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Uncertainty of outcome is widely recognised as a concern facing decision-makers and their advisors. In a number of spheres of policy, it appears uncertainty has intensified in the face of globalisation, economic instability, climate change, technological innovation and changing consumer preferences. How can planners and policymakers plan for an uncertain future? There is growing interest in, and use of, techniques that can help decision-making processes where deep uncertainty is involved. This paper is based upon one of the most recent international examples of a foresight exercise employed to examine uncertainty – specifically that which concerns uncertainty over the nature and extent of future demand for car travel. The principal focus of the paper is on the insights and guidance this examination of uncertainty brings forth for transport planning and policymaking. To accommodate deep uncertainty requires a flexible and open approach in terms of how policy and investment possibilities are formulated and judged. The paper argues for a focus upon the Triple Access System of spatial proximity, physical mobility and digital connectivity as a framework for policy and investment decisions that can harness flexibility and resilience. Uncertainty becomes an opportunity for decision-makers with the realisation that they are shaping the future rather than (only) responding to a predicted future. The paper outlines two forms of policymaking pathway: regime-compliant (in which adherence to trends and the nature of the world we have known pushes policy) and regime-testing (in which the nature of the world as we have known it is brought into question and vision pulls policy decisions). Stronger orientation towards regime-testing to assist in managing an uncertain future is advocated. 相似文献
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Travel demand forecasting is subject to great uncertainties. A systematic uncertainty analysis can provide insights into the level of confidence on the model outputs, and also identify critical sources of uncertainty for enhancing the robustness of the travel demand model. In this paper, we develop a systematic framework for quantitative uncertainty analysis of a combined travel demand model (CTDM) using the analytical sensitivity-based method. The CTDM overcomes limitations of the sequential four-step procedure since it is based on a single unifying rationale. The analytical sensitivity-based method requires less computational effort than the sampling-based method. Meanwhile, the uncertainties stemming from inputs and parameters can be treated separately so that the individual and collective effects of uncertainty on the outputs can be clearly assessed and quantified. Numerical examples are finally used to demonstrate the proposed sensitivity-based uncertainty analysis method for the CTDM. 相似文献
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Heteroscedastic Gaussian processes for uncertainty modeling in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data
Accurately modeling traffic speeds is a fundamental part of efficient intelligent transportation systems. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of GPS-enabled devices, it has become possible to crowdsource the collection of speed information to road users (e.g. through mobile applications or dedicated in-vehicle devices). Despite its rather wide spatial coverage, crowdsourced speed data also brings very important challenges, such as the highly variable measurement noise in the data due to a variety of driving behaviors and sample sizes. When not properly accounted for, this noise can severely compromise any application that relies on accurate traffic data. In this article, we propose the use of heteroscedastic Gaussian processes (HGP) to model the time-varying uncertainty in large-scale crowdsourced traffic data. Furthermore, we develop a HGP conditioned on sample size and traffic regime (SSRC-HGP), which makes use of sample size information (probe vehicles per minute) as well as previous observed speeds, in order to more accurately model the uncertainty in observed speeds. Using 6 months of crowdsourced traffic data from Copenhagen, we empirically show that the proposed heteroscedastic models produce significantly better predictive distributions when compared to current state-of-the-art methods for both speed imputation and short-term forecasting tasks. 相似文献
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本文根据城市公共停车场泊位占有率在时间上表现出的周期性及其随时间的变化趋势,不考虑其由于受各种随机因素影响所表现出的不确定性,将车辆进出停车场的行为看成可描述事件。利用离散分布模型描述行为进行,建立数学模型,表达经过某段时间后停车场的空余停泊位数。最后通过算例计算验证模型的可行性,可用于停车诱导屏的泊位预测。 相似文献
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铁路罐车容积测量不确定度的评定 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
根据国家计量技术规范“JJF1059—1999测量不确定度评定与表示”,针对铁路罐车容积测量不确定度进行研究,分别建立罐内测量法数学模型和罐外测量法数学模型。通过分析计算和评定,得出当包含因子取2时,采用罐内测量法和罐外测量法检定的铁路罐车容积扩展不确定度分别为2.6×10-3和2.9×10-3,符合“JJG140—1998铁路罐车容积”中当包含因子取2时“铁路罐车容积扩展不确定度小于4×10-3”的要求,表明我国铁路罐车容积的检定采用罐内测量法、罐外测量法是可行的。提出开展容量比较法、注水称重法的研究和研发铁路罐车容积自动测量装置,以完善铁路罐车容积的量传体系,与国际接轨,提高铁路罐车容积的计量准确性。 相似文献
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卿铭 《西南交通大学学报(英文版)》2004,12(1):87-90
Fuzzy entropy has been widely used to analyze and design fuzzy systems,and many fuzzy entropy formulae have been proposed.For further in-deepth analysis of fuzzy entropy,the axioms and some important formulae of fuzzy entropy are intoduced.Some equivalence results among these fuzzy entropy formulae are proved,and it is shown that fuzzy entropy is aspedal distance measurement. 相似文献
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移动闭塞信号系统的安全距离计算浅析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
从安全距离的基本概念、计算要求、所需考虑的参数及计算过程等方面,对移动闭塞信号系统的安全距离进行了初步的分析和探讨,得出了移动闭塞信号系统安全距离的一般计算原则和方法。 相似文献