基于江海联运的长江沿线港口集装箱吞吐量分析预测

在长江集装箱货源市场调查分析的基础上,根据长江沿岸集装箱发展形势,结合长江各港口发展情况及其历年数据调查,分析长江沿岸省市的外贸现状、经济趋势、集装箱发展特点,考虑集装箱生成量和港口吞吐量预测的影响因素,运用科学合理的方法,对2006—2010年长江(上、中、下游)沿岸外贸集装箱生成量、流向,以及长江沿岸省市至洋山江海联运量进行预测分析。

Container Volume Forecast of Port Along the Yangtze River Based on River/Sea Combined Transport

On the basis of market survey and analysis of the Yangtze River container goods,in accordance with the development tendency and the historic data of ports along the Yangtze River,this paper analyzes the characteristics of foreign trade,economic trend and container goods development of the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River.Forecasts to the foreign trade container volume generation and directions along the Yangtze River(the upper,middle and lower reaches)as well as the container volume of sea/river combined transport from the provinces and cities along the Yangtze River to Yangshan from 2006 to 2010 are made by taking account of influential factors of container volume and port throughput forecast,and with scientific and reasonable method.