居民出行时间选择及拥挤收费政策

应用基于活动的出行需求预测方法，分析了居民出行的时间分布规律与影响居民出行时间选择的因素，分别建立了出发和到达时间选择模型，用长春市居民出行调查数据对模型进行了标定和验证。用已建模型对比评价了两种拥挤收费政策，证明了调整高峰时段小汽车出行费用策略不仅可以使居民的高峰时段出行减少大约18％，而且可以抑制小汽车出行，调整城市交通方式分配结构，说明已建模型可以全面有效地进行交通需求管理政策的评价。

Resident travel time choice and congestion pricing policy

The distribution rules of resident travel time and the influence factors of resident travel time choice were analysed by activity-based travel demand forecasting method, two time choice models that could forecast the time of the start and end points of a trip were developed respectively, the models were estimated and validated with the survey data in Changehun city. It is proved that two strategies of increasing ear costs in peak periods not only can reduce resident travel by 18% in peak time periods, but also restrain resident travel by ear and adjust traffic mode structure in urban area. The results indicate that established activity-based time choice models can completely and effectively evaluate transportation management policy. 5 tabs, 3 figs, 7 refs.