Incorporating uncertainty and risk in transportation investment decision-making

This paper presents a framework for addressing uncertainty and risk for large-scale transportation investments involving public–private participation. Demand, fare/toll and demand responsive costs are considered in the uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty analysis provides information on economic feasibility of the project. A set of relaxation policies is proposed to form various Ownership, Tenure and Governance (OTG) strategies reflecting the nature and level of participation by the public and private entity. A Monte Carlo Simulation-based Value at Risk is used to quantify risk. Finally, a methodology is proposed to integrate uncertainty and risk. The framework is tested on the proposed multibillion dollar Detroit River International Crossing connecting the cities of Detroit in the USA with Windsor in Canada. The analysis provides insights to probable outcomes for this transportation infrastructure investment under different OTG scenarios.     

Optimal ship tracking on a navigation route between two ports: a hydrodynamics approach

The optimal trajectory from Calcutta port to Mumbai port is charted for a tanker transshipping from the East coast to the West coast of India during rough weather. Rough weather is simulated over Indian seas using the state-of-the-art WAM numerical wave model (WAMDI Group in J Phys Oceanogr 18:1775–1810, 1988), assimilating satellite (IRS-P4) wind fields. These simulated wave fields and two-dimensional (2D) directional wave spectrum are an absolute representation of the irregular seaway. Hence, the same for the monsoon month of August 2000 formed the input basis for this study. Loss of ship speed due to the wave field (i.e., nonlinear motion of the tanker in waves) and associated sea-keeping characteristics in the seaway are estimated (Bhattacharya in Dynamics of marine vehicles, Wiley, New York, 1978). The approach adopted in this paper is unique in that it takes into account both voluntary and involuntary speed reductions of the ship. It helps in ship tracking by the optimum route using inverse velocity as the weight function for the path in an efficient way. Dijkstra’s algorithm [Numer Math 1(3):269–271, 1959] is applied in an iterative manner for determining the optimum track. The optimum track information has broad scope for use in modern shipping industry for obtaining safe and least-time routing by avoiding schedule delays with economic fuel consumption.