对中国未来10年道路交通安全状况分析与初步预测

笔者从中国现代道路交通系统的发展现状与道路交通安全状况出发，以过去10多年中国汽车、摩托车保有量的发展轨迹为基础，对中国未来一定时期（2004～2015年）机动车保有量的发展变化及政府采取不同管理对策条件下的道路交通安全状况的发展水平进行了预测。结果表明：政府管理对策对道路交通安全状况变化具有决定性影响。     

Emergence of cooperation in congested road networks using ICT and future and emerging technologies: A game-based review

Information and communications technologies (ICT) and future and emerging technologies (FET) are expected to revolutionize transportation in the next generation. Travelers’ behavioral adaptation is a key to their success. We discuss the notion of managing traffic congestion by enhancing cooperation in road networks enabled with ICT and FET. Cooperation is an emergent social state related to the dynamics and complexity of road traffic and reinforced learning. Game theory and research in behavioral economics show that cooperation can be leveraged to efficiently solve social dilemmas similar to traffic congestion. We review the applicability of behavioral economics and game theory concepts to route, mode and departure time choice problems. Beyond advancing theory, research on cooperation in the context of transportation is still in its infancy. We discuss state-of-the-art methodologies and their weaknesses and review the unexplored opportunities inherent in game-based methodologies. A behavioral-technological research agenda for FET is also discussed.     

Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future

Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated.     

城市处理生活垃圾法规弊端分析及其改进措施

文章通过对西安市规制生活垃圾法律规章的认识以及对处理垃圾现状的调查，由小及大地分析了在各地法律规章中普遍存在的弊端，大胆提出了未来法律规章应当遵循的立法原则以及应当建立的法律制度。并且希望垃圾分装、统一收购、奖惩并举和调动个人与社会力量参与处理生活垃圾的主张能对未来立法有所裨益。     

Much Ado about Nothing? - An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry

From 2012 on, all CO₂ emissions from flights departing from or arriving at airports within the European Union have to be offset. We analyze the economic and ecological impacts that are caused by an inclusion of the aviation industry into the proposed emissions trading scheme (ETS). Building on the now fixed system design we employ a simulation model to estimate the impacts of the scheme. Our results indicate that financial impacts are highly dependant on external settings, such as allowance prices and demand growth. We show that the financial burden on the aviation industry will be rather modest in the first years after the introduction of the system and therefore induce only low competition distortions. Likewise, emission reductions within air transportation will be comparably low. While aviation will induce a decline of emissions in other sectors, significant absolute reductions within air transportation can only be reached by a more restrictive system design.     

轻量化材料驱动汽车的未来

低碳经济促进汽车新材料产业发展是时代的要求,汽车材料正在向轻量化、节省资源、高性能和高功能方向发展.文章介绍了车用材料与汽车性能的关系,结合汽车材料轻量化的重要性和迫切性以及轻量化新材料减轻汽车质量的潜力,分析了汽车轻量化材料的利用情况,指出了现代汽车新材料的发展动向,即：钢铁的使用比例下降,铝及塑料等轻量化材料的使用将逐步推广.     

车辆混合动力传动系统开发现状与展望

本文通过对车辆动力传动系统能量分配型式及特点的分析，提出在市区公共汽车等车辆上使用具有良好综合性能的混合动力传动系统。并对各种型式的车辆混合动力传动系统的研究现状进行了分析与总结，展望了未来的发展趋势，对以后的研究，开发具有指导意义。     

基于企业效益与员工未来的研究

论述了是企业效益和员工未来的关系,并提出每个企业员工不仅要在不同的岗位上做好本职的工作,同时还要和其它岗位互相协调,以企业的大局为重,从企业的战略目标出发,为企业多创造效益,不断提高自身综合素质,共同构建和谐企业。     

Assessing the impact of long-term mobility choice motivation and short-term mobility means connotation on the use intention of electric cars in rural areas

In this study several hypotheses comprising a heuristic framework derived from rational-choice (RC) premises and regarding some potentially influencing variables on future use intention of different vehicle types are tested with a rural area sample. Especially the differentiation between long-term vs. short-term as well as functional/rational vs. extra-functional/emotional motivators is assessed. Results suggest a predominance of functional motivators and rational connotations over extra-functional/emotional ones. The models to check whether short-term or long-term effects dominate did not clearly confirm a predominance of long-term factors as hypothesized. In several regression models a moderating effect of rational short-term connotations on different long-term motivators was found, thus contributing notably to the prediction of future vehicle use-intention. The need for further research and theory-driven modeling is briefly discussed.