基于熵权可拓物元模型的公路项目社会稳定风险评估方法

为了加强中国公路风险评估与管理水平，以国家开展重大建设项目社会稳定风险评估的要求为基础，提出科学、合理并具有适应性的公路项目社会稳定风险评估方法。首先，根据公路项目建设各个阶段的特点，从公路项目内部因素和外部条件两方面分析了其社会稳定风险因素的类型与内涵，建立了以公路项目风险内因指标与外因指标为主体的公路社会稳定风险评估指标体系。其次，提出了基于熵权可拓物元模型的公路项目社会稳定风险评估方法，该方法通过对各项指标进行经典域的划分和关联度函数构建，以熵作为客观评价项目风险评估指标的权重，计算综合关联度值，进而给出评判公路项目社会稳定风险的等级。实证分析以青兰线东阿界至聊城（鲁冀界）段项目为例，基于所提方法，识别了项目全过程的18个内因与外因风险指标，计算得出其社会稳定风险综合等级为"风险中等"；针对识别出的风险偏高指标设计并采用相应的风险防范措施，经过再次评估得出该项目风险等级为"风险低"。研究结果表明：所构建的公路社会稳定风险评估指标体系是切实可行的；所提出的基于熵权物元模型的公路项目社会稳定风险评估方法，能够实现客观有效地评估公路项目社会稳定风险，同时还有助于加强项目风险防范措施的针对性。研究成果对公路项目社会稳定风险评估及项目各阶段的风险管理具有重要的支撑作用。

Evaluation Method for Highway Project Social Stability Risk Based on Entropy Weight Extension Matter-element Model

To strengthen the risk assessment and management level of China's highways and to meet the requirements of the national social stability risk assessment of major construction projects, a scientific, reasonable, and adaptive social stability risk assessment method is proposed. Based on the characteristics of each stage of a highway project life cycle, the types and implications of social stability risk factors were first analyzed using the internal factors and external conditions of the highway project, and the highway social stability risk indicatior system comprising internal and external risk indicators of highway projects was established. Subsequently, the entropy weight extension matter-element model was applied to assess the highway social stability risk. The comprehensive correlation was calculated by combining the classical domain division and correlation functions of each indicator and entropy as a weight of the objective evaluation of the project risk assessment indicator; the social stability risk level of the highway project was then identified. Considering the Qinghai Line Dong'ajie to Liaocheng (Luyijie) section project (LJJ project) as a case for empirical analysis, 18 internal risk factors and external risk indicators were identified in the processes related to the project using the proposed method. The social stability risk level of the LJJ project was previously evaluated as "medium risk"; upon implementing the designed specific prevention and control measures, the risk level of the project was re-evaluated as "low risk". These analysis results show that the overall framework of the highway social stability risk assessment indicator system is feasible. The highway project social stability risk assessment method based on the entropy weight matter-element model can not only objectively and effectively assess the social stability risk of highway projects but also help identify the associated risk measures. Therefore, this study is applicable to the social stability risk assessments of highway projects and risk management at all stages of the project cycle.