A random-parameter hazard-based model to understand household evacuation timing behavior |
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| Institution: | 1. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States;2. University of Delaware, Newark, DE, United States;1. The University of Texas at Austin, Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, 301 E. Dean Keeton St. Stop C1761, Austin, TX 78712, United States;2. King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia;3. Parsons Brinckerhoff, 999 3rd Ave, Suite 3200, Seattle, WA 98104, United States;4. King Abdulaziz University, Department of Civil Engineering, P.O. Box 80204, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia;1. Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, 7054 Haycock Road, Falls Church, VA 22043, USA;3. Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Florida International University, 3000 NE 151st Street, North Miami, FL 33181, USA;1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, ENB 118, Tampa, FL 33620, United States;2. College of Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue, ENC 3506, Tampa, FL 33620, United States;3. Department of Civil Engineering, Center of Infrastructure, Sustainable Transportation, and Urban Planning, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India;1. Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, 12800 Pegasus Drive, Orlando, FL, United States;2. School of Science and Engineering, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, United States |
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| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to develop a random-parameter hazard-based model to understand hurricane evacuation timing by individual households. The choice of departure time during disasters is a complex dynamic process and depends on the risk that the hazard represents, the characteristics of the household and the built environment features. However, the risk responses are heterogeneous across the households; this unobserved heterogeneity is captured through random parameters in the model. The model is estimated with data from Hurricane Ivan including households from Alabama, Louisiana, Florida and Mississippi. It is found that the variables related to household location, destination characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, evacuation notice and household decision making are key determinants of the departure time. As such the developed model provides some fundamental inferences about hurricane evacuation timing behavior. |
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