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Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Robin Hickman Sharad Saxena David BanisterOlu Ashiru 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2012,46(3):560-575
Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO2 emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO2 emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO2 transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term - incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) - to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives.The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO2 aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ (Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures. 相似文献
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This paper examines the impact of traffic-flow on CO, NO2 and PM emissions at two distinct traffic junctions and evaluates the use of emission factors. The study includes three scenarios regarding pollutant emissions, which combine a field, experimental and semi-empirically estimated traffic parameters for free, interrupted and congested traffic-flow conditions. It evaluates the emission patterns for heterogeneity in traffic characteristics of both junctions. The results suggest the corrections to be made to emission factors at traffic junctions for better forecast of air quality. 相似文献
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Suresh Pandian Sharad Gokhale Aloke Kumar Ghoshal 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2009,14(3):180-196
Urban air quality is generally poor at traffic intersections due to variations in vehicles’ speeds as they approach and leave. This paper examines the effect of traffic, vehicle and road characteristics on vehicular emissions with a view to understand a link between emissions and the most likely influencing and measurable characteristics. It demonstrates the relationships of traffic, vehicle and intersection characteristics with vehicular exhaust emissions and reviews the traffic flow and emission models. Most studies have found that vehicular exhaust emissions near traffic intersections are largely dependent on fleet speed, deceleration speed, queuing time in idle mode with a red signal time, acceleration speed, queue length, traffic-flow rate and ambient conditions. The vehicular composition also affects emissions. These parameters can be quantified and incorporated into the emission models. There is no validated methodology to quantify some non-measurable parameters such as driving behaviour, pedestrian activity, and road conditions 相似文献
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