Validation of an extended discrete first-order model with variable speed limits

This paper validates the prediction model embedded in a model predictive controller (MPC) of variable speed limits (VSLs). The MPC controller was designed based on an extended discrete first-order model with a triangular fundamental diagram. In our previous work, the extended discrete first-order model was designed to reproduce the capacity drop and the propagation of jam waves, and it was validated with reasonable accuracy without the presence of VSLs. As VSLs influence traffic dynamics, the dynamics including VSLs needs to be validated, before it can be applied as a prediction model in MPC. For conceptual illustrations, we use two synthetic examples to show how the model reproduces the key mechanisms of VSLs that are applied by existing VSL control approaches. Furthermore, the model is calibrated by use of real traffic data from Dutch freeway A12, where the field test of a speed limit control algorithm (SPECIALIST) was conducted. In the calibration, the original model is extended by using a quadrangular fundamental diagram which keeps the linear feature of the model and represents traffic states at the under-critical branch more accurately. The resulting model is validated using various traffic data sets. The accuracy of the model is compared with a second-order traffic flow model. The performance of two models is comparable: both models reproduce accurate results matching with real data. Flow errors of the calibration and validation are around 10%. The extended discrete first-order model-based MPC controller has been demonstrated to resolve freeway jam waves efficiently by synthetic cases. It has a higher computation speed comparing to the second-order model-based MPC.     

Point-to-point speed enforcement systems: Speed limits design criteria and analysis of drivers’ compliance

Point-to-point (P2P) speed enforcement is a relatively new approach to traffic law enforcement. Its technology allows vehicles whose average speed exceeds the speed limit over the controlled section to be fined. It therefore encourages compliance over distances longer than those where spot enforcement policies have been in place.In this paper, a procedure for consistently setting speed limits with such enforcement systems is proposed. Such a method has been applied to design the speed limits on two motorways in the district of Naples, Italy, where P2P enforcement systems became operational in 2009 and 2010. The speed limits, which were set using the Italian geometric design standard to assess vehicle stability and stopping sight distance, have been compared with those provided by using well-known international standards.The impact of the newly designed speed limits and of the P2P enforcement system on drivers’ speeding behaviour has been quantified for each highway section and vehicle type. In fact, accurate measurements of the average travel speeds of each vehicle crossing the enforced sections, before and after the activation of the system, were available. The migration from the old speed limits with spot speed enforcement to the new approach resulted in a notable increase in drivers’ compliance to the speed limits with a remarkable decrease in both the average of individual speeds and in their standard deviation.In addition, the analysis of 3 years of data shows that a gradual adaptation of drivers’ behaviour to the system took place. In particular, a decreasing compliance to the speed limits points to a non-optimal system management. Finally, the results of a revealed preference survey allowed us to make a behavioural interpretation regarding the significantly different impacts measured on the two motorways.     

美国限速制定方法及启示

为使我国道路限速的制定更为合理,借鉴国外相关经验是必不可少的。总结了美国设置限速时考虑的主要因素、限速设置方法及其适用条件。对美国部分城市的州际道路及主干路的限速实施状况进行了分析,认为测速相机等自动执法设备的辅助使用能够在很大程度上提高驾驶人对限速的遵守程度。在借鉴美国限速方法及实施经验的基础上,指出我国在制定道路相关限速标准时,应结合国情确定限制速度与运行速度、设计速度之间的互动关系,以及限速与安全、执法等之间的关系。然后针对不同的道路类型、等级等特性研究采用不同的限速方案,解决速度区限速取值及不同速度区之间如何平滑过渡衔接等问题,明确了我国限速研究的基础性内容。     

中欧加等国对汽车噪声的限值要求及试验方法比较

对中、欧、加等国就汽车噪声的限值要求及试验方法作比较,并实测验证两种试验方法的差别。     

土工液塑限试验中的新方法应用与比较

针对公路与水电土工试验规程中所采用的作图法确定液塑限值而带来的诸多不便,采用数学解析法、最小二乘法、回归分析法计算液塑限试验数据,并将其编制成QBASIC程序上机处理,由此确定出的液限、塑限值较传统方法方便、快捷、准确。同时对公路与水电土工试验规程中所采用的不同圆锥下沉深度而计算出的液塑限值进行了比较。     

城市轨道交通路基沉降与无砟轨道轨面不平顺映射关系

路基沉降会影响轨面不平顺,为了分析路基沉降与无砟轨道轨面不平顺间的映射关系,基于温克尔弹性地基耦合梁理论和有限元方法,建立考虑层间接触非线性整体道床轨道梁-体空间有限元模型,对轨道自重荷载和设计列车动荷载作用下轨面不平顺与路基沉降间映射关系展开研究,并在此基础上,提出城市轨道交通无砟轨道线路路基不均匀沉降的安全限值。分析结果表明:路基发生不均匀沉降时,无砟轨道结构在自重荷载和列车动荷载作用下发生跟随性沉降变形,且各层沉降幅值从上到下依次增大;路基沉降幅值越大轨面不平顺越明显,20 m沉降波长条件下,沉降幅值超过25 mm时轨道结构与路基间易形成脱空;轨面不平顺对路基沉降波长也极为敏感,20 mm沉降幅值条件下,当沉降波长超过25 m时路基与轨道结构间脱空现象明显缓解,此时轨面不平顺基本可与路基变形保持一致。     

Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.     

软件可靠性估计模型的研究

通过对JM模型的研究,给出了一种新的软件可靠性模型,并给出了模型参数的点估计和置信区间.     

军用机场净空新规定与原规定的比较分析

针对使用单位在应用《军用机场净空规定》的过程中,容易将新规定与原规定内容混淆的问题,分析比较了机场净空新旧规定的差异,对新规定中净空要求的基本原则、净空区组成和障碍物限制要求等方面的修改进行了详细分析。通过比较分析新旧规定的区别,有利于使用者更好地理解和应用新规定。