A risk model for the operation of container vessels

Commercial shipping of containerized goods involves certain risks for human safety and environment. In order to actively manage these risks, they must be identified, analyzed, modeled, and quantified. This requires a systematical analysis of design and operation of container vessels. Within the EU-funded research project SAFEDOR, a Formal Safety Assessment has been applied to establish the current safety level of generic container ships and to identify potential cost-effective risk control options. This paper describes a structured approach to develop the underlying high-level risk model. It is structured as risk contribution tree consisting of a series of fault trees and event trees for the major accident categories. Statistical analysis of casualty data is used to estimate the probability of occurrence. Finally, the summation overall individual risk contributions yields the current risk pro file for the operation of container vessels is presented as FN-curve.     

Multi-objective optimization of oil tanker design

Parametric optimization was applied to a double-hull AFRAMAX tanker design in order to reduce oil-outflow probability and increase cargo carrying capacity, and the results are presented here. A multi-criteria optimization procedure was set up in modeFrontier ^® using the cargo volume, the mean oil-outflow parameter and the steel weight of the cargo block as the objective functions. Calculations are based on a parametric geometric model of the ship created in NAPA ^®, and on a structural model created in POSEIDON ^®. Integration of the above software packages leads to an automated optimization procedure that provides improved feedback to the designer regarding the trade-off between the various design parameters and optimization criteria involved. The results obtained suggest notable improvements in transport capacity and oil-outflow performance for known, well-established yard designs. The presented work derives from a joint industrial project between Germanischer Lloyd (GL) and the Ship Design Laboratory of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA-SDL), which continues the work done and coordinated by NTUA-SDL within the SAFEDOR project on the same subject.     

About attitudes and perceptions: finding the proper way to consider latent variables in discrete choice models

We provide an in-depth theoretical discussion about the differences between individual-specific latent constructs (representing attitudes, for example, but also other characteristics such as values or personality traits) and alternative-specific latent constructs (that may represent perceptions) affecting the choice-making process of individuals; we also carry out an empirical exercise to analyze their effects. This discussion is of importance, as the majority of papers considering attitudinal latent variables just take these as attributes affecting directly the utility of a certain alternative, while systematic taste variations are rarely considered and perceptions are mostly ignored. The results of our case study show that perceptions may indeed affect the decision making process and that they are able to capture a significant part of the variability that is normally explained by alternative specific constants. Furthermore, our results indicate that attitudes may be a reason for systematic taste variations, and that a proper categorization of latent variables, in accordance with underlying theory, may outperform the customary assumption of linearity.     

Old laws for new risks at sea: mineral resources, climate change, sea lanes, and cables

Maritime security in a broad sense means more than piracy and terrorism. This paper concentrates on the risk potential of current and future resource-related activities on the seabed. The seabed mining of hard mineral resources??in addition to hydrocarbons??leads to new controversial maritime boundary claims of states in their effort to expand national access rights to raw materials. Outer continental shelf claims in the Arctic Ocean are today's test bench for law of the sea conflicts. Fiber-optic cables running through regional seas, straits, and land bridges may become another risky issue, while the pattern of maritime transport routes is moving from Northern to Southern waters. Under a medium-term perspective, the sea level rise will endanger ports and coasts. Borderlines of maritime zones will move and thus generate more injustice and conflicts among states. The tools to solve borderline conflicts and options for dispute settlement are available in UNCLOS. Some other legal gaps are covered by the 2005 SUA Convention and by bilateral agreements, while resolutions by the UN Security Council begin to broaden rights of intervention and interdiction. The need for new laws remains.     

The Value of a Statistical Life in a Road Safety Context — A Review of the Current Literature

Abstract

This paper summarizes the state-of-the-art for assessing the value of a statistical life (VSL) as a component of the costs of road accidents. It focuses on the most popular approaches for assessing the VSL, with respect to its theoretical foundations, current state-of-research and empirical evidence. Our paper also provides a first (to our knowledge) compendium of results for the VSL based on Stated Choice (SC) methods. Among the analysed alternatives, the willingness-to-pay (WTP) appears to be the leading approach for assessing the VSL and the SC methods represent the current state-of-the-art for determining the WTP for non-market goods. We conclude that the SC approach overcomes some of the most important shortcomings of the alternative approaches and offers a significant flexibility that can be used to address its own limitations. We also identify a significant need for research, as a gap between the methods employed in research (SC methods) and the state-of-the-practice (other methods) has emerged.     

Weekly mobility of life cycle groups

This paper describes parts of a study of travel by urban residents on seven consecutive days. The conceptual structure of the research understands travel as a demand derived by a dynamic process of individuals and households allocating their budgets to activities within the framework posed by societal regimens. Societal rules have a time dimension which is repetitive with a weekly cycle. Thus, distinctive basic patterns of weekly mobility are expected for segments of the society and differences in the obligation to adhere to those basic patterns. The data used for testing these hypotheses is described and the issue of increasing reporting bias over the diary period is addressed. Sixteen life cycle groups of persons are selected here for the presentation of some findings.The profiles of trip rates for the groups over the seven days of the week (estimated with analysis of covariance) and the decomposition of the variances of trip rates into interindividual, intraindividual and systematic parts (by repeated measurement analysis) are reported. Characteristic differences in the volume of mobility, the shape of profiles and the variance components reflect different patterns of tripmaking for segments of the population over the week. It is concluded that even for well-defined person categories, interpersonal variety of mobility behavior is large but has to be seen in relation to even greater intrapersonal variability. Both components can best be understood within the period of one week which individuals use to organize their mobility.     

EU maritime transport

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the European maritime transport policy within the context of maritime politics at large. At the outset the legal framework conditions and supportive instruments for the shipping and port industries are presented. Against the background of recent accidents at sea, such as the sinking of ERIKA and PRESTIGE, the EU legislation on maritime safety is of particular interest as it is both complex and rapid in reaction to environmental needs and political pressure. Finally, the sensible relationship between the EU as a regional organization and the IMO as “the competent international organization” is discussed with a view to reconcile possible rivalry and to suggest a complementary cooperation between the two organizations.     

Piracy, navies and the law of the Sea: the case of Somalia

This contribution concentrates on the legal aspects of piracy and tries to explain some of the practical problems which modern navies experience in their fight against piracy and maritime violence off Somalia. The UN Law of the Sea Convention of 1982 provides a traditional though largely deficient set of rules for control and counter measures. Modern legal instruments such as the SUA Convention of 1988 as amended, recent resolutions of the UN Security Council and regional treaties try to fill the loopholes. Against this background the paper discusses e. g. the law of boarding and investigation of suspicious vessels, the arrest and penal prosecution of criminals and the right of self-defence in case of an imminent attack. The international mandates and the national rules of engagement in which the navies operate reflect these ambiguities that result in a loss of momentum. After all piracy is not an act of war, but a crime. In conclusion apolitical solution on land is indispensable as the navies and coast guards can only fight the symptoms and not the causes of crime and unrest in a failed State.     

National policy towards cars: the federal republic of Germany

Although much of the early technical development of the automobile occurred in Germany, the spread of car ownership within Germany was relatively slow up to 1933. Besides the general economic situation, this was due to the high costs of purchasing and running a car. With deliberate promotion of automobility by the national‐socialists after 1933, the pace of motorization proceeded more rapidly until the outbreak of World War II. Immediately after the war, motorization was slow to regain momentum but by the middle fifties, after the initial phase of post‐war reconstruction, the rapid build‐up of cars began again and has continued ever since. By 1986, the West German car fleet exceeded 27 million and 80% of motorized passenger kilometres were made by car.

This rapid post‐war growth was made possible by a liberal transport policy which reacted to growing car use by adaptation and provision of the necessary infrastructure. The adverse effects of vehicular traffic on the environment and on the urban quality of life moved policy at the end of the sixties towards stronger support for urban public transport and regulations for noise and exhaust emissions of automobiles. Also, the high toll of death and injuries from road accidents made improvement of road safety another important policy objective. So far, however, measures taken have fallen short of requiring changes in driver behaviour. Although there is widespread awareness of the environmental and accident costs of automobility, there is a reluctance to legislate (or for people voluntarily) to modify driving behaviour for social objectives.

This paper presents, briefly, the main instruments that have been applied in West Germany to achieve car‐related transport policy objectives, including the latest modifications in the tax system intended to foster the use of low‐emission vehicles. Possible future directions of policy towards the car, depending inter alia on changes in government, are also explored.