基于强度折减法的黄土边坡可靠度分析

由于地质条件的复杂性,影响边坡稳定性因素存在着不同程度上的不确定性.因此,在边坡稳定性分析中,应考虑这些因素的不确定,对边坡进行可靠度分析.文中将有限元强度折减法和点估计法结合进行边坡的可靠度分析.对有限元强度折减法和点估计法的基本原理进行了简单介绍,将二者相结合进行一黄土边坡的可靠度分析.计算结果表明,该边坡整体上较稳定,但可能发生黄土层的浅层滑动,边坡的平均安全系数为1.10,处于基本稳定状态.边坡的破坏概率为26.5％,属于低危险等级,需对该边坡进行进一步的观测.有限元强度折减法和点估计法相结合,可方便、简捷地对边坡可靠性进行评价.

Reliability Analysis of Loess Slope Based on Shear Strength Reduction Method

The slopes＇ parameters have many uncertainties due to the complexity of the geological con- dition. So when analysing the stability of a slope, the parameters＇ uncertainties need to be taken into account, and the slope should have a reliability analysis. In this paper, Shear strength reduction method and point estimation method are combined to analyse the slopes reliability. Firstly, the funda- mental theories of these two methods are introduced briefly, then combine these two methods to ana- lyse a loess slope＇s reliability. The result shows that： the slope is mainly stable, but it may have a shallow slide, the average safety factor of the slope is 1.10, belongs to mainly stable, and its proba- bility of failure is 26.5 %, belongs to low dangerous. So the slope needs to be a further observation. The combination of the shear strength reduction method and point estimation method can be easily used to estimate the reliability of the slope.