Black Boxes - Pathetic progress but some success now in sight

Little has been written about the ship demolition market, an essential element in the supply/demand balance for shipping. Either technical or economic obsolescence may be the cause for scrapping a ship, where the latter is strongly influenced not only by anticipated freight market levels, but the rate at which more efficient ships are being introduced. The scrap value of a ship is a function both of the realizable value of the materials within the ship and cost of demolition. Both are strongly influenced by the cost structures prevailing in the likely country of demolition. The paper explores not only the fundamentals of the ship demolition market, but the trends from the 1960s to the present. The shipbreaking market has moved in that time from being West European-centred to Asian-centred, concentrating for some years in Taiwan, but now shifting to the Indian subcontinent.     

Net tax incidence for urban public transit subsidies in New Zealand

This paper examines the impact of policy changes in the funding of New Zealand public transit modes.These changes, introduced in 1983, are evaluated in terms of the net incidence of public transit subsidy assistance, taking into account its source of funding and the income class of those commuters benefiting from the subsidy. The general conclusion is that the net incidence of subsidy assistance remains progressive (i.e., a transfer from high to low income commuters) following the introduction of shared funding on the predominant public transit modes (rail and bus), sourced from income tax (central government) and property tax (regional/local government). However, because of the predominance of medium to high income commuters on rail vis-a-vis bus and the traditional source of funding on these modes in terms of income tax (a progressive tax source) and property tax (a regressive tax source), the degree of progressivity previously associated with public transit subsidies has now substantially reduced.The analysis and opinions expressed in this paper are the responsibility of the author alone and do not purport to represent the views of the Ministry of Transport.     

Modeling capacity flexibility of transportation networks

Flexibility of the transportation system is one of the important performance measures needed to deal with demand changes. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of capacity flexibility for the passenger transportation network using bi-level network capacity models. Two approaches for assessing the value of capacity flexibility are proposed. One approach is based on the concept of reserve capacity, which reflects the flexibility with respect to changes in terms of demand volume only. The second approach allows for variations in the demand pattern in addition to changes in demand volume in order to more fully capture demand changes. Two models are developed in the second approach to consider two types of capacity flexibility. The total capacity flexibility allows all users to have both route choice and destination choice when estimating capacity flexibility. The limited capacity flexibility estimates how much more demand volume could be added to a fixed demand pattern by allowing the additional demand to deviate from the fixed demand pattern. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the different concepts of capacity flexibility for a passenger transportation system under demand changes.     

Seaport research: A structured literature review on methodological issues since the 1980s

This study aims to investigate how seaport research has been conducted from the methodological perspective. To this end, this study reviews published port literature for the last three decades (1980-2000s). The investigation primarily categorises the literature according to various methodological issues such as research paradigm, research strategy, base-disciplines, research methods and analysis techniques in order to provide meaningful implications on methodological evolution in seaport research for the period. This study suggests methodological bias in port research to a positivistic paradigm, following a quantitative trajectory moving from conceptual to empirical studies. In addition, the increased use of mathematical modelling and advanced statistical analysis methods is clearly observed. The introduction of advanced analytical tools used in other academic disciplines facilitates discussions in particular research area and amplifies the literature in those areas. This paper also suggests research gaps from the methodological perspective and implications for future port research.     

TRAMS: Transit route animation and modelling by simulation

Public transport managers and operators face increasingly difficult problems in providing adequate levels of service at reasonable social and financial costs. A greater demand exists for analytical techniques which allow them to evaluate changes in operational strategies before committing themselves to implementation in the field. This paper describes the development of a discrete event simulation model for the analysis of on-street transit routes. The structure of the model is described and details are provided of the types of events which are explicitly modelled in the TRAMS package. The input requirements are described, and the modular nature of the simulation model is highlighted. The various options for output format are described, including the use of a computer graphics real-time animation option. The range of output performance measures are then discussed, and some comments on areas of application conclude the paper.     

Assessing the effects of stochastic perception error under travel time variability

Perceived mean-excess travel time is a new risk-averse route choice criterion recently proposed to simultaneously consider both stochastic perception error and travel time variability when making route choice decisions under uncertainty. The stochastic perception error is conditionally dependent on the actual travel time distribution, which is different from the deterministic perception error used in the traditional logit model. In this paper, we investigate the effects of stochastic perception error at three levels: (1) individual perceived travel time distribution and its connection to the classification by types of travelers and trip purposes, (2) route choice decisions (in terms of equilibrium flows and perceived mean-excess travel times), and (3) network performance measure (in terms of the total travel time distribution and its statistics). In all three levels, a curve fitting method is adopted to estimate the whole distribution of interest. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate and visualize the above analyses. The graphical illustrations allow for intuitive interpretation of the effects of stochastic perception error at different levels. The analysis results could enhance the understanding of route choice behaviors under both (subjective) stochastic perception error and (objective) travel time uncertainty. Some suggestions are also provided for behavior data collection and behavioral modeling.     

Fuel price changes and their impacts on urban transport – a literature review using bibliometric and content analysis techniques, 1972–2017

ABSTRACT

While the period of heightened oil prices in 2005–2014 has attracted considerable academic and policy attention, there is scant cross-disciplinary research considering energy price, transport and land use together. In car dependent societies many socio-economically disadvantaged areas often lack public and active transport accessibility. Emerging research focus has been placed on issues of transport equity including effects of fuel prices. We reviewed 45 years (1972–2017) of publications about fuel price impacts, transport, and urban context, drawn from Web of Science listed publications. Bibliographic citation analysis reveals eight major research clusters with a set of inter-city comparative studies at their centre. The historical evolution, geographical trends, research approaches and the key themes are revealed by context analysis. The paper highlights the need for further studies looking at energy, transport and land use interaction, and suggests a greater focus on transport equity.