香港地铁的安全风险管理

概述地铁有限公司在香港建立和实践安全风险管理体系的经验、运营铁路安全管理组织架构、工程项目各阶段的安全风险管理规划、主要安全风险管理任务及分析方法等.     

Developing a Spatially Enabled Inventory of Recreational Boats Using Vessel Registration Data

Effective waterway management requires information on the characteristics and locations of boats. A field-based boat census—a traditional method to obtain spatially accurate information—is relatively expensive, time-consuming, and restrictive in scope. Vessel registration data, maintained by all U.S. states, is potentially a more robust information source. This research evaluated the accuracy and reliability of vessel registration data to supply location and attribute information for boats. The study premise was to use vessel registration data, which includes the mailing address of registered boat owners, to develop a spatially enabled inventory of boats. The study area comprised 12,064 salt-water accessible property parcels in two Florida counties. An on-water census (OWC) provided location and characteristics for 5,023 vessels, which were compared to 8,681 vessel registration records linked to the study area. Discrepancies between the OWC and vessel registration data were explained by a stratified, random sample of 485 telephone survey respondents. Study results show that vessel registration data accurately located and characterized roughly 81% of the boat population; in contrast, the OWC accurately located less than 56%. A conclusion is that state vessel registration data is a better alternative than an OWC for locating and characterizing boats kept along waterways.     

Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

The effects of information bias and riding frequency on noise annoyance to a new railway extension in Hong Kong

We investigate how two non-acoustic factors, information bias and riding frequency, can affect the annoyance response of an urban population to noise created by a new railway line. The study shows that information bias is asymmetrical. Respondents receiving only information on positive measures taken by the authority to reduce noise emission are more tolerant of the noise impact, but those receiving only critical views tend to be more annoyed because they feel that not all measures to reduce noise have been employed. Additionally people who use the line frequently are more tolerant to the noise impact than those who do not. Information bias seems to have a temporary masking effect over riding frequency lasting for a few weeks after railway opening. This suggest that whilst free flow of information provided by the authority can help alleviate annoyance response, encouraging the people affected to make use of the new infrastructure may be useful to reduce public resistance and noise annoyance.     

Estimating the robustness of questionnaire results: lessons from a mixed-mode survey of expectations for tele-working and road-based business travel

The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy) survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions. Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics, and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness, for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating and contextualising SP and SE exercises.

基于ABAQUS的地质偏压隧道非线性接触分析

针对于山岭隧道常出现的,穿越倾斜产状的层状岩体,或多在隧道进出口处节理裂隙发育的情况,结合成兰铁路茂县隧道出口地段所处的地质偏压环境,应用ABAQUS有限元分析软件中的面-面接触单元,建立节理软弱结构面的二维隧道模型。并对地质偏压隧道的围岩压力及衬砌结构内力进行非线性接触分析和计算,初步得出单线铁路隧道在地质偏压情况下围岩和衬砌结构的位移、应力的分布特征,并讨论软弱结构面的摩擦系数对隧道偏压作用的影响,根据隧道受力特点提出隧道在地质偏压情况下可能采取的建议和措施。     

融资租赁船舶所有权登记

从国际船舶融资的角度看,缺少船舶融资租赁权登记规定的船舶登记制度,是不利于跨国船舶融资租赁的。我国《船舶登记条例》中有关光船租赁权登记制度的基本精神和具体做法可为船舶融资租赁权登记制度提供有益借鉴。但仍存在一些不足,笔者试着从这方面提出若干建议。     

论船舶登记的公信力

公信力理论起源于德国,是登记的理论基础。文中从物权的公示和公信力理论出发,剖析公信力理论的内涵、现实意义、在国外的适用情况,并联系我国船舶登记的实际情况,阐述公信力理论在我国建立的必要性和可行性,提出可通过引入船舶登记前置的公证程序和变更异议登记制度等途径进一步提高和完善船舶登记的公信力。     

公路隧道洞口斜交、偏压段施工技术

以云山隧道右线进口不良地质段为实例,详细介绍了洞身与山体斜交、偏压时,采用双层超前小导管注浆加固隧道围岩进洞时小导管的设计参数、施工工艺、施工要点等,对同类工程施工有一定借鉴作用。     

CoFe2O4的磁性和交换偏置场研究

用化学共沉淀法制备出颗粒细小的CoFe2O4纳米微粉,利用x射线衍射确定了粉体的组成,利用扫描电子显微镜观察了颗粒的形貌,利用振动样品磁强计测量了室温下粉体的磁性能。结果显示,常温下,存在交换偏置场。