预测通道客运分担率的MNL模型特性变量选取

基于非集计离散选择模型理论,结合通道内各种运输方式特性,给出了在运用MNL模型预测通道客运分担率时特性变量的选取原则。分析了影响旅客出行方式选择的出行时间、安全性、舒适性、方便性、费用等因素间的关系以及各因素作为特性变量的适应性,认为在运用MNL模型预测通道客运分担率时应选取出行时间、费用收入比和发车频率作为特性变量,并给出了各特性变量的取值标定方法。结合旅客出行特征调查数据,进行了实证分析和各个特性变量灵敏度分析,得出制定客运专线运营策略时应主要考虑出行时间、费用和出行者收入变化影响的结论。

MNL Model Characteristic Variables Selection on Forecasting Corridor Mode Split

Based on the theory of disaggregate discrete choice and characteristics of different transportation mode in transportation corridor,the selection principle of utility function explanation variables of MNL model was determined.According to the selection principle,relationship among travel mode split influencing factors such as travel time,safety,comfort,convenience,cost and adaptability of these factors as characteristic variables were analyzed in the paper;travel time,departure frequency and relative cost(cost divide by income) should be considered as characteristic variables when forecasting transportation corridor mode split by MNL model;meanwhile,corresponding calibration method was given.According to travel mode split data,empirical analysis and sensibility of the characteristic variables analysis were carried out by MNL model.The parameters indicated that the influence of travel time,cost and change of income should be taken into consideration while making operation strategies of passenger dedicate line.