铁路客运专线BOT项目投标方案风险评价模型

研究目的:随着我国建设资金短缺和基础设施不足的矛盾日益突出,采用国际上流行的BOT方式加快铁路等基础设施的建设已是时代发展的必然。投标人能否取得投标成功,关键在于其投标方案的优劣。由于BOT项目具有周期长、资金投入规模大、技术复杂、可变因素多、风险大等特点,使得投标人在制定投标方案时存在很大的风险。研究结论:从系统论的角度出发,建立基于风险分析的铁路客运专线BOT投标方案决策评价指标体系,并运用灰色局势决策模型进行评价。影响铁路BOT项目风险的因素众多,且各因素的相互影响关系难以确定。目前常用的评价方法有模糊综合评判模型、人工神经网络优选模型等,这些评价方法各有自身的优势,但也存在很大的缺陷。表现为各方案的综合优化指标值差异不明显,模型结果受主观因素影响,尤其是没有充分考虑铁路客运专线BOT项目所面临的高风险。该模型结果不受主观因素影响,更好的揭示了各方案的综合优化指标值差异,较传统方法更精确,更有效。同时该模型具有一定的通用性,可用于评价基于风险分析的高速公路、电力等BOT项目投标方案。

Evaluation Model for Bidding Risk of BOT Project of Passenger Dedicated Line

Research purposes: With the shortage of construction funds and inadequate infrastructure being increasingly prominent in China,to speed up the construction of railways and other infrastructure with the commonly-used BOT mode in the world is inevitable of the development of the era.The bidding scheme quality is crucial to the success bidding.As the BOT project has the features of long construction period,large construction investment,needing complex technology,many changeable factors and big project risk,the bidder will take the big risk when drawing up the bidding scheme. Research conclusions:Staring with the system theory,the decision-making evaluation index system is established for the bidding scheme for the BOT project of passenger dedicated line and the evaluation is made with grey situation decision-making model.In the railway BOT project,there are lots of factors to influence the project risks and it is difficult to determine the relations among the influence factors.Now the commonly-used evaluation methods include the comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model,ANN model and so on.These methods have their own advantages,but also they have disadvantages.With these methods,the differences of the comprehensive optimization index values are not obvious of various schemes and the model results are affected by the objective factors.Especially,with these methods,the high risks of railway BOT project can not be considered.The result of the model presented in this paper can not be affected by the objective factors,so this model is more accurate and effective in revealing the differences of the comprehensive optimization index values of various bidding schemes.This model has universal property,so it can be available for BOT projects of the highway and power supply.