| 基于贝叶斯网络的HRA研究在舰船PSA中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 闾晨光,浦金云,侯岳.基于贝叶斯网络的HRA研究在舰船PSA中的应用[J].江苏科技大学学报(社会科学版),2009,23(5):377-382. |
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| 作者姓名： | 闾晨光 浦金云 侯岳 |
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| 作者单位： | 海军工程大学,舰艇安全技术系,湖北,武汉,430033 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析概率安全评价对人因可靠性分析的本质需求，运用人为失误率预计技术与人的认知可靠性模型相结合的方法对概率安全评价中的人因事故进行分析计算，并针对传统事件树、故障树分析方法的局限性，采用了贝叶斯网络结构评估的方法将计算结果合理融入到整体中．通过舰船弹药库的起火实例分析说明了该方法的运用过程和有效性．
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| 关 键 词： | 概率安全评价 人因可靠性分析 贝叶斯网络 事件树 故障树 |
Research on HRA in the ship PSA based on Bayesian network |
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| Lv Chenguang,Pu Jinyun,Hou Yue.Research on HRA in the ship PSA based on Bayesian network[J].Journal of Jiangsu University of Science and Technology:Natural Science Edition,2009,23(5):377-382. |
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| Authors: | Lv Chenguang Pu Jinyun Hou Yue |
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| Institution: | ( College of Architecture and Power Engineering, Naval University of Engineering, Wuhan Hubei 430033, China) |
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| Abstract: | Considering the fundamental demand of the PSA （ Probabilistic Safety Assessment） upon HRA （ Human Reliability Analysis）, the human errors in the PSA were analyzed and calculated by the technology for human error rate prediction and the human cognitive reliability. Because of the deficiency of event tree and fault tree, Bayesian network was used to integrate the result into the PSA. An example of fire accident analysis of magazine in warship was given to demonstrate the process and effectiveness of the method. |
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| Keywords: | probabilistic safety assessment human reliability analysis Bayesian networks event tree fault tree |
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