boundary layer is generally more stable during the night than the day. Consequently, shifting logistics operations to the night may increase 24-h average concentrations of diesel exhaust pollutants in many locations. This paper presents realistic scenarios for two California cities, which provide diesel exhaust concentration and human intake estimates after temporal redistributions of daily logistics operations. Estimates are made for multiple redistribution patterns, including from 07:00–19:00 to 19:00–07:00, similar to daytime congestion charging polices, and from 03:00–18:00 to 18:00–03:00, corresponding to the PierPASS program at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Results for these two redistribution scenarios indicate that 24-h average exhaust concentrations would increase at most locations in California, and daily human intake is likely to worsen or be unimproved at best. These results are shown to be worse for inland than coastal settings, due to differences in meteorology. Traffic congestion effects are considered, using a new graphical method, which depicts how off-peak policies can be environmentally improving or damaging, depending on traffic speeds and meteorology.     

Cost-saving properties of schedule coordination in a simple trunk-and-feeder transit system

The paper explores how the coordination of vehicle schedules in a public transit system affects generalized costs. We consider an idealized system that delivers its users to a common destination by requiring each to transfer from a feeder- to a trunk-line vehicle. Continuum models are used first to analyze cases in which the trunk-line vehicle schedule is given exogenously. We find that when feeder vehicles are dispatched in coordination with this exogenous trunk-line schedule, the reduction in user cost often outweighs the added cost to the feeder operation. In cases when the frequencies of trunk and feeder services can be established jointly, the models show that coordination can be Pareto improving, meaning that operator and user costs both diminish. Conditions that give rise to these cost savings are specified. Practical implications are discussed.     

Measuring the safety impact of road infrastructure systems on driver behavior: Vehicle instrumentation and real world driving experiment

Featured in this pilot experimental study is the construction and design of an instrumented vehicle that is able to capture vehicle trajectory data with an extremely high level of accuracy and time resolution. Once constructed and properly instrumented, the various data collection systems were integrated with one another and a driving experiment was conducted on northern Virginia roadways with 18 participants taking part in the study. Trajectory data were collected for each of the drivers as they traversed a predefined loop of four roadway segments with varying numbers of lanes and varying shoulder widths. Data collected from the experiment were then used to calibrate the parameters of the prospect theory car-following model through a genetic algorithm calibration procedure. Once all model parameters were successfully calibrated, significance testing was carried out to determine the impacts that the varying roadway infrastructure had on driving behavior. Results indicated that there were significant changes in behavior when comparing one lane roadways to their two lane counterparts—specifically in cases where the roadway featured a wide shoulder. Additional testing was conducted to ensure that there was no variation based on gender, as nine study participants were female and nine were male. The successfulness of this first study conducted with the newly constructed instrumented vehicle creates the opportunity for a variety of additional studies to be conducted in the future.