| 新疆兵团道路运输业发展趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张艳云,张劲,艾力·斯木吐拉,马雯.新疆兵团道路运输业发展趋势分析[J].交通科技与经济,2012,14(6):4-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张艳云 张劲 艾力·斯木吐拉 马雯 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 新疆农业大学机械交通学院,新疆乌鲁木齐,830052
2. 新疆生产建设兵团交通局,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002 |
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| 基金项目： | 新疆生产建设兵团交通局资助课题（GL4-1-201103） |
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| 摘 要： | 在对新疆生产建设兵团道路运输业现状分析的基础上,通过利用一元线性回归模型、平均增长率法以及灰色预测法三种方法分别对兵团2011～2015年的道路旅客运输量、道路货物运输量、道路旅客运输周转量、道路货物运输周转量等进行预测。结果显示,在未来5年当中道路旅客运输以年均7.7%增长,道路货物运输以年均9.2%增长,道路旅客周转量以年均10.6%增长,道路运输货物周转量以年均12.6%增长。
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| 关 键 词： | 道路运输 现状与趋势 预测模型 新疆兵团 |
The development trend of road transportation of Xinjiang Production ＆ Construction Group |
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| ZHANG Yan-yun,ZHANG Jin,Eli IsmutullaI,MA Wen.The development trend of road transportation of Xinjiang Production ＆ Construction Group[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2012,14(6):4-8. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yan-yun ZHANG Jin Eli IsmutullaI MA Wen |
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| Institution: | 1 (1. School of Mechanical Engineer and Communications, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China;2. Road Transport Bureau of Xinjiang Production ＆ Construction Group, Urumqi 830002 ,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the present situation of Xinjiang Production ＆ Construction Group road transporta- tion industry, it presents three methods： a linear regression model, the average growth rate method and grey forecasting method to predict respectively in 2011 to 2015 the road passenger corridor, road cargo traffic volume, road passenger transport volume, and road transport of goods. The results show that in the next five years road passenger transport, on average, 7.7% growth, road cargo transport, 9.2%, the road passenger turnover, 10. 6%, and road transport goods at an annual turnover of 12.6%. |
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| Keywords: | road transportation current situation and trend forecasting model Xinjiang Production Construction Group |
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