山区公路地质灾害评价模型探讨

目前对公路沿线地质灾害的评价方法以定性评价为主,尚未形成一套行之有效的定量或半定量评价体系和方法。文章根据公路工程的特点以及现有的地质灾害评估理论和实践,并结合公路地质灾害野外调查情况,提出了公路地质灾害发育程度、危害性、发展趋势及危险性评价方法,可供有关部门参考。     

汶川地震震中区高速公路隧道超前地质预报方法

映汶高速公路公路位于四川汶川大地震震中,受地震强烈构造作用影响,隧址区岩体裂隙发育,松散破碎,存在构造富水,地震垮塌堆积体众多,地质条件极为复杂。文章根据本工程隧道的工程地质问题,通过对国内外隧道超前地质预报常用方法的分析,提出了针对本工程的隧道超前地质预报方案,并对地质预报的实施应用及效果进行了举例说明。     

Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?

A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment costs are higher and benefits lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit–cost ratios remain a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless.     

地质雷达数据变换处理及其应用

由于设备条件以及噪声干扰,地质雷达测线数据判读精度受到很大影响。尝试解读数据内在格式,并进一步进行数据变换,增强有效信号,降低干扰;通过绘图模块生成波形图,分析其地质特征。提高了判断精度,减少了工作量,操作更加方便。     

The effects of information bias and riding frequency on noise annoyance to a new railway extension in Hong Kong

We investigate how two non-acoustic factors, information bias and riding frequency, can affect the annoyance response of an urban population to noise created by a new railway line. The study shows that information bias is asymmetrical. Respondents receiving only information on positive measures taken by the authority to reduce noise emission are more tolerant of the noise impact, but those receiving only critical views tend to be more annoyed because they feel that not all measures to reduce noise have been employed. Additionally people who use the line frequently are more tolerant to the noise impact than those who do not. Information bias seems to have a temporary masking effect over riding frequency lasting for a few weeks after railway opening. This suggest that whilst free flow of information provided by the authority can help alleviate annoyance response, encouraging the people affected to make use of the new infrastructure may be useful to reduce public resistance and noise annoyance.     

Estimating the robustness of questionnaire results: lessons from a mixed-mode survey of expectations for tele-working and road-based business travel

The robustness of questionnaire results to various forms of bias are explored in the context of a dual-mode (web and hardcopy) survey of employers’ anticipations of levels of employee commuting and business travel activity under a range of future ICT scenarios. The questionnaire incorporated several innovative features which, together with the dual-mode format, allowed an unusually wide range of analyses. For example: the robustness of respondents’ opinions was tested by examining the effect of incorporating alternative versions of a briefing text, one being very positive and one very negative, about the role of ICT; instrument bias was identified via detailed comparison of the results from the two versions of the questionnaire; and the impact of exogenous factors which are often ignored or taken as constant was assessed via special supplementary questions. Analysis showed that the robustness of opinions and expectations varied and was influenced by respondent characteristics, and that results from the two versions of the questionnaire differed significantly. It is concluded that opinions and expectations are less robust, and questionnaire results are more subject to bias and myopic interpretation, than is generally recognised and that web-based surveys seem particularly vulnerable to sampling bias. Methods are suggested for measuring robustness, for reducing bias and for validating and contextualising results. The use of contrasting briefing texts is recommended as a means of establishing the robustness of opinions and expectations while supplementary questions are recommended for validating and contextualising SP and SE exercises.

西部地区公路地质灾害监测预报技术研究

“西部地区公路地质灾害监测预报技术研究”项目针对西部地区公路地质灾害危险性区划、滑坡、崩塌与泥石流监测预报及地质灾害安全管理等关键技术问题进行深入系统研究，形成了公路滑坡、崩塌与泥石流监测预报成套技术，建立了公路地质灾害数据标准，构建了“基于GIS的公路地质灾害监测预报信息系统”平台，实现了公路地质灾害监测实时分析处理和动态预报，为地质灾害综合管理提供技术支撑。     

基于ABAQUS的地质偏压隧道非线性接触分析

针对于山岭隧道常出现的,穿越倾斜产状的层状岩体,或多在隧道进出口处节理裂隙发育的情况,结合成兰铁路茂县隧道出口地段所处的地质偏压环境,应用ABAQUS有限元分析软件中的面-面接触单元,建立节理软弱结构面的二维隧道模型。并对地质偏压隧道的围岩压力及衬砌结构内力进行非线性接触分析和计算,初步得出单线铁路隧道在地质偏压情况下围岩和衬砌结构的位移、应力的分布特征,并讨论软弱结构面的摩擦系数对隧道偏压作用的影响,根据隧道受力特点提出隧道在地质偏压情况下可能采取的建议和措施。     

公路隧道洞口斜交、偏压段施工技术

以云山隧道右线进口不良地质段为实例,详细介绍了洞身与山体斜交、偏压时,采用双层超前小导管注浆加固隧道围岩进洞时小导管的设计参数、施工工艺、施工要点等,对同类工程施工有一定借鉴作用。     

隧道超前地质预报方法选取研究与应用

通过对隧道超前地质预报的几种物探方法的理论分析,揭示各种方法的使用前提及最终所得参数和信息,在此基础上总结出各种方法的优缺点和适宜范围。提出以地质分析为核心与指导,选择探测突变参数,多方法综合对比分析的物探方法选取原则,使物探方法的选择更有针对性,所得到的解译结果物性差异明显,便于分析判别,并提高预报的准确性。