| 基于类比分析的深圳市特区外出租车需求量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙喜梅,李猛,韩彪.基于类比分析的深圳市特区外出租车需求量预测[J].交通与计算机,2009,27(5):19-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙喜梅 李猛 韩彪 |
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| 作者单位： | 深圳大学经济学院,广东,深圳,518060 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省高校人文社会科学规划研究项目(批准号:04GH79012)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 城市出租车需求来源于社会活动的需要，深圳特区外出租车的需求受到该地区经济发展水平、人口数量、土地规模、运输价格等多种因素的影响。文中介绍了城市出租车类比分析的原理和方法，并建立了城市出租车类比分析预测模型，通过运用类比城市实际的数据，预测了深圳市特区外出租车的目前和远景需求量。
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| 关 键 词： | 出租车 需求预测 指数平滑 类比分析 |
Demand Forecast of Taxi outside Shenzhen Special Zone Based on Analog Method |
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| SUN Ximei,LI Meng,HAN Biao.Demand Forecast of Taxi outside Shenzhen Special Zone Based on Analog Method[J].Computer and Communications,2009,27(5):19-23. |
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| Authors: | SUN Ximei LI Meng HAN Biao |
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| Institution: | Business School;Shenzhen University;Shenzhen 518060;Guangdong;China |
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| Abstract: | The need for city taxis comes from the social-economic activities in the area.In general,the demand of taxi running outside Shenzhen Special Zone is affected by several key factors,such as the level of economic development,population,land size,transportation prices and other factors.This paper presents analog principles and methods to establish a city taxi model.It can be applied to quantitatively predicting the current and long-term demand of taxi running outside Shenzhen Special Zone. |
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| Keywords: | taxi demand forecast exponential smoothing analog method |
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