Consistency and fungibility of monetary valuations in transport: An empirical analysis of framing and mental accounting effects

Governments around the world use monetised values of transport externalities to undertake project appraisal and cost–benefit analysis. However, because different types of benefits are monetised (e.g., travel time savings, preventing statistical fatalities, reliability, etc.) the question naturally arises as to whether they are consistent. That is, whether a “dollar is a dollar” as welfare economics requires, or whether spending money in one area carries a different disutility from spending money in another area. This would equate to a violation of fungibility, which is the property of a good or a commodity whose individual units are capable of mutual substitution. The view that money is not fungible is explained in behavioural economics through theories of framing and mental accounting. This paper describes the results of a stated choice experiment designed to test the fungibility and consistency of monetary valuations in transport. From a nationally representative sample, we elicit direct values for the three pairwise trade-offs between travel time, travel cost, and safety. We then show that in the context of our analysis, any trade-offs inferred on the basis of other trade-offs, as is common practice (e.g. inferring a safety vs time trade-off on the basis of monetary valuations for time and safety), produces biased results, suggesting that the assumption of fungibility does not hold. Specifically, we find that time is valued more highly when valued directly by cost than when traded with safety, and the reverse is true for safety.     

中国交通工程面临的挑战

在为上海市政府编写了交通白皮书初稿的4年之后,ColinBuchanan公司又受邀为已出版的白皮书的修改提供建议,以解决交通拥堵问题和确定不同交通方式应起的作用.建议提出应发展比导致拥堵的小汽车和出租汽车更好的交通方式,然后鼓励大众使用它们.依据在上海工作的经历,对中国交通工程面临的部分问题进行了阐述.     

Recycling of aluminum from fibre metal laminates

Recycling of aluminum alloy scrap obtained from delaminated fibre metal laminates (FMLs) was studied through high temperature refining in the presence of a salt flux. The aluminum alloy scrap contains approximately mass fraction w(Cu) = 4.4%, w(Mg) = 1.1% and w(Mn) = 0.6% (2024 aluminum alloy). The main objective of this research is to obtain a high metal yield, while maintaining its original alloy compositions. The work focuses on the metal yield and quality of recycled Al alloy under different refining conditions. The NaCl-KCl salt system was selected as the major components of flux in the Al alloy recycling. Two different flux compositions were employed at NaCl to KCl mass ratios of 44:56 and 70:30 respectively, based on either the eutectic composition, or the European preference. Different additives were introduced into the NaCl-KCl system to study the effect of flux component on recycling result. Although burning and oxidation loss of the alloying elements during re-melting and refining take place as the drawbacks of conventional refining process, the problems can be solved to a large extent by using an appropriate salt flux. Experimental results indicate that Mg in the alloy gets lost when adding cryolite in the NaCl-KCl salt system, though the metal yield can reach as high as 98%. However, by adding w(MgF₂) = 5% into the NaCl-KCl salt system (instead of using cryolite) all alloying elements were well controlled to its original composition with a metal yield of almost 98%.     

A simplified methodology for evaluating alternative tanker configurations

Current MARPOL regulations for hypothetical oil ouflow and tank size limitations apply a deterministic approach which does not properly account for varying wing tank and double-bottom dimensions. Important considerations such as the influence of hydrostatic balance and tidal changes on the stranded vessel are not addressed in these regulations. This paper presents a more rational approach for evaluating oil outflow for double-hull and mid-deck tankers. This proposed methodology, while easy to apply, allows for the optimization of tankage configurations, and provides an effective means for indexing the environmental performance of tankers.     

Multimodal traveling and its impact on urban transit network design

Multimodal trip making, that is trips using a combination of several modes between origin and destination, is expected to be beneficial to society and might offer advantages to the traveler as well. This article looks at some of the implications of multi‐modality in trip making for the design of urban transit systems since these play an important role in multi‐modal transportation systems. In this respect, the article looks at the strategic design characteristics of urban transit networks, that is line density, stop density and service frequencies for the case of multimodal access to urban transit networks and for hierarchical network structures in urban transit systems. The analyses show that multimodal access does not require alternative network structures. For hierarchical network structures it is concluded that these are primarily determined by the hierarchy in demand densities and thus by hierarchy in urban structures.     

Can agents measure up? A comparative study of an agent-based and on-line optimization approach for a drayage problem with uncertainty

Experiments studying the behavior of agent-based methods over varying levels of uncertainty in comparison to traditional optimization methods are generally absent from the literature. In this paper we apply two structurally distinct solution approaches, an on-line optimization and an agent-based approach, to a drayage problem with time windows under two types of uncertainty. Both solution approaches are able to respond to dynamic events. The on-line optimization approach utilizes a mixed integer program to obtain a feasible route at 30-s intervals. The second solution approach deploys agents that engage in auctions to satisfy their own objectives based on the information they perceive and maintain locally. Our results reveal that the agent-based system can outperform the on-line optimization when service time duration is highly uncertain. The on-line optimization approach, on the other hand, performs competitively with the agent-based system under conditions of job-arrival uncertainty. When both moderate service time and job-arrival uncertainties are combined, the agent system outperforms the on-line optimization; however, in the case of extremely high combined uncertainty, the on-line optimization outperforms the agent-based approach.     

Identifying the early adopters of alternative fuel vehicles: A case study of Birmingham,United Kingdom

The transport sector has been identified as a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. As part of its emissions reduction strategy, the United Kingdom Government is demonstrating support for new vehicle technologies, paying attention, in particular, to electric vehicles.Cluster analysis was applied to Census data in order to identify potential alternative fuel vehicle drivers in the city of Birmingham, United Kingdom. The clustering was undertaken based on characteristics of age, income, car ownership, home ownership, socio-economic status and education. Almost 60% of areas that most closely fitted the profile of an alternative fuel vehicle driver were found to be located across four wards furthest from Birmingham city centre, while the areas with the poorest fit were located towards the centre of Birmingham. The paper demonstrates how Census data can be used in the initial stages of identifying potential early adopters of alternative vehicle drivers. It also shows how such research can provide scope for infrastructure planning and policy development for local and national authorities, while also providing useful marketing information to car manufacturers.     

Estimation of train dwell time at short stops based on track occupation event data: A study at a Dutch railway station

Train dwell time is one of the most unpredictable components of railway operations, mainly because of the varying volumes of alighting and boarding passengers. However, for reliable estimations of train running times and route conflicts on main lines, it is necessary to obtain accurate estimations of dwell times at the intermediate stops on the main line, the so‐called short stops. This is a great challenge for a more reliable, efficient and robust train operation. Previous research has shown that the dwell time is highly dependent on the number of boarding and alighting passengers. However, these numbers are usually not available in real time. This paper discusses the possibility of a dwell time estimation model at short stops without passenger demand information by means of a statistical analysis of track occupation data from the Netherlands. The analysis showed that the dwell times are best estimated for peak and off‐peak hours separately. The peak‐hour dwell times are estimated using a linear regression model of train length, dwell times at previous stops and dwell times of the preceding trains. The off‐peak‐hour dwell times are estimated using a non‐parametric regression model, in particular, the k‐nearest neighbor model. There are two major advantages of the proposed estimation models. First, the models do not need passenger flow data, which is usually impossible to obtain in real time in practice. Second, detailed parameters of rolling stock configuration and platform layout are not required, which makes the model more generic and eases implementation. A case study at Dutch railway stations shows that the estimation accuracy is 85.8%–88.5% during peak hours and 80.1% during off‐peak hours, which is relatively high. We conclude that the estimation of dwell times at short stop stations without passenger data is possible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

道路收费政策典型案例分析

2005年英国政府宣布建立“交通创新基金”,后来人们才意识到所谓“创新”意味着道路收费,而与改进公共交通系统没有任何关系。2年之后,英国政府面临对轨道交通系统进行巨额投资,而该系统被认为是在大都市地区实施一系列道路收费项目的前提。因此,当前有必要对世界范围内的道路收费政策加以研究,以找出有效的道路收费系统所具有的特征以及能够成功实施应具备的条件。     

The biogeochemical cycling of methane in Ria de Vigo, NW Spain: Sediment processing and sea–air exchange

Methane (CH₄) concentrations were measured in the water column, in sediment porewaters, and in atmospheric air, in the Ría de Vigo, NW Spain, during both the onset (April 2003) and at the end of (September 2004) seasonal upwelling. In addition, CH₄ concentration and stable isotopic signatures (δ¹³CH₄) were measured in porewaters, and sediment methanogenesis and aerobic oxidation of CH₄ were determined in sediment incubations. Surface water column CH₄ (2 m depth) was in the range 3–180 nmol l^− 1 (110–8500% saturation) and followed a generally landward increase but with localised maxima in both the inner and middle Ría. These maxima were consistent with CH₄ inputs from underlying porewaters in which CH₄ concentrations were up to 3 orders of magnitude higher (maximum 350 μmol l^− 1). Surface water CH₄ concentrations were approximately three times higher in September than in April, consistent with a significant benthic CH₄ flux driven by enhanced sediment methanogenesis following the summer productivity maximum. CH₄ and δ¹³CH₄ in sediment porewaters and in incubated sediment slurries (20 °C) revealed significant sediment CH₄ oxidation, with an apparent isotopic fractionation factor (r_c) of  1.004. Using turbulent diffusion models of air–sea exchange we estimate an annual emission of atmospheric CH₄ from the Ría de Vigo of 18–44 × 10⁶ g (1.1–2.7 × 10⁶ mol). This estimate is approximately 1–2 orders of magnitude lower than a previous estimate based on a bubble transport model.