岩土参数统计特征的贝叶斯估计

岩土参数的统计特征，如平均值、标准差对于岩土参数设计分析的可靠性至关重要。准确估计这些统计特征通常需要较多岩土参数的试验数据。实际工程中，由于工程预算、工程周期等原因导致具体场地所得岩土参数数据相对较少。试验数据的相对稀疏以及在工程设计中对岩土参数统计特征的需求经常使得工程师在工程实践中陷入困境。为了解决这一问题，利用贝叶斯估计的方法，将工程经验和少量的试验数据系统地耦合起来，进而帮助估计岩土参数的统计特征。同时以工程实例加以说明，并以模拟数据进行验证。

Estimation of Statistics of Geotechnical Parameters Using a Bayesian Method

Statistical characteristics, such as mean and standard deviation of geotechnical parameters play an important role in the reliability of design and analysis of geotechnical parameters. Accurate estimation of these statistical characteristics generally requires a relatively large number of test data of geotechnical parameters. In geotechnical engineering practice, the number of test data collected from a specific site is often sparse and limited due to the construction budget and duration. Therefore, the sparse and limited test data and the need of statistical characteristics of geotechnical parameters in engineering design constitutes a dilemma, which is frequently encountered by geotechnical engineers. To address this problem, a Bayesian method is used to systematically integrate the engineering knowledge with the sparse test data to obtain the estimation of statistical characteristics of geotechnical parameters. In the meantime, both project cases and simulated data are also adopted for illustration and validation.