综合运输层次下多交通模式的耦合协调性分析

针对综合运输中多交通模式的耦合协调问题，定量明确了耦合协调性概念.首先分析建立起动静结合的多层次评定要素主框架，并给出了同时考虑综合发展水平和耦合协调度判断模型的方法；然后运用我国 2006-2015年公路、铁路、水运、航空 4类运输方式数据集，对多交通模式间的耦合协调情况进行求解分析与讨论验证，指出了水路和公路子系统协调发展中的短板；最后提出了有针对性的评价建议与改善举措.实例结果表明，该建模方法论体系及指标选用科学有效，能够为多式联运组织运营的政策制定、管理规划等提供有益参考借鉴和指导依据.

Multimodal Coupling Coordination Analyses at the Comprehensive Transportation Level

In view of the multimodal coupling and coordination problems in integrated transportation, a concept of coupling coordination is quantified and clarified. First of all, the main frame of multi-level evaluation elements for dynamic and static combination is established, and a method of modeling judgment considering both comprehensive development level and coupling coordination degrees is given. Then, we use the four types of transport datasets (highway, railway, waterway and aviation) during 2006 to 2015 in China to calculate, understand, analyze and discuss the coupling coordination situation among multiple traffic modes. The shortcomings in coordinated development of the waterway and highway subsystems are pointed out, and finally targeted assessment suggestions and improvement measures are put forward simultaneously. The experimental results show that this modeling methodology and the selection of indicators are scientific and effective, which can provide useful reference and/or guidance for policy formulation and management planning of multimodal transportation operations.