道路危险货物运输的系统动力学仿真研究

道路危险货物运输管理是道路运输管理的重要内容。为研究各类危险货物供需与社会经济发展之间的互动关系，采用了系统动力学的理论。首先确定道路危险货物运输系统边界，将道路危险货物运输系统分为运力子系统和需求子系统，建立道路危险货物运输因果关系图，探究系统内各因素之间的正负反馈关系；接着，引入危险货物供需系数，建立道路危险货物运输系统流图；通过建立主要变量方程，表示出系统内各因素之间的线性关系和非线性关系；进行模型检验，包括真实性检验和敏感性分析；最后，对变量设置初始值，利用建立的道路危险货物运输系统动力学模型，探讨使危险货物供需系数的行为模式保持稳定的可行性策略。以广东省惠州市汽油运输为例，分析影响危险货物供需系数的主要因素，设置7种政策情境，运用VENSIM软件进行仿真模拟。研究结果表明：提高运输车辆利用程度及货物运输效率可有效提高供需系数；增大运输车辆吨位数，调整危险货物运力结构能够改善供需情况，使供需系数提高；增大运力后，供需系数的行为模式趋于平稳；综合调控各因素对改善供需系数行为模式的效果更好。研究建立的道路危险货物运输系统模型能够有效模拟管理调控策略，为道路运输管理部门相关工作的改进与提升提供支撑。

Study on System Dynamics Simulation of Road Dangerous Cargo Transportation

The management of road dangerous cargo transportation is an important content of road transportation management. To study the interaction between supply and demand of all kinds of dangerous cargo and social economy development, based on system dynamics theory, this paper firstly determined the boundary of road transportation system of dangerous cargo, and divided the system into subsystems of capacity and demand and introduced the supply and demand coefficient of dangerous cargo. The causality diagram was set up to explore the positive and negative feedback relations between the various factors. Secondly, the supply and demand coefficient of dangerous cargo was introduced to establish the flow diagram. By establishing the main variable equations, the linear relation and nonlinear relation between the factors in the system were expressed. The model was tested, including authenticity test and sensitivity analysis. Finally, the initial values were set. The model was set up to study the feasible strategies of making the behavior patterns of supply and demand coefficient stable. Taking gas transportation in Huizhou City, Guangdong Province as an example, the main factors affecting the coefficient were analyzed to simulate the model. 7 policy scenarios were set up, and the software named VENSIM was used for simulation The results show that increasing the utilization degree and transportation efficiency of vehicles can effectively improve the coefficient. Increasing the tonnage of transport vehicles and adjusting the capacity structure of dangerous cargo can improve the situation on supply and demand and increase the coefficient. After increasing capacity, the behavior pattern of supply and demand coefficient tends to be stable. Comprehensive regulation is better to improve the performance of the behavior pattern of supply and demand coefficient. The model can effectively simulate the management control strategy and provide support for the improvement and improvement of road transportation management department.