| 居民出行分布预测的改进模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓明君,王铁中. 居民出行分布预测的改进模型研究[J]. 交通与计算机, 2010, 28(3): 35-37,50 |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓明君 王铁中 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华东交通大学土木建筑学院,南昌,330013
2. 赣粤高速工路工程公司,南昌,330013 |
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| 基金项目： | 华东交通大学校立课题项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 出行分布量与小区间现状出行有关,也与连接两小区间的道路网络及起终点的用地性质有关,传统出行分布预测模型都只考虑了这些因素的某一方面,因而在预测中经常会出现与实际明显不符的预测结果。按照出行个体在选择出行目的地时的行为,将影响出行目的地选择的几个重要因素：现状OD、小区用地性质、出行成本综合考虑,并按照影响方式不同,建立出行分布预测模型。计算实例表明,该模型的预测结果优于传统模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通规划 交通需求预测 出行分布 吸引强度指标 |
An Improved Model for Trip Distribution Forecast |
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| DENG Mingjun,WONG Tiezhong. An Improved Model for Trip Distribution Forecast[J]. Computer and Communications, 2010, 28(3): 35-37,50 |
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| Authors: | DENG Mingjun WONG Tiezhong |
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| Affiliation: | DENG Mingjun WONG Tiezhong(Civil architecture School,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China)1(GanYue Freeway Engineering Corporation,Nanchang 330013,China)2 |
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| Abstract: | Trip distribution between two districts are dependent on,in addition to the origin-destination pattern and land use,trip production and trip attraction growth factors in the two areas and the roads that connect them.The traditional trip distribution models only take into account one of these factors.Therefore,the forecast results do not realistically reflect the reality.This paper describes a method to forecast future trip distribution by imitating the behaviors of traveler in selecting destination.It takes OD matrix,urban land use,trip cost as the model factors to build a comprehensive trip distribution model.The model was applied to trip distribution forecast.The result shows that the improved model produces more consistent results with the actual trip distribution data. |
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| Keywords: | trip planning trip demand forecasting trip distribution attraction intensity index |
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