Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Estimating travel time functions for urban roads: options and issues

Travel time functions specify the relationship between the travel time on a road and the volume of traffic on the road. Until recently, the parameters of travel time functions were rarely estimated in practice; however, a compelling case can be made for the empirical examination of these functions. This paper reviews, and qualitatively evaluates, a range of options for developing a set of travel time functions. A hierarchy of travel time functions is defined based on four levels of network detail: area, corridor, route and link. This hierarchy is illustrated by considering the development of travel time functions for Adelaide. Alternative sources of data for estimating travel time functions are identified.

In general, the costs and benefits increase as the travel time functions are estimated at finer levels of network detail. The costs of developing travel time functions include data acquisition costs and analysis costs. The benefits include the potential for reducing prediction errors, the degree of application flexibility and the policy sensitivity of the travel time functions.     

交通拥堵反思

通过对交通拥堵进行反思,认为交通拥堵是充满活力的成功城市的伴生品,应从不同角度考虑拥堵问题.提出了十项有别于传统观点的提议,主要包括:机动性至关重要,交通拥堵是社会、经济活力的象征;道路扩容效果短暂,并会诱发潜在需求,但仍可带来一定的社会、经济效益;土地使用对出行行为的改变需要长期的努力;紧凑型发展会加剧交通拥堵;降低...     

Remoteness and accessibility in the vulnerability analysis of regional road networks

This paper considers the development of a method for network vulnerability analysis which considers the socio-economic impacts of network degradation and seeks to determine the most critical locations in the network. The method compares the levels of remoteness (or its inverse, accessibility) of localities within the study region, on the basis of the impacts of degradation of the road network on a recognised accessibility/remoteness index that can be applied to each and every location within the region. It thus extends the earlier work on accessibility-based vulnerability analysis which was limited to assessment of impacts on selected nodes in a network. The new method allows study of impacts on both specified locations (which do not have to be represented as network nodes) and the region as a whole. The accessibility/remoteness index is defined so that an accessibility surface can be calculated for the region, and the volume under this surface provides an overall measure of accessibility. Changes in the volume under different network states thus reflect the overall impacts. The method is applied to a rural region in south east Australia.     

The simple platoon advancement model of its technologies applied to vehicle control at signalised intersections

The Simple Platoon Advancement (SPA) Model describes a conceptual system whose principal objective is to increase the throughput of vehicles at signalised intersections. This is achieved through a novel combination of Intelligent Transport System (ITS) technologies including Automatic Cruise Control, Lane Departure Avoidance, and Collision Avoidance. These are combined in SPA so that vehicles are progressed through signalised intersections under automated control. All of the vehicles in a stationary queue are moved instantly at the start‐of‐green as a closely‐spaced platoon. Dispersion occurs after all vehicles are in motion. Throughput of the SPA model is determined analytically and comparisons are made between the SPA model and a valid representation of current road traffic behaviour. These comparisons show that theoretically a SPA system can progress nearly twice as many vehicles past the stopline as can be seen in today's road network. Other benefits of a conceptual SPA system are improved safety and a reduction in delay per vehicle.     

A model for the evaluation of some shipping company decisions

This paper describes a model which may be used in the evaluation of the relative effectiveness of policies used in the areas of ship chartering and the switching of combined carriers between the dry-cargo market and the tanker market. The policies for chartering and market switiching are expressed in the form of 'desired proportions' of the fleet operating in a particular charter-mode or a particular market. Graphical illustration of this form of expression of policies can be easily understood, so that alternative policies can be designed with relative case. The effectiveness of a particular from of policy under various freight market conditions can be determined from the model, the use of which is illustrated by its application to the deployment of the fleet of an hypothetical shipping company. It is assumed that the feedback connection between the company's actions and the market-place is negligible.     

A note on using Davidson's function in equilibrium assignment

This paper describes the use of the Davidson congestion function in modelling network flows using equilibrium assignment. A modification to the function is given, which defines the function over all flows values, and consequently removes computational difficulties noted in earlier studies. The modification requires the inclusion of an additional model parameter, and the selection of a suitable value for this parameter is studied for two sets of data. The modified Davidson function is also compared to two alternative functions; a step-wise linear function and a quartic polynomial function, which have both been proposed as congestion functions. Comparisons are made between observed link volumes and the assigned volumes from these models. It is concluded that the modified Davidson function is useful for inclusion in an equilibrium assignment model, given its ability to reflect differences in network link type (e.g. capacity and speed) and environment through its parameters, the conceptual advantage of the function through its derivation from queueing theory, and the previous discovery of reliable methods for estimating its parameters. A value of about 0.8–0.9 is suggested for the parameter (μ, 0 < μ < 1) introduced in the modification.     

20世纪美国应对机动性的交通构想及高速公路发展历程

为了阐述20世纪除汽车机动性外,交通发展经历的最重要的进程——城市高速公路的出现,考察了过去100年来美国城市交通规划的历史。通过回顾各种研究资料,认为资助州际公路发展所采用的方法使联邦和州公路工程师成为主管,这影响了公路的选线及设计。联邦公路工程师只关注机动车通过效率的最大化,而在很大程度上忽略了城市的其他利害关系。没有先进的规划理念指导、过度建设、稀疏、放射环状的道路网对于加强机动性取得了极大的效益,但通常要为此付出巨大的社会和环境成本。最后指出,在实践中要重新审视具有百年历史的协调交通与土地利用规划的观点,而且,公共财政权宜之计式的政治决策方式将对工程、出行和城市形态产生深远的影响。·     

A cause of oversupply and failure in the shipping market: measuring herding behavior effects

ABSTRACT

The shipping market is volatile. In general, the shipping market cycle shows four stages, through—recovery—peak—collapse, while a upward trend lasts for 7~8 years and a downward trend for another 7~8 years. So the market’s bubble is not sustainable but always ends in a recessionary trend. The economic cycle is common knowledge and an axiom of the shipping industry, but many ship-owners take no account of it. Previous study stated that ship-owners’ fears, triggered by a violently changeable market, make them mimic the crowd mind or herd mentality, following market sentiment. This study aims to measure the effects of herding behavior (HB), triggered by market sentiment, on the shipping market. We attempt to address two research questions: (1) How does HB arise, and what course does it follow? (2) How many vessels (or how many tons) were purchased under the influence of HB? We estimate that 50.5% (227.8 vessels) of the total vessels or 30.4% (3,670.2 tons) of the total tonnage were purchased under the influence of HB. Looking at international finance, we found that ship investment HB is a very strong factor of the recent shipping market, at least in Korea.     

What Happened to the National Road Carrier in a Post‐Communist Country? The Case of Poland's State Road Transport

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to seek to reconstruct the ownership transformation involving Poland's State Road Transport (PKS) companies passed through after 1990. Data collected from various sources (above all the Internet) were used to establish the degree of advancement of the transformation processes. Despite the passage of 18 years since the new economic reforms were launched, privatization processes are not well advanced. State ownership remains dominant, in the form of Treasury companies as well as state‐owned enterprises. Privatization processes have encompassed fewer than half of all firms, the most popular form taken (in about a quarter of all analysed cases) involving leasing by workers. This would seem of major interest, attesting as it does to the greater activity of some worker's teams, as well as the passive role of the state in privatization processes. A much smaller number of firms (26) have been purchased by external investors, the only important international concern among these being Veolia, which had taken control of 11 PKS companies as of mid‐2006. By and large, it is the firms carrying passengers or passenger and goods that are in a much better situation, as opposed to the companies that are commodity‐carriers only. The majority of the latter have collapsed, or have undergone the kind of privatization that involves simultaneous shutdown. Mixed passenger and goods carriers have had to reduce their level of activity in commodity transport.